A new spatial prediction model and its application to wind records

Summary Contour maps of any meteorological variable cannot give radius or area of influences around the measurement station by considering the records at surrounding sites. The main purpose of this paper is to propose a trigonometric point cumulative semivariogram (TPCSV) concept for deciding on a spatial dependence function and then its use for regional prediction. The TPCSV provides a unique opportunity for the establishment of a regional objective prediction method whereby the radius of influence helps to predict wind velocity at any site by using the weighted averages. The spatial correlations and weightings are obtained through the TPCSV provided that the distance between two sites is known. If the slope of TPCSV is greater than 80° after some distance, then beyond this distance the regional correlation is considered as negligible. The implementation of the proposed methodology is presented for 68 wind velocity measurement stations in Turkey. The proposed method yields the least prediction error compared with other objective methodologies. It is seen that areas of influence at Central Anatolia are generally bigger than coastal areas of Turkey.     

Sediment disturbance off the Tagus Estuary, Western Portugal: chronic contamination, sewage outfall operation and runoff events

Sediment disturbance patterns in the coastal area off the Tagus Estuary (Portugal) have been assessed using a set of combined techniques. The potential sources of disturbance in the area include chronic contamination of the fine sediments originating from the estuary, a local input from a long-sea sewage outfall and occasional high runoff episodes following torrential rain. The Sediment Quality Triad approach, combining environmental chemistry (namely organic contaminants), macrofaunal benthic communities and laboratory sediment toxicity assays, was performed on sediment samples from 20 sites. The samples were collected before the outfall commenced operation and four years after commissioning, in order to evaluate the relative magnitudes of the three potential sources of disturbance. The sediment contamination created by the estuary was identified as the most important cause of reduced sediment quality, as disturbance in all three components of the Sediment Quality Triad were only found in a site located near the estuary.     

The middle Pleistocene transition: characteristics, mechanisms, and implications for long-term changes in atmospheric pCO2

The emergence of low-frequency, high-amplitude, quasi-periodic (100-kyr) glacial variability during the middle Pleistocene in the absence of any significant change in orbital forcing indicates a fundamental change internal to the climate system. This middle Pleistocene transition (MPT) began 1250 ka and was complete by 700 ka. Its onset was accompanied by decreases in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic and tropical-ocean upwelling regions and by an increase in African and Asian aridity and monsoonal intensity. During the MPT, long-term average ice volume gradually increased by 50 m sea-level equivalent, whereas low-frequency ice-volume variability experienced a 100-kyr lull centered on 1000 ka followed by its reappearance 900 ka, although as a broad band of power rather than a narrow, persistent 100-kyr cycle. Additional changes at 900 ka indicate this to be an important time during the MPT, beginning with an 80-kyr event of extreme SST cooling followed by the partial recovery and subsequent stabilization of long-term North Atlantic and tropical ocean SSTs, increasing Southern Ocean SST variability primarily associated with warmer interglacials, the loss of permanent subpolar sea-ice cover, and the emergence of low-frequency variability in Pacific SSTs and global deep-ocean circulation. Since 900 ka, ice sheets have been the only component of the climate system to exhibit consistent low-frequency variability. With the exception of a near-universal organization of low-frequency power associated with marine isotope stages 11 and 12, all other components show an inconsistent distribution of power in frequency-time space, suggesting a highly nonlinear system response to orbital and ice-sheet forcing.Most hypotheses for the origin of the MPT invoke a response to a long-term cooling, possibly induced by decreasing atmospheric pCO₂. None of these hypotheses, however, accounts for the geological constraint that the earliest Northern Hemisphere ice sheets covered a similar or larger area than those that followed the MPT. Given that the MPT was associated with an increase in ice volume, this constraint requires that post-MPT ice sheets were substantially thicker than pre-MPT ice sheets, indicating a change in subglacial conditions that influence ice dynamics. We review evidence in support of the hypothesis that such an increase in ice thickness occurred as crystalline Precambrian Shield bedrock became exposed by glacial erosion of a thick mantle of regolith. This exposure of a high-friction substrate caused thicker ice sheets, with an attendant change in their response to the orbital forcing. Marine carbon isotope data indicate a rapid transfer of organic carbon to inorganic carbon in the ocean system during the MPT. If this carbon came from terrigenous sources, an increase in atmospheric pCO₂ would be likely, which is inconsistent with evidence for widespread cooling, Apparently rapid carbon transfer from terrestrial sources is difficult to reconcile with gradual erosion of regolith. A more likely source of organic carbon and nutrients (which would mitigate pCO₂ rise) is from shelf and upper slope marine sediments, which were fully exposed for the first time in millions of years in response to thickening ice sheets and falling sealevels during the MPT. Modeling indicates that regolith erosion and resulting exposure of crystalline bedrock would cause an increase in long-term silicate weathering rates, in good agreement with marine Sr and Os isotopic records. We use a carbon cycle model to show that a post-MPT increase in silicate weathering rates would lower atmospheric pCO₂ by 7–12 ppm, suggesting that the attendant cooling may have been an important feedback in causing the MPT.     

