Tropical cyclone contribution to extreme rainfall over southwest Pacific Island nations

Southwest Pacific nations are among some of the worst impacted and most vulnerable globally in terms of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced flooding and accompanying risks. This study objectively quantifies the fractional contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall (hereafter, TC contributions) in the context of climate variability and change. We show that TC contributions to extreme rainfall are substantially enhanced during active phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and by El Niño conditions (particularly over the eastern southwest Pacific region); this enhancement is primarily attributed to increased TC activity during these event periods. There are also indications of increasing intensities of TC-induced extreme rainfall events over the past few decades. A key part of this work involves development of sophisticated Bayesian regression models for individual island nations in order to better understand the synergistic relationships between TC-induced extreme rainfall and combinations of various climatic drivers that modulate the relationship. Such models are found to be very useful for not only assessing probabilities of TC- and non-TC induced extreme rainfall events but also evaluating probabilities of extreme rainfall for cases with different underlying climatic conditions. For example, TC-induced extreme rainfall probability over Samoa can vary from ~ 95 to ~ 75% during a La Niña period, if it coincides with an active or inactive phase of the MJO, and can be reduced to ~ 30% during a combination of El Niño period and inactive phase of the MJO. Several other such cases have been assessed for different island nations, providing information that have potentially important implications for planning and preparing for TC risks in vulnerable Pacific Island nations.

     

Spatial Metrics to Analyse the Impact of Regional Factors on Pattern of Urbanisation in Gurgaon,India

In recent years, there has been lot of emphasis on the study of urban land use/ land cover changes to discover the growth pattern due to rapid urbanisation. This study presents spatial metrics and gradient analysis approach for quantifying and capturing changes in urban landscape using LISS III imagery of 1999, 2001 and 2004 of Gurgaon, India. A combination of spatial metrics i.e. percentage of landscape, mean patch size, number of patches, landscape shape index and largest patch index, available in Fragstats ver. 3.3, have been used to quantify the patterns of urban growth in different directions in terms of size, shape and complexity of development. The local built-up areas were quantified by the “moving window” technique. A gradient analysis has been carried out through sampling from a reference point to 8 km in 16 directions with a window size of 500 mts. Results of this study demonstrate the potential of spatial metrics and gradient modelling to quantify the impact of regional factors on the growth pattern of Gurgaon city.     

Accuracy improvement of ASTER stereo satellite generated DEM using texture filter

The grid DEM(digital elevation model) generation can be from any of a number of sources:for instance,analogue to digital conversion of contour maps followed by application of the TIN model,or direct elevation point modelling via digital photogrammetry applied to airborne images or satellite images.Currently,apart from the deployment of point-clouds from LiDAR data acquisition,the generally favoured approach refers to applications of digital photogrammetry.One of the most important steps in such deployment i...     

Effect of the Mahanadi River on the Development of Storm Surge Along the Orissa Coast of India: A Numerical Study

River-ocean coupled models are described for the evaluation of the interaction between river discharge and surge development along the Orissa coast of India. The models are used to study the effect of fresh water discharge from the Mahanadi River on the surge response along the Orissa coast due to the October 1999 super cyclone which led to severe flooding of the coastal and delta regions of Orissa. The so-called 1999 Paradip cyclone was one of the most severe cyclones; causing extensive damage to property and loss of lives. The present study emphasizes the impact of the Mahanadi River on overall surge development along the Orissa coast. Therefore, we have developed a location specific fine resolution model for the Orissa coast and coupled it with a one–dimensional river model. The numerical experiments are carried out, both with and without inclusion of fresh water discharge from the river. The bathymetry for the model has been taken from the naval hydrographic charts extending from the south of Orissa to the south of west Bengal. A simple drying scheme has also been included in the model in order to avoid the exposure of land near the coast due to strong negative sea-surface elevations. The simulations with river-ocean coupled models show that the discharge of fresh water carried by the river may modify the surge height in the Bay, especially in the western Bay of Bengal where one of the largest river systems of the east coast of India, the Mahanadi River, joins with the Bay of Bengal. Another dynamic effect of this inlet is the potentially deep inland penetration of the surge originating in the Bay. The model results are in good agreement with the available observations/estimates.     

