Spatio-temporal regression kriging for modelling urban NO2 concentrations

ABSTRACT

Recently developed urban air quality sensor networks are used to monitor air pollutant concentrations at a fine spatial and temporal resolution. The measurements are however limited to point support. To obtain areal coverage in space and time, interpolation is required. A spatio-temporal regression kriging approach was applied to predict nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) concentrations at unobserved space-time locations in the city of Eindhoven, the Netherlands. Prediction maps were created at 25 m spatial resolution and hourly temporal resolution. In regression kriging, the trend is separately modelled from autocorrelation in the residuals. The trend part of the model, consisting of a set of spatial and temporal covariates, was able to explain 49.2% of the spatio-temporal variability in NO₂ concentrations in Eindhoven in November 2016. Spatio-temporal autocorrelation in the residuals was modelled by fitting a sum-metric spatio-temporal variogram model, adding smoothness to the prediction maps. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed using leave-one-out cross-validation, resulting in a Root Mean Square Error of 9.91 μg m^?3, a Mean Error of ?0.03 μg m^?3 and a Mean Absolute Error of 7.29 μg m^?3. The method allows for easy prediction and visualization of air pollutant concentrations and can be extended to a near real-time procedure.     

Trends of persistent organic pollutants in the suspended matter of the River Rhine

Recently amended European (EU) water policies call for an adequate monitoring of the chemical status of sediments and suspended matter (SM) in rivers. In this study, we focus on long‐term time series of particle‐bound hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and selected polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB‐138 and PCB‐153) that were monitored biweekly to monthly at eight stations in the River Rhine catchment. Our aims are (1) to detect trends in the concentration series HCB, PCB‐138 and PCB‐153, (2) to estimate the uncertainty of loads caused by SM collection techniques and load calculation procedures and (3) to detect trends in the subsequently calculated annual load series. HCB concentration in the SM for the period 1995–2008 significantly (p < 0·01) decreased at six of the eight monitoring stations. Decreasing PCB‐138 and PCB‐153 concentrations are significant at six of the eight and seven of the eight monitoring stations, respectively. A two‐way analysis of variance (ANOVA) that tested the effect of two collection techniques and four load calculation procedures on annual loads indicates homogeneity of the methods at four of the five monitoring stations. At Weil, only the loads of HCB, PCB‐138 and PCB‐153 are significantly affected by the collection technique. The trend analysis of an extended series (1985–2007) of annual HCB loads at Koblenz showed a significant decrease from about 110 kg year^?1 to about 15–23 kg year^?1; however, in the shorter period (1995–2007) only at two of the eight monitoring stations decreasing trends of annual contaminant load could be detected. We conclude that any of the tested load calculation procedures can be applied, as loads do no differ systematically. Although a high uncertainty in load estimation exists (e.g. maximum percentage error of E = [18·1, 122·5]% for HCB), the monitoring programme at the Rhine is adequate for analysing the long‐term chemical status of SM. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparative Study Of The Dust Polarimetric Properties In Split And Normal Comets

Our polarimetric database contains six comets, C/1975 V1 (West), 16P/Brooks 2,C/1988 A1 (Liller), D/1996 Q1 (Tabur), C/1999 S4 (LINEAR), and C/2001 A2(LINEAR), which can be related to the group of split comets. Comets West, S4(LINEAR) and A2 (LINEAR) were observed during splitting. We compare thepolarimetric measurements of the dust particles in these comets, sometimes togetherwith available photometric and colorimetric data, with those in normal comets. Weconclude that there is no significant evidence for differences of polarization betweentidally split comets (e.g., Brooks 2), dissipating comets (e.g., Tabur), non-tidally splitcomets (e.g., West) and normal comets. The total disintegration of Comet S4 (LINEAR), however, did produce significant changes in the observed properties of dust.     

A heat flow and physical properties package for the surface of Mercury

European Space Agencies fifth cornerstone mission BepiColombo includes a ‘Surface Element’ to land a scientific payload on the surface of Mercury. The current strawman payload includes a heat flow and physical properties package (HP³), focussing on key thermal and mechanical properties of the near-surface material (down to a depth of 2–5 m) and the measurement of heat flow from Mercury's interior, an important constraining parameter for models of the planet's interior and evolution. We present here an overview of the HP³ experiment package and its possible accommodation in a self-inserting ‘mole’ device. A mole is considered to be the most appropriate deployment method for HP³, at least in the currently-assumed case of an airbag-assisted soft landing architecture for the Mercury Surface Element.     

Hamiltonian Dynamics of a Gyrostat in the N-Body Problem: Relative Equilibria

We consider the non-canonical Hamiltonian dynamics of a gyrostat in