Participatory modeling in dairy farm systems: a method for building consensual environmental sustainability using seasonal climate forecasts

Dairy farmers face increasing pressure to decrease environmental impact while remaining economically viable. Adaptation of farm management practices in response to seasonal climate forecasts may be one means of achieving these objectives. This paper describes the interactive and iterative process by which farmers, researchers, extension agents, regulatory agencies, and other stakeholders collaborated to create, calibrate, and validate the Dynamic North Florida Dairy Farm model (DyNoFlo), a whole-farm decision support system to decrease nitrogen leaching while maintaining profitability under variable climate conditions. Participatory modeling may enhance the creation of adoptable and adaptable user-friendly models that include environmental, economic and biophysical components. By providing farmers, policy makers, and other stakeholders with a more holistic view of current practices, common ground among them was more easily identified and collaboration was fostered. Farmer values included willingness to be good environmental stewards when they are profitable. The participatory research and development process enhanced understanding of and potential adaptation to seasonal climate variability conditioned to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases in light of increasing environmental regulations and economic challenges. Adoption of the collaboratively-developed DyNoFlo is expected to be higher than usual because stakeholders feel greater ownership of the final product.     

Determining a tilt in Titan’s north-south albedo asymmetry from Cassini images

Analysis of Titan’s hemispheric brightness asymmetry from mapped Cassini images reveals an axis of symmetry that is tilted with respect to the rotational axis of the solid body. Twenty images taken from 2004 through 2007 show a mean axial offset of 3.8 ± 0.9° relative to the solid body’s pole, directed 79 ± 24° to the west of the sub-solar longitude. These values are consistent with recent measurements of an implied atmospheric spin axis determined from isothermal mapping by [Achterberg, R.K., Conrath, B.J., Gierasch, P.J., Flasar, F.M., Nixon, C.A., 2008. Icarus 197, 549-555].     

Ar-Ar laser dating of tektites from the Cheb Basin (Czech Republic): Evidence for coevality with moldavites and influence of the dating standard on the age of the Ries impact

