西北太平洋热带气旋频次的延伸期动力-统计预报方法和评估

介绍了西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)频次的延伸期预报方法,比较了新构建的动力-统计和统计预报模型的预测技巧,并探讨了预报误差来源及改进方向。动力-统计预报模型是基于动力模式预测的热带季节内振荡(ISO)信号及ISO-TC生成的同期统计关系来进行预报;统计预报模型则是基于TC生成的前兆ISO信号建模预报。预报评估结果显示,动力-统计混合预报模型的预报技巧高于统计预报模型,原因在于影响TC次季节变化的前兆信号并不稳定,且随着预报超前时间迅速消散,无法提供有效且稳定的可预报源;相反地,TC生成与同期的ISO背景场显著相关,动力模式对ISO(预报因子)有较好的预报能力,因此动力-统计相结合的预报方法为TC延伸期预报提供了有效途径。虽然目前动力-统计预报模型的预报技巧可达5～6周,但仍有进一步改进和提高的空间。通过对不同类型TC预报技巧检验和误差分析,研究认为年际和年代际背景场对ISO调控TC活动的影响不可忽略,且热带外ISO信号(如罗斯贝波破碎和西风急流强度等)对TC频次和轨迹也有显著影响,这些因子为TC延伸期预报提供了潜在可预报源。     

MODELING UNSTEADY TURBIDITY CURRENTS IN A STEEP NARROW RESERVOIR

1.IN~DUCTIONTurbiditycurrentisoneclassofflowsnameddensitycurrentorgravitycurrent(therHunterRouse(Yih(1980)),whichdePictstheintmsionofheaVyfluidintoalighterone.Usually,thedensitydifferencebetWeentWonuidisrelativelysmallandmixingacrosstheimerfaceoccurs.ThedrivingforceofdensitycurrentsisnotdensitydifferenceitselfbutthedifferenceinspeCmcweights.Turbiditycurrentisnamedwhenthedensitydifferenceisespeciallycausedbysuspendedfinesedimentparticles.Sincesediment-ladenflowcaninteraCtwiththelowerbou…     

Validation of ECMWF and NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis Data in Antarctica

The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) ECMWF (ERA-40) and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data were compared with Antarctic station observations, including surface-layer and upper-layer atmospheric observations, on intraseasonal and interannual timescales. At the interannual timescale, atmospheric pressure at different height levels in the ERA-40 data are in better agre...     

1000mb面及500mb面图解法数值预报的新尝试

本文提出了1000mb 面及500mb 面图解法数值预报的新方法.其特点是:(1)考虑了整个对流圈的铅直结构.用 Sawyer-Bushby 模式进行计算;但方法可推广到其他模式,例如Eliassen 模式.(2)500mb 面不当作无辐散层,无辐散层可置于其他适当的等压面上.方法的要点是利用 Bolin 定义的等效斜压层上某些平流来计算1000mb 及500mb 面的变高.讨论了一些实际试验结果.     

中国固体潮观测研究

本文讨论了在中国北京、武汉、上海、昆明、兰州、乌鲁木齐、广州、沈阳和青岛等九处的固体潮观测结果,并且与具有海洋和液核的地球模型进行了比较。文中特别讨论了仪器标定问题。结果表明了模拟固体潮效应的精度达到了0.6μgal。     

Spectral analysis for recovering the Earth's gravity potential by satellite gravity gradients

根据仪器功率谱密度和重力位系数阶方差的定义,本文建立了卫星重力梯度测量噪声功率谱密度与重力场模型的误差阶方差的直接对应关系,并基于此讨论了重力梯度测量精度、卫星轨道高度以及运行时间对地球重力场恢复精度的影响.相比于传统的基于最小二乘法评估卫星载荷噪声对地球重力场恢复精度的影响而言,本文提出的方法简单、直接,有助于快速设计和确定卫星重力测量计划的有关参数.     

Petrogenesis of opaque assemblages in the Ningqiang carbonaceous chondrite

Numerous round to oblate opaque assemblages (OAs) are found in chondrules and matrix of the Ningqiang carbonaceous chondrite. They are mainly composed of Ni-rich metal,magnetite,Fe,Ni-sulfides,with minor amounts of phosphate,phosphoran-olivine,pyroxene and trace amounts of nano-sized platinum-group metal alloys. The mineralogy of Ningqiang OAs is very similar to that of OAs previously reported in Ca,Al-rich inclusions of CV chondrites. Being a rare mineral phase in nature,phosphoran-olivine is thought to form by nonequilibrium reactions between P-bearing molten metal and olivine crystals during rapid cooling. Its occurrence in Ningqiang OAs indicates that the precursor of OAs was locally produced during chondrule formation,rather than directly condensed from the solar nebula as previously thought. The petrographic and mineralogical characteristics of Ningqiang OAs reveal that OAs formed by low temperature alterations of pre-existing homogeneous alloys within chondrules on a planetary body.     

Laboratory Observations on Internal Solitary Wave Evolution over A Submarine Ridge

Laboratory experiments were conducted in a wave flume on internal solitary wave （ISW） of depression and elevation types propagating over a submarine ridge in semicircular/triangular shape. Tests were arranged in series for combinations of submarine ridges of different heights and ISW of different amplitudes. The resuhant wave motions were found differing from thee of surface gravity waves. In deeper water, where an ISW of depression-type prevailed, the process of wave breaking displayed downward motion with continuous eddy on the front face of the ridge followed by upward motion towards the apex of the obstacle. Experimental results also suggested that blockage parameter ξ could be applied to classify various degrees of ISW-ridge interaction, i.e., ξ 〈 0.5 for weak interaction, 0.5 〈 ξ 〈 0.7 for moderate interaction, and 0.7 〈 ξ for wave breaking.     

The Structure of the Kuenlunkuan Granodiorite and its Relation to the Formation of the Ore-bearing Quartz Veins

正 The Kuenlunknan Granodiorite, whick occurs slightly to the west of the apex of the Kuangi are, is exposed at the southern end of the Tamingshan anticline. The mass is injeated into the Lower Devonian and Pre-Devonian rocks. This pluton is     

Check of Earth''''s free oscillations excited by Sumatra-Andaman Large Earthquake and discussions on the anisotropy of inner core

Sumatra-Andaman Large Earthquake on Dec. 26,2004 generated not only the Indian Ocean Tsunami but also the Earth's free oscillations (EFO). The signals of Earth's free oscillations were perfectly re-corded by the superconducting gravimeter C0-32 at Wuhan station in China. After the pre-treatment and spectral analysis on the observational data from Wuhan station,we obtained more than ninety EFO modes including 42 fundamental modes,2 radial modes and 49 harmonic modes. On the basis of the discussions on some observed harmonic modes and abnormal splitting phenomena,we considered that the real rigidity might be lower than the theoretical prediction of PREM model in the inner core and however the anisotropy of compressive wave was brightly higher than the present estimations in the inner core. This suggested that the anisotropy of the inner core could be much more complicated than our present understanding,and there might be some new geophysical phenomena in the formation process of the inner core.