How are large western hemisphere warm pools formed?

During the boreal summer the Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) stretches from the eastern North Pacific to the tropical North Atlantic and is a key feature of the climate of the Americas and Africa. In the summers following nine El Niño events during 1950–2000, there have been five instances of extraordinarily large warm pools averaging about twice the climatological annual size. These large warm pools have induced a strengthened divergent circulation aloft and have been associated with rainfall anomalies throughout the western hemisphere tropics and subtropics and with more frequent hurricanes. However, following four other El Niño events large warm pools did not develop, such that the mere existence of El Niño during the boreal winter does not provide the basis for predicting an anomalously large warm pool the following summer.In this paper, we find consistency with the hypothesis that large warm pools result from an anomalous divergent circulation forced by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Pacific, the so-called atmospheric bridge. We also find significant explanations for why large warm pools do not always develop. If the El Niño event ends early in the eastern Pacific, the Pacific warm anomaly lacks the persistence needed to force the atmospheric bridge and the Atlantic portion of the warm pool remains normal. If SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific do not last much beyond February of the following year, then the eastern North Pacific portion of the warm pool remains normal. The overall strength of the Pacific El Niño does not appear to be a critical factor. We also find that when conditions favor a developing atmospheric bridge and the winter atmosphere over the North Atlantic conforms to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern (as in 1957–58 and 1968–69), the forcing is reinforced and the warm pool is stronger. On the other hand, if a positive NAO pattern develops the warm pool may remain normal even if other circumstances favor the atmospheric bridge, as in 1991–92. Finally, we could find little evidence that interactions internal to the tropical Atlantic are likely to mitigate for or against the formation of the largest warm pools, although they may affect smaller warm pool fluctuations or the warm pool persistence.     

Parameter sensitivity of three Kalman filter schemes for assimilation of water levels in shelf sea models

In applications of data assimilation algorithms, a number of poorly known assimilation parameters usually need to be specified. Hence, the documented success of data assimilation methodologies must rely on a moderate sensitivity to these parameters. This contribution presents a parameter sensitivity study of three well known Kalman filter approaches for the assimilation of water levels in a three dimensional hydrodynamic modelling system. The filters considered are the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the reduced rank square root Kalman filter (RRSQRT) and the steady Kalman filter. A sensitivity analysis of key parameters in the schemes is undertaken for a setup in an idealised bay. The sensitivity of the resulting root mean square error (RMSE) is shown to be low to moderate. Hence the schemes are robust within an acceptable range and their application even with misspecified parameters is to be encouraged in this perspective. However, the predicted uncertainty of the assimilation results are sensitive to the parameters and hence must be applied with care. The sensitivity study further demonstrates the effectiveness of the steady Kalman filter in the given system as well as the great impact of assimilating even very few measurements.     

Record-breaking chemical destruction of ozone in the arctic during the winter of 2004/2005

The extremely cold winter of 2004/2005 was accompanied by an intensive formation of polar stratospheric clouds and a significant chemical destruction of ozone. The results of calculating chemical losses of ozone in the polar cyclone from the SAGE-III satellite data are given. Over the period January 1–March 25, 2005, at the isentropic levels 450–500 K, about 60% of ozone was destroyed. During that winter, the zone of formation of polar stratospheric clouds went down to levels with very low values of potential temperature (down to 350 K), thus resulting in a noticeable destruction of ozone at low altitudes. By March 25, 2005, the chemical losses of total ozone attained 116 ± 10 DU (128 ± 10 DU at the cyclone boundary), which is a recordbreaking value of the Arctic.     

Analysis of seabed instability using element free Galerkin method

Wave-induced seabed instability, either momentary liquefaction or shear failure, is an important topic in ocean and coastal engineering. Many factors, such as seabed properties and wave parameters, affect the seabed instability. A non-dimensional parameter is proposed in this paper to evaluate the occurrence of momentary liquefaction. This parameter includes the properties of the soil and the wave. The determination of the wave-induced liquefaction depth is also suggested based on this non-dimensional parameter. As an example, a two-dimensional seabed with finite thickness is numerically treated with the EFGM meshless method developed early for wave-induced seabed responses. Parametric study is carried out to investigate the effect of wavelength, compressibility of pore fluid, permeability and stiffness of porous media, and variable stiffness with depth on the seabed response with three criteria for liquefaction. It is found that this non-dimensional parameter is a good index for identifying the momentary liquefaction qualitatively, and the criterion of liquefaction with seepage force can be used to predict the deepest liquefaction depth.     

南沙群岛海区晚第四纪碳酸盐沉积

本文研究了五个柱状沉积物的碳酸盐沉积。根据沉积物的陆源碎屑和生物骨屑ＣａＣＯ３沉积作用的特点，把本区沉积物分为五种沉积类；碳酸盐生物组成的门类较多，以有孔虫为主，其次为珊瑚，腹足类等；碳酸盐矿物以低镁方解石为主，还有高镁方解石和文石；与沉积物中ＣａＣＯ３有关的化学元素１０多种。这些元素和稀土元素的含量，比值等，是区分礁相，礁体过渡带和非礁相的标志。所有这些碳酸盐沉积作用的特点表明，区内存在着五种沉     

Evidence for sinistral strike-slip deformation in The Solomon Island arc

During the SOPACMAPS 2 crusie carried out by IFREMER (Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer) and ORSTOM (Institut Français de Recherche Scientifique pour le dévelopement en Coopération) on theR/V L'Atalante, in the Central Solomon Arc area, multibeam bathymetric and imagery data and single-channel seismic reflection profiles were collected from an area of about 3500 km², to evaluate regional tectonics. Structural data geophysical profiles interpretation provide evidence for left-lateral transtensional tectonics on the southern edge of the Central Solomon Trough. This transtensional deformation is represented by faulting, block tilting, and rhombohedral deformation. The regional geology and the analysis of the sedimentary cover allow us to demonstrate that this tectonic occurred in two different phases during Oligocene to Miocene and Pliocene to Pleistocene times.     

Accelerated relative sea-level rise and rapid coastal erosion:: testing a causal relationship for the Louisiana barrier islands

The role of relative sea-level rise as a cause for the rapid erosion of Louisiana's barrier island coast is investigated through a numerical implementation of a modified Bruun rule that accounts for the low percentage of sand-sized sediment in the eroding Louisiana shoreface. Shore-normal profiles from 150 km of coastline west of the Mississippi delta are derived from bathymetric surveys conducted during the 1880s, 1930s and 1980s. An RMS difference criterion is employed to test whether an equilibrium profile form is maintained between survey years. Only about half the studied profiles meet the equilibrium criterion; this represents a significant limitation on the potential applicability of the Bruun rule. The profiles meeting the equilibrium criterion, along with measured rates of relative sea-level rise, are used to hindcast shoreline retreat rates at 37 locations within the study area. Modeled and observed shoreline retreat rates show no significant correlation. Thus, in terms of the Bruun approach, relative sea-level rise has no power for hindcasting (and presumably forecasting) rates of coastal erosion for the Louisiana barrier islands.     

用样条函数计算结果研究冲绳海槽热源机制

对冲绳海槽１９８４－１９９０年的实测热流值，利用数字滤波方法计算，得到反映该区深部地壳热状态的区域热流值为８０－１６０ｍＷ／ｍ＾２，用Ｂ样条函数法对其作数值模拟，计算出海槽地温场模式，并以此研究冲绳海槽海底高热流的形成机制，得出冲绳海槽热流值的区域性变化与綦中地质构造格局呈正相关，高热流是该区现代构造活动所致，其明显特征是地壳减薄，地幔上拱等结论。