Critical rainfall statistics for predicting watershed flood responses: rethinking the design storm concept

Recent advances have been made to modernize estimates of probable precipitation scenarios; however, researchers and engineers often continue to assume that rainfall events can be described by a small set of event statistics, typically average intensity and event duration. Given the easy availability of precipitation data and advances in desk‐top computational tools, we suggest that it is time to rethink the ‘design storm’ concept. Design storms should include more holistic characteristics of flood‐inducing rain events, which, in addition to describing specific hydrologic responses, may also be watershed or regionally specific. We present a sensitivity analysis of nine precipitation event statistics from observed precipitation events within a 60‐year record for Tompkins County, NY, USA. We perform a two‐sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to objectively identify precipitation event statistics of importance for two related hydrologic responses: (1) peak outflow from the Six Mile Creek watershed and (2) peak depth within the reservoir behind the Six Mile Creek Dam. We identify the total precipitation depth, peak hourly intensity, average intensity, event duration, interevent duration, and several statistics defining the temporal distribution of precipitation events to be important rainfall statistics to consider for predicting the watershed flood responses. We found that the two hydrologic responses had different sets of statistically significant parameters. We demonstrate through a stochastic precipitation generation analysis the effects of starting from a constrained parameter set (intensity and duration) when predicting hydrologic responses as opposed to utilizing an expanded suite of rainfall statistics. In particular, we note that the reduced precipitation parameter set may underestimate the probability of high stream flows and therefore underestimate flood hazard. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bayes estimation: A novel approach to derivation of internally consistent thermodynamic data for minerals,their uncertainties,and correlations. Part II: Application

Internally consistent thermodynamic data, including their uncertainties and correlations, are reported for 22 phases of the quaternary system CaO-Al₂O₃-SiO₂-H₂O. These data have been derived by simultaneous evaluation of the appropriate phase properties (PP) and reaction properties (RP) by the novel technique of Bayes estimation (BE). The thermodynamic model used and the theory of BE was expounded in Part I of this paper. Part II is the follow-up study illustrating an application of BE. The input for BE comprised, among others, the a priori values for standard enthalpy of formation of the i-th phase, Δ_f H _i ⁰ , and its standard entropy, S _i ⁰ , in addition to the reaction reversal constraints for 33 equilibria involving the relevant phases. A total of 269 RP restrictions have been processed, of which 107 turned out to be non-redundant. The refined values for Δ_f H _i ⁰ and S _i ⁰ obtained by BE, including their 2σ-uncertainties, appear in Table 4; the Appendix reproduces the corresponding correlation matrix. These data permit generation of computed phase diagrams with 2σ-uncertainty envelopes based on conventional error propagation; Fig. 3 depicts such a phase diagram for the system CaO-Al₂O₃-SiO₂. It shows that the refined dataset is capable of yielding phase diagrams with uncertainty envelopes narrow enough to be geologically useful. The results in Table 4 demonstrate that the uncertainties of the prior values for Δ_f H _i ^Emphasis>0 , given in Table 1, have decreased by up to an order of magnitude, while those for S _i ⁰ improved by a factor of up to two. For comparison, Table 4 also lists the refined Δ_f H _i ⁰ and S _i ⁰ data obtained by mathematical programming (MAP), minimizing a quadratic objective function used earlier by Berman (1988). Examples of calculated phase diagrams are given to demonstrate the advantages of BE for deriving internally consistent thermodynamic data. Although P-T curves generated from both MAP and BE databases will pass through the reversal restrictions, BE datasets appear to be better suited for extrapolations beyond the P-T range explored experimentally and for predicting equilibria not constrained by reversals.     

Fluid evolution of the Hub Stock, Horní Slavkov–Krásno Sn–W ore district, Bohemian Massif, Czech Republic

The Horní Slavkov–Krásno Sn–W ore district is hosted by strongly altered Variscan topaz–albite granite (Krudum granite body) on the northwestern margin of the Bohemian Massif. We studied the fluid inclusions on greisens, ore pockets, and ore veins from the Hub Stock, an apical expression of the Krudum granite. Fluid inclusions record almost continuously the post-magmatic cooling history of the granite body from ～500 to <50°C. Rarely observed highest-temperature (～500°C) highest-salinity (～30?wt.% NaCl eq.) fluid inclusions are probably the result of secondary boiling of fluids exsolved from the crystallizing magma during pressure release which followed hydraulic brecciation of the gneissic mantle above the granite cupola. The greisenization was related to near-critical low-salinity (0–7?wt.% NaCl eq.) aqueous fluids with low amount of CO₂, CH₄, and N₂ (≤10?mol% in total) at temperatures of ～350–400°C and pressures of 300–530 bar. Crush-leach data display highly variable and negatively correlated I/Cl and Br/Cl values which are incompatible with both orthomagmatic and/or metamorphic origin of the fluid phase, but can be explained by infiltration of surficial and/or sedimentary fluids. Low fluid salinity indicates a substantial portion of meteoric waters in the fluid mixture that is in accordance with previous stable isotope data. The post-greisenization fluid activity associated with vein formation and argillitization is characterized by decreasing temperature (<350 to <50°C), decreasing pressure (down to ～50–100 bar), and mostly also decreasing salinity.     

