Climate change,the monsoon,and rice yield in India

Recent research indicates that monsoon rainfall became less frequent but more intense in India during the latter half of the Twentieth Century, thus increasing the risk of drought and flood damage to the country’s wet-season (kharif) rice crop. Our statistical analysis of state-level Indian data confirms that drought and extreme rainfall negatively affected rice yield (harvest per hectare) in predominantly rainfed areas during 1966–2002, with drought having a much greater impact than extreme rainfall. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we find that yield would have been 1.7% higher on average if monsoon characteristics, especially drought frequency, had not changed since 1960. Yield would have received an additional boost of nearly 4% if two other meteorological changes (warmer nights and lower rainfall at the end of the growing season) had not occurred. In combination, these changes would have increased cumulative harvest during 1966–2002 by an amount equivalent to about a fifth of the increase caused by improvements in farming technology. Climate change has evidently already negatively affected India’s hundreds of millions of rice producers and consumers.     

Impact of the modulated annual cycle and intraseasonal oscillation on daily-to-interannual rainfall variability across monsoonal India

Variability of the Indian summer monsoon is decomposed into an interannually modulated annual cycle (MAC) and a northward-propagating, intraseasonal (30–60-day) oscillation (ISO). To achieve this decomposition, we apply multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (M-SSA) simultaneously to unfiltered daily fields of observed outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) and to reanalyzed 925-hPa winds over the Indian region, from 1975 to 2008. The MAC is essentially given by the year-to-year changes in the annual and semi-annual components; it displays a slow northward migration of OLR anomalies coupled with an alternation between the northeast winter and southwest summer monsoons. The impact of these oscillatory modes on rainfall is then analyzed using a 1-degree gridded daily data set, focusing on Monsoonal India (north of 17°N and west of 90°E) during the months of June to September. Daily rainfall variability is partitioned into three states using a Hidden Markov Model. Two of these states are shown to agree well with previous classifications of “active” and “break” phases of the monsoon, while the third state exhibits a dipolar east–west pattern with abundant rainfall east of about 77°E and low rainfall to the west. Occurrence of the three rainfall states is found to be an asymmetric function of both the MAC and ISO components. On average, monsoon active phases are favored by large positive anomalies of MAC, and breaks by negative ones. ISO impact is decisive when the MAC is near neutral values during the onset and withdrawal phases of the monsoon. Active monsoon spells are found to require a synergy between the MAC and ISO, while the east–west rainfall dipole is less sensitive to interactions between the two. The driest years, defined from spatially averaged June–September rainfall anomalies, are found to be mostly a result of breaks occurring during the onset and withdrawal stages of the monsoon, e.g., mid-June to mid-July, and during September. These breaks are in turn associated with anomalously late MAC onset or early MAC withdrawal, often together with a large-amplitude, negative ISO event. The occurrence of breaks during the core of the monsoon—from late July to late August—is restricted to a few years when MAC was exceptionally weak, such as 1987 or 2002. Wet years are shown to be mostly associated with more frequent active spells and a stronger MAC than usual, especially at the end of the monsoon season. Taken together, our results suggest that monthly and seasonal precipitation?predictability is higher in the early and late stages of the summer monsoon season.     

Deccan basalts in and around Koyna — Warna region,Maharashtra: Some reflections

Study on geochemistry of groundwater occurring at different depths is rarely attempted due to inherent difficulties in sample isolation and lack of significant species variations. Three-dimensional (spatial, temporal and depth-wise) evaluation of water chemistry variations would give holistic picture of aquatic chemistry. In order to fill the knowledge gap the vertical hydrogeochemistry of Penna-Chitravati inter-stream sub-basin is studied.Water samples are segregated into different groups based on water levels of source wells. The group samples pertaining to granite terrain (A to C) does not show much variation for tested parameters as most of the samples fall within 20m water level. In shale aquifers groundwater is progressively less ionized as depth to levels increases (Group D to G). Reduction of EC and Na-Cl along with falling water levels indicates deeper aquifers are free from contamination. Gradual decrease in HCO ₃ ^- with depth substantiates that deeper aquifers are getting less fresh water due to lack of inter connectivity in shale formations. Sodium in groundwater of both the granite and shale aquifers is contributed by weathering of silicate rocks as the Na⁺/Cl^- molar ratio is >1 in many samples. Majority of the samples in both the geological terrains have Ca²⁺/Mg²⁺ ratio between 1 to < 2 indicating dolomite dissolution is responsible for Ca²⁺-Mg²⁺ contribution. The chemistry of tested water indicate aquifer matrix is responsible for chemical make-up of pore water which was obliterated due to extraneous sources like anthropogenic contamination as Na⁺, Cl^-, NO ₃ ^- and SO ₄ ^2- /HCO ₃ ^- is high in many samples belonging to shallow aquifers. Thermodynamic action in deep aquifers could be responsible for dissimilar water chemistry in aquifers belonging to same geological domain.     