Moldavites (Central European tektites) are genetically related to the impact event that produced the ∼24-km diameter Ries crater in Germany, representing one of the youngest large impact structures on Earth. Although several geochronological studies have been completed, there is still no agreement among ⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar ages on both moldavites and glasses from Ries suevites. Even recently published data yielded within-sample mean ages with a nominal spread of more than 0.6 Ma (14.24-14.88 Ma). This age spread, which significantly exceeds current internal errors, must be in part ascribed to geological and/or analytical causes.This study reports the results of a detailed geochronological investigation of moldavites from the Cheb area (Czech Republic), which have never been dated before, and, for comparison, of two samples from type localities, one in southern Bohemia and the other in western Moravia. We used ⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar laser step-heating and total fusion techniques in conjunction with microscale petrographic and chemical characterization. In addition, with the purpose of ascertaining the influence of the dating standards on the age of the Ries impact and making data from this study and literature consistent with the now widely used Fish Canyon sanidine (FCs) standard, we performed a direct calibration of multi-grain splits of the Fish Canyon biotite (FCT-3) with FCs. The intercalibration factors (), determined for eight stack positions in one of the three performed irradiations, were indistinguishable within errors and gave an arithmetic mean and a standard deviation of 1.0086 ± 0.0031 (±2σ), in agreement with previous works suggesting that biotite from the Fish Canyon Tuff is somewhat older (∼0.8%) than the coexisting sanidine.Laser total fusion analysis of milligram to sub-milligram splits of five tektite samples from the Cheb area yielded mostly concordant intrasample ⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar ages, and within-sample weighted mean ages of 14.66 ± 0.08-14.75 ± 0.12 Ma (±2σ internal errors, ages relative to FCs) that overlap within errors. These ages match those obtained for samples from western Moravia (14.66 ± 0.08 Ma) and southern Bohemia (14.68 ± 0.11 Ma), supporting the genetic link between Cheb Basin tektites and moldavites, and, consequently, between Cheb Basin tektites and the Ries impact. In contrast to samples from the Cheb area and Moravia, ⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar ages from total fusion experiments on the Bohemian specimen ranged widely from ∼14.6 to ∼17.0 Ma. Older apparent ages, however, were systematically obtained from fragments characterized by visible surface alteration. Laser step-heating experiments, although displaying slightly disturbed age profiles, were in line with total fusion analyses and yielded well-defined plateau ages of 14.64 ± 0.11-14.71 ± 0.11 Ma (±2σ internal errors, ages relative to FCs).A thorough comparison of our and previous ⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar ages on both moldavites and Ries suevite glasses, recalculated relative to the ⁴⁰Ar^∗/⁴⁰K ratio recently determined for FCs using intercalibration factors available in or derivable from the literature, reveals some inconsistencies which may be ascribed to either geological or analytical causes. Based on our data, decay constants in current use in geochronology, and ages calculated relative to FCs, we infer that the age of moldavites is 14.68 ± 0.11 Ma (±2σ, neglecting uncertainties in the ⁴⁰K decay constants).     

Mesoproterozoic Lakhanda Lagerstätte, Siberia: Paleoecology and taphonomy of the microbiota

The preservation of the organic-walled microbiota of the Lakhanda Lagerstätte in the Kumakha mudstone succession of the late Mesoproterozoic Lakhanda Group (Uchur-Maya region, southeast Siberia) is a result of unusually favorable paleoecologic, taphonomic, and diagenetic conditions. Well known for its marked taxonomic diversity and exquisite preservation, the biota inhabited a warm, shallow, epicontinental basin rich in nutrients into which were dispersed clay minerals, from weathering of continental crust, and minor amounts of volcanic detritus. The fossils were preserved by compression in fine-grained smectite–illite–kaolinite mudstones deposited in a sulfur-deficient disoxic and anoxic environment. Subsequently, the long-term (1 Ga) tectonic stability of the southeast margin of the Siberian platform has provided an exceptional environment for the preservation of the microfossil assemblage without significant diagenetic alteration. Conclusions drawn here from studies of the paleoecology, taphonomy, and diagenesis of the Lakhanda Lagerstätte may provide a globally useful model in the search for additional evidence of the Precambrian rise to dominance of eukaryotes in the Earth's biosphere.     

Robotic optical telescopes global network MASTER II. Equipment, structure, algorithms

Presented paper describes the basic principles and features of the implementation of a robotic network of optical telescopes MASTER, designed to study the prompt (simultaneous with gamma radiation) optical emission of gamma-ray bursts and to perform the sky survey to detect unknown objects and transient phenomena. With joint efforts of Sternberg astronomical institute, High altitude astronomical station of the Pulkovo observatory, Ural state university, Irkutsk state university, Blagoveshchensk pedagogical university, the robotic telescopes MASTER?II near Kislovodsk, Yekaterinburg, Irkutsk and Blagoveshchensk were installed and tested. The network spread over the longitudes is greater than 6?h. A further expansion of the network is considered.     

Statistical Analysis of Storm-time TEC Variation during Ascending and Descending Solar Periods of 24th Solar Cycle

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - This paper presents a statistical analysis of global ionospheric variation during quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions from December 2008 to June 2019. The study...