Environmental Determinants of Emergent Macrophyte Vegetation in Pacific Northwest Estuarine Tidal Wetlands

We investigated whether within wetland environmental conditions or surrounding land cover measured at multiple scales were more influential in structuring regional vegetation patterns in estuarine tidal wetlands in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Surrounding land cover was characterized at the 100, 250, and 1,000 m, and watershed buffer scales. Vegetation communities were characterized by high species richness, lack of monotypic zonation, and paucity of invasive species. The number of species per site ranged between 4 and 20 (mean?±?standard deviation?=?10.2?±?3.1). Sites supported a high richness (mean richness of native species 8.7?±?2.8) and abundance of native macrophytes (mean relative abundance 85 %?±?19 %). Vegetation assemblages were dominated by a mix of grasses, sedges, and herbs with Sarcocornia pacifica and Distichlis spicata being common at sites in the oceanic zone of the estuary and Carex lyngbyei and Agrostis stolonifera being common at the fresher sites throughout the study area. The vegetation community was most strongly correlated with salinity and land cover within close proximity to the study site and less so with land cover variables at the watershed scale. Total species richness and richness of native species were negatively correlated with the amount of wetland in the buffer at all scales, while abundance of invasive species was significantly correlated to within wetland factors, including salinity and dissolved phosphorus concentrations. Landscape factors related to anthropogenic disturbances were only important at the 100-m buffer scale, with anthropogenic disturbances further from the wetland not being influential in shaping the vegetation assemblage. Our research suggests that the traditional paradigms of tidal wetland vegetation structure and environmental determinants developed in east coast US tidal wetlands might not hold true for Pacific Northwest wetlands due to their unique chemical and physical factors, necessitating further detailed study of these systems.     

Reconstruction of past methane availability in an Arctic Alaska wetland indicates climate influenced methane release during the past ~12,000?years

Atmospheric contributions of methane from Arctic wetlands during the Holocene are dynamic and linked to climate oscillations. However, long-term records linking climate variability to methane availability in Arctic wetlands are lacking. We present a multi-proxy ~12,000?year paleoecological reconstruction of intermittent methane availability from a radiocarbon-dated sediment core (LQ-West) taken from a shallow tundra lake (Qalluuraq Lake) in Arctic Alaska. Specifically, stable carbon isotopic values of photosynthetic biomarkers and methane are utilized to estimate the proportional contribution of methane-derived carbon to lake-sediment-preserved benthic (chironomids) and pelagic (cladocerans) components over the last ~12,000?years. These results were compared to temperature, hydrologic, and habitat reconstructions from the same site using chironomid assemblage data, oxygen isotopes of chironomid head capsules, and radiocarbon ages of plant macrofossils. Cladoceran ephippia from ~4,000?cal?year BP sediments have ??¹³C values that range from ~?39 to ?31??, suggesting peak methane carbon assimilation at that time. These low ??¹³C values coincide with an apparent decrease in effective moisture and development of a wetland that included Sphagnum subsecundum. Incorporation of methane-derived carbon by chironomids and cladocerans decreased from ~2,500 to 1,500?cal?year BP, coinciding with a temperature decrease. Live-collected chironomids with a radiocarbon age of 1,640?cal?year BP, and fossil chironomids from 1,500?cal?year BP in the core illustrate that ??old?? carbon has also contributed to the development of the aquatic ecosystem since ~1,500?cal?year BP. The relatively low ??¹³C values of aquatic invertebrates (as low as ?40.5??) provide evidence of methane incorporation by lake invertebrates, and suggest intermittent climate-linked methane release from the lake throughout the Holocene.     

Seeing Conditions at Sutherland. Results of the 1992/93 seeing campaign

In order to decide whether the seeing conditions at SAAO/Sutherland justify the erection of a 3.5 m telescope and also to compare Sutherland with the Gamsberg/Namibia site, a seeing campaign covering 15 months has been carried out. For direct comparison with the results of the seeing campaign at Gamsberg twenty years before the same QUESTAR telescope was employed. The seeing is determined by the scattering of the star-trail exposed on a film in the focal plane of the telescope. The campaign commenced in February 1992. Up to May 1993, data for 204 nights, that is 47.3% of the total number of nights, were collected. Due to wind speeds above 30 km h^-1, 25 out of the 204 nights were not considered in the final reduction. The useful 179 nights are evenly distributed over the campaign period. The median seeing value for the whole period is = 0.52. There are differences during the year: the best season gives = 0.42, the worst = 0.67. Each night was divided into three intervals, although data for each of the three intervals were not always available. Generally, there is an improvement in the seeing during the course of a night. The results are compared to the seeing values of Gamsberg/Namibia and ESO/La Silla.     

An analytical investigation of a sequence of unusual springtime ozone episodes over metropolitan Taichung in 2007

This study investigated the potential factors contributing to a series of ozone (O₃) episodes in the Taichung metropolis, which occurred during the first half of May 2007. Surface data of the meteorological parameters and air pollutant concentrations, supported by Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration, and vertical data monitored via tethersonde sampling were analysed. The analyses showed that local anthropogenic activities and physical factors such as the sea–air interaction were not the main factors contributing to the O₃ events. Excluding these potential causes, the results suggest that, during the aforementioned period, the stronger Mainland High and Pacific Low may have been responsible for the long-range transport of large quantities of O₃ from Mainland China to Taiwan. Furthermore, O₃ photochemical activity also played an important role in the O₃ episodes. The faster consumption of NO lead to a more rapid increase in the O₃ concentration.