Detecting inter-aquifer leakage in areas with limited data using hydraulics and multiple environmental tracers,including <Superscript>4</Superscript>He, <Superscript>36</Superscript>Cl/Cl, <Superscript>14</Superscript>C and <Superscript>87</Superscript>Sr/<Superscript>86</Superscript>Sr

The investigation of regionally extensive groundwater systems in remote areas is hindered by a shortage of data due to a sparse observation network, which limits our understanding of the hydrogeological processes in arid regions. The study used a multidisciplinary approach to determine hydraulic connectivity between the Great Artesian Basin (GAB) and the underlying Arckaringa Basin in the desert region of Central Australia. In order to manage the impacts of groundwater abstraction from the Arckaringa Basin, it is vital to understand its connectivity with the GAB (upper aquifer), as the latter supports local pastoral stations and groundwater-dependent springs with unique endemic flora and fauna. The study is based on the collation of available geological information, a detailed analysis of hydraulic data, and data on environmental tracers. Enhanced inter-aquifer leakage in the centre of the study area was identified, as well as recharge to the GAB from ephemeral rivers and waterholes. Throughout the rest of the study area, inter-aquifer leakage is likely controlled by diffuse inter-aquifer leakage, but the coarse spatial resolution means that the presence of additional enhanced inter-aquifer leakage sites cannot be excluded. This study makes the case that a multi-tracer approach along with groundwater hydraulics and geology provides a tool-set to investigate enhanced inter-aquifer leakage even in a groundwater basin with a paucity of data. A particular problem encountered in this study was the ambiguous interpretation of different age tracers, which is attributed to diffusive transport across flow paths caused by low recharge rates.     

New 40Ar/39Ar constraints for the “Grande Nappe”: The largest rhyolitic eruption from the Mont-Dore Massif (French Massif Central)

Since the 1960s, an early explosive activity in the Mont-Dore Massif is associated with a major pyroclastic rhyolitic eruption (5–7 km³) known as the “Grande Nappe” (GN). This event, linked to the formation of a 6-km-diameter cryptic caldera named “Haute Dordogne”, was before our investigation dated by ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar at 3.07 ± 0.04 Ma. Our new single-crystal laser fusion ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates obtained on two outcrops of the GN (Rochefort-Montagne and Ludières) questioned several hypotheses made concerning this “landmark” event of the Mont-Dore Massif history. We demonstrate that: (1) the GN rhyolitic eruption has occurred much later than previously estimated (i.e. 2.77 ± 0.02–0.07 Ma full external uncertainties); (2) the correlation made between the Vendeix rhyolitic complexes (intra-caldera position) dated back to 2.74 ± 0.04 Ma and the GN is proposed; (3) xenocryst contamination could be very high (i.e. 70% for the Rochefort-Montagne GN outcrop) and explains the noticeable older age obtained previously; (4) a link between the GN eruption and the formation of a caldera is questionable; the hypothesis of a northward-oriented blast channeled eastward toward the paleo-Allier River is thus proposed.     

Diffraction of plane SH waves by a semi-circular cavity in half-space

This paper presents a closed-form solution for diffraction of plane SH waves by a semi-circular cavity in half-space by using wave function expansion method. Accuracy of the solution is checked by the displacement residual and stress residual along the boundaries. Numerical results show that there are notable differences for response amplitudes between a semi-circular cavity and a whole-circular cavity in a half-space.     

An attempt to separate anthropic and natural fire signals in an archaeological context-The case of the Mousterian site Grotta Reali (Rocchetta a Volturno Molise, Central Italy)

This paper presents an image analysis method for automated quantification of charcoal total area, focusing on the charcoal fractions less than 160 μm observed on 14 pollen slides from Grotta Reali samples. Four fire signals were recorded with 4 high values in the microcharcoal concentration curve. On the basis of modern microcharcoal study, mean length/width ratio of the microcharcoal particles was applied in an archeological context as an indicator of vegetal type (wood, grass or leaves). Therefore, the 4 fire signals were separated into two types: high concentration with high length/width ratio, and high concentration with low length/width ratio. Two fire signals might be interpreted as anthropic fire based on hearth or combustion areas, as inferred from archeological remains.     

Stability of ice on Mars and the water vapor diurnal cycle: Experimental study of the sublimation of ice through a fine-grained basaltic regolith

In order to advance our understanding of the long-term stability of subsurface ice, the diurnal martian water cycle, and implications for liquid water, we determined diffusion coefficients and adsorption kinetics for the water vapor produced by the sublimation of ice buried beneath various layers of fine-grained (<63, 63-125, and 125-250 μm) basaltic powder under simulated martian conditions. Sublimation rates at shallower depths, <10 mm, were determined to be affected by mass transfer through the atmosphere in addition to the basalt layer. For greater depths, the measured diffusion coefficients for water vapor moving through basalt grains were 1.56±0.53×¹⁰⁻⁴, 2.05±0.82×¹⁰⁻⁴, and for the <63, 63-125, and 125-250 μm basaltic layers, respectively. Through the Brunauer, Emmett and Teller (BET) isotherm, which assumes multiple molecular layers of adsorbed water, we determined the adsorption constants of 52.6±8.3 at 270 K for <63 μm, 39.0±6.4 at 267 K for 63-125 μm, and 54.3±9.3 at 266 K for 125-250 μm, resulting in surface areas of 2.6±0.1×¹⁰⁴, 1.7±0.3×¹⁰⁴, , respectively. These results suggest that while diffusion is too rapid to explain the purported diurnal cycle in water content of the atmosphere, adsorption is efficient and rapid, and does provide an effective mechanism to explain such a cycle. The present diffusion data suggest that very thin, <50 pr μm, shallow, 10 mm, ice deposits would last for >10 h at ∼224 K, just above the freezing point of saturated CaCl₂. Temperatures can remain above ∼224 K over most of the planet, which means that water, even as saturated brine, will sublimate before the freezing point is reached and liquid could be formed. On the other hand, 1 m ice layers below 1 m of fine-grained basaltic regolith at 235 K and 10 Pa of atmospheric water could last 600 to 1300 years. At deeper depths and lower temperatures, ice could last since the last major obliquity change 400,000 years ago.     

Cyclic magma storages and transfers at Piton de La Fournaise volcano (La Réunion hotspot) inferred from deformation and geochemical data

Piton de La Fournaise is in a period of intense volcanic activity since 1998. To constrain the magma dynamics responsible for this activity, we combined GPS ground deformation monitoring interpreted through numerical modelling and geochemistry. Two cycles of continuous volcano inflation are evidenced for the May 2004–December 2005 period, with a rest from March to October 2005. These inflations are consistent with two cycles of compatible major element enrichment in the emitted lavas. Numerical models indicate that the pressurization of a single magma reservoir may be responsible for the observed pre-eruptive inflations of the volcano. The reservoir, located at 2300 m depth, has a radius of  500 m. At the beginning of each cycle, dykes propagate from the roof of the reservoir and yield eruptions of differentiated basalt near the summit. At the end of the cycle, dykes propagate from the eastern sidewall of the reservoir and yield distal eruptions of primitive magmas away from the summit. The volumes of magma emitted during the primitive eruptions seem too large to explain the surface deformations and therefore suggest some refill of the reservoir by deeper magmas. Our results may be used to predict the location and lava volume of future eruptions at Piton de La Fournaise volcano, depending on the timing of these eruptions within a cycle of volcanic activity.