Analysis of buried pipelines subjected to reverse fault motion

Presently available simplified analytical methods and semi-empirical methods for the analysis of buried pipelines subjected to fault motion are suitable only for the strike-slip and the normal-slip type fault motions, and cannot be used for the reverse fault crossing case. A simple finite element model, which uses beam elements for the pipeline and discrete nonlinear springs for the soil, has been proposed to analyse buried pipeline subjected to reverse fault motion. The material nonlinearities associated with pipe-material and soil, and geometric nonlinearity associated with large deformations were incorporated in the analysis. Complex reverse fault motion was simulated using suitable constraints between pipe-nodes and ground ends of the soil spring. Results of the parametric study suggest that the pipeline's capacity to accommodate reverse fault offset can be increased significantly by choosing a near-parallel orientation in plan with respect to the fault line. Further improvement in the response of the pipeline is possible by adopting loose backfill, smooth and hard surface coating, and shallow burial depth in the fault crossing region. For normal or near normal orientations, pipeline is expected to fail due to beam buckling at very small fault offsets.     

GIS‐based modelling of soil erosion processes using the modified‐MMF (MMMF) model in a large watershed having vast agro‐climatological differences

The present study demonstrates a spatially distributed application of a field‐scale annual soil loss model, the modified‐MMF (MMMF), to a large watershed using hydrological routing techniques, remote sensing data and geospatial technologies. In this study, the MMMF model is implemented after incorporating the corrections suggested in recent literature along with appropriate modifications of the model to suit the agro‐climatological conditions prevailing in most parts of India. Sensitivity analysis carried out through an Average Linear Sensitivity approach indicates that the model outputs are highly sensitive to soil moisture (MS), bulk density (BD), effective hydraulic depth (EHD), ground cover (GC) and settling velocity for clay (VS_c). During calibration and validation, the performance evaluation statistics are mostly in the range of very good to satisfactory for both runoff and soil loss at the watershed outlet. Even spatial validation of the results of intermediate processes in the water phase and the sediment phase, although qualitative, seems to be reasonable and rational. Furthermore, the soil erosion severity analysis for different land‐uses existing in the watershed indicates that about 90% of the watershed area, especially that occupied by agricultural lands, is vulnerable to the long‐term effects of soil erosion. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Bay–River Coupled Model for Storm Surge Prediction Along the Andhra Coast of India

The paper describes a two-dimensional bay–river coupled numerical model for storm surges along the Andhra coast of India. The effect of the Krishna and Godavari rivers on the surge development is analysed. A comparative study of the surge generated by a tropical cyclone with and without the inclusion of rivers is done in detail. Three cyclones that struck the Andhra coast in November 1977, May 1990 and November 1996 were used for the simulation studies. It is found that the idealized model without a river overestimates the sea-level elevation as compared to a more realistic bay–river coupled model. The temporal variation of surge values at the mouth of the rivers is also studied for all three cyclone cases. It is found that the effect of the presence of rivers depends on the strength of the cyclone, its point of landfall and the location of the rivers with respect to the landfall point.     

Early In-orbit Performance of Scanning Sky Monitor Onboard AstroSat

We report the in-orbit performance of Scanning Sky Monitor (SSM) onboard AstroSat. The SSM operates in the energy range 2.5 to 10 keV and scans the sky to detect and locate transient X-ray sources. This information of any interesting phenomenon in the X-ray sky as observed by SSM is provided to the astronomical community for follow-up observations. Following the launch of AstroSat on 28th September, 2015, SSM was commissioned on October 12th, 2015. The first power ON of the instrument was with the standard X-ray source, Crab in the field-of-view. The first orbit data revealed the basic expected performance of one of the detectors of SSM, SSM1. Following this in the subsequent orbits, the other detectors were also powered ON to find them perform in good health. Quick checks of the data from the first few orbits revealed that the instrument performed with the expected angular resolution of 12’ \(\times \) 2.5\(^\circ \) and effective area in the energy range of interest. This paper discusses the instrument aspects along with few on-board results immediately after power ON.