Optical ages on loess derived from outwash surfaces constrain the advance of the Laurentide Ice Sheet out of the Lake Superior Basin,USA

We present textural and thickness data on loess from 125 upland sites in west-central Wisconsin, which confirm that most of this loess was derived from the sandy outwash surfaces of the Chippewa River and its tributaries, which drained the Chippewa Lobe of the Laurentide front during the Wisconsin glaciation (MIS 2). On bedrock uplands southeast of the widest outwash surfaces in the Chippewa River valley, this loess attains thicknesses > 5 m. OSL ages on this loess constrain the advance of the Laurentide ice from the Lake Superior basin and into west-central Wisconsin, at which time its meltwater started flowing down the Chippewa drainage. The oldest MAR OSL age, 23.8 ka, from basal loess on bedrock, agrees with the established, but otherwise weakly constrained, regional glacial chronology. Basal ages from four other sites range from 13.2 to 18.5 ka, pointing to the likelihood that these sites remained geomorphically unstable and did not accumulate loess until considerably later in the loess depositional interval. Other OSL ages from this loess, taken higher in the stratigraphic column but below the depth of pedoturbation, range to nearly 13 ka, suggesting that the Chippewa River valley may have remained a loess source for several millennia.     

Revisiting “An Exercise in Groundwater Model Calibration and Prediction” After 30 Years: Insights and New Directions

In 1988, an important publication moved model calibration and forecasting beyond case studies and theoretical analysis. It reported on a somewhat idyllic graduate student modeling exercise where many of the system properties were known; the primary forecasts of interest were heads in pumping wells after a river was modified. The model was calibrated using manual trial-and-error approaches where a model's forecast quality was not related to how well it was calibrated. Here, we investigate whether tools widely available today obviate the shortcomings identified 30 years ago. A reconstructed version of the 1988 true model was tested using increasing parameter estimation sophistication. The parameter estimation demonstrated the inverse problem was non-unique because only head data were available for calibration. When a flux observation was included, current parameter estimation approaches were able to overcome all calibration and forecast issues noted in 1988. The best forecasts were obtained from a highly parameterized model that used pilot points for hydraulic conductivity and was constrained with soft knowledge. Like the 1988 results, however, the best calibrated model did not produce the best forecasts due to parameter overfitting. Finally, a computationally frugal linear uncertainty analysis demonstrated that the single-zone model was oversimplified, with only half of the forecasts falling within the calculated uncertainty bounds. Uncertainties from the highly parameterized models had all six forecasts within the calculated uncertainty. The current results outperformed those of the 1988 effort, demonstrating the value of quantitative parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis methods.     

A New Late Middle Cambrian Paleomagnetic Pole for the Ellsworth Mountains, Antarctica

A paleomagnetic study of the late Middle to possibly early Late Cambrian Liberty Hills Formation in the Ellsworth Mountains, Antarctica, reveals a stable magnetization with positive fold and reversal tests. The paleopole is based on 16 sites from volcanic and sedimentary rocks and lies at lat 7.3 degrees N and long 326.3 degrees E (A95=6.0&j0;). The new paleomagnetic data support the view that the Ellsworth Mountains are part of a microplate-the Ellsworth-Whitmore Mountains crustal block-that rotated independently of the main Gondwana continental blocks during breakup. The Liberty Hills pole differs from both previous poles recovered from Cambrian rocks in the Ellsworth Mountains and from the available Gondwana reference pole data. Our pole indicates a more northerly prebreakup position for the Ellsworth Mountains than previously suggested, contradicting the overwhelming geologic evidence for a prebreakup position close to southern Africa. The reasons for this are uncertain, but we suggest that problems with the Gondwana apparent polar wander path may be important. More well constrained, early Paleozoic paleomagnetic data are required from the Ellsworth Mountains and the Gondwana continents if the data are to constrain further the Middle-Late Cambrian location of the Ellsworth-Whitmore Mountains block.     

Influences of the unsaturated,saturated, and riparian zones on the transport of nitrate near the Merced River,California, USA

Transport and transformation of nitrate was evaluated along a 1-km groundwater transect from an almond orchard to the Merced River, California, USA, within an irrigated agricultural setting. As indicated by measurements of pore-water nitrate and modeling using the root zone water quality model, about 63% of the applied nitrogen was transported through a 6.5-m unsaturated zone. Transport times from recharge locations to the edge of a riparian zone ranged from approximately 6 months to greater than 100 years. This allowed for partial denitrification in horizons having mildly reducing conditions, and essentially no denitrification in horizons with oxidizing conditions. Transport times across a 50–100-m-wide riparian zone of less than a year to over 6 years and more strongly reducing conditions resulted in greater rates of denitrification. Isotopic measurements and concentrations of excess N₂ in water were indicative of denitrification with the highest rates below the Merced River. Discharge of water and nitrate into the river was dependent on gradients driven by irrigation or river stage. The results suggest that the assimilative capacity for nitrate of the groundwater system, and particularly the riverbed, is limiting the nitrate load to the Merced River in the study area.     

Correction to: Evaluation of a synthetic rainfall model,P-CLIPER,for use in coastal flood modeling

Natural Hazards - Equation 3 was found to have a typographical error that produced negative rainfall rates.     

Scale effects of hydrostratigraphy and recharge zonation on base flow

Uncertainty regarding spatial variations of model parameters often results in the simplifying assumption that parameters are spatially uniform. However, spatial variability may be important in resource assessment and model calibration. In this paper, a methodology is presented for estimating a critical basin size, above which base flows appear to be relatively less sensitive to the spatial distribution of recharge and hydraulic conductivity, and below which base flows are relatively more sensitive to this spatial variability. Application of the method is illustrated for a watershed that exhibits distinct infiltration patterns and hydrostratigraphic layering. A ground water flow model (MODFLOW) and a parameter estimation code (UCODE) were used to evaluate the influence of recharge zonation and hydrostratigraphic layering on base flow distribution. Optimization after removing spatial recharge variability from the calibrated model altered base flow simulations up to 53% in watersheds smaller than 40 km(2). Merging six hydrostratigraphic units into one unit with average properties increased base flow residuals up to 83% in basins smaller than 50 km(2). Base flow residuals changed <5% in watersheds larger than 40 and 50 km(2) when recharge and hydrostratigraphy were simplified, respectively; thus, the critical basin size for the example area is approximately 40 to 50 km(2). Once identified for an area, a critical basin size could be used to guide the scale of future investigations. By ensuring that parameter discretization needed to capture base flow distribution is commensurate with the scope of the investigation, uncertainty caused by overextending uniform parameterization or by estimating extra parameter values is reduced.     

A method of accelerating transport simulation when groundwater pumping is simulated

In solving groundwater transport problems with numerical models, the computation time (CPU processing time) of transport simulation is approximately inversely proportional to the transport time-step size. Therefore, large time-step sizes are favorable for achieving short computation time. However, transport time-step size must be sufficiently small to avoid numerical instability if an explicit scheme is used (and to guarantee enough model accuracy if an implicit scheme is used). For a transport model involving groundwater pumping, a small transport time-step size is often required due to the high groundwater velocities near the pumping well. Small grid spacing often specified near the pumping well also limits the time-step size. This paper presents a method to increase transport time-step size in a transport model when groundwater pumping is simulated. The key to this approach is to numerically decrease the groundwater seepage velocities in grid cells near the pumping well by increasing the effective porosity so that the transport time-step size can be increased without violating stability constraints. Numerical tests reveal that by using the proposed method, the computation time of transport simulation can be reduced significantly, while the transport simulation results change very little.     

Automated watershed subdivision for simulations using multi-objective optimization

A qualitative trial-and-error approach is commonly used to define watershed subdivisions through varying a single topographic threshold value. A methodology has been developed to quantitatively determine spatially variable threshold values using topography and a user-defined landscape reference layer. Optimization and topographic parameterization algorithms were integrated to create solutions that minimize the number of sub-watersheds and maximize the agreement between the discretized watershed and the reference layer. The system was evaluated using different reference datasets such as soil type, land management, and landscape form. Comparison of simulated results indicated that the scenario using land management as the reference layer yielded results closer to the scenario subdivided using a constant topographic threshold but with approximately 10 times more sub-catchments and therefore indicating customization of the watershed subdivision to the user-defined reference layer. The proposed optimization technology could be used in adequately applying watershed modeling technology in developing conservation practice implementation plans.     

Stepwise use of GFLOW and MODFLOW to determine relative importance of shallow and deep receptors

A stepwise modeling approach is implemented in which a regional one-layer analytic element model is used to simulate the flow system and to furnish boundary conditions for an extracted local three-dimensional model. In this case study the stepwise approach is used to evaluate the fate of recharge in the Menomonee Valley adjacent to Lake Michigan. Two major receptors exist for recharge that flows through contaminated valley fill: the surface water estuary and a tunnel system constructed approximately 75 to 110 m below land surface to store storm runoff. The primary objective of the modeling is to delineate the contributing areas of recharge to each receptor. Of interest is the ability of the one-layer regional model to furnish flux boundary conditions to the local three-dimensional model despite the presence of vertical flow conditions at the boundaries of the local model. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the local model was insensitive to the vertical distribution of the flux. Each step of the modeling approach demonstrates that both receptors play an important role in capturing valley recharge. The pattern of capture of the one-layer model differed in shape from that delineated by the multi-layer local model in the presence of a flow system with pronounced vertical anisotropy and with sinks drawing water from different elevations.     

Simulating ground water-lake interactions: approaches and insights

Approaches for modeling lake-ground water interactions have evolved significantly from early simulations that used fixed lake stages specified as constant head to sophisticated LAK packages for MODFLOW. Although model input can be complex, the LAK package capabilities and output are superior to methods that rely on a fixed lake stage and compare well to other simple methods where lake stage can be calculated. Regardless of the approach, guidelines presented here for model grid size, location of three-dimensional flow, and extent of vertical capture can facilitate the construction of appropriately detailed models that simulate important lake-ground water interactions without adding unnecessary complexity. In addition to MODFLOW approaches, lake simulation has been formulated in terms of analytic elements. The analytic element lake package had acceptable agreement with a published LAKI problem, even though there were differences in the total lake conductance and number of layers used in the two models. The grid size used in the original LAKI problem, however, violated a grid size guideline presented in this paper. Grid sensitivity analyses demonstrated that an appreciable discrepancy in the distribution of stream and lake flux was related to the large grid size used in the original LAKI problem. This artifact is expected regardless of MODFLOW LAK package used. When the grid size was reduced, a finite-difference formulation approached the analytic element results. These insights and guidelines can help ensure that the proper lake simulation tool is being selected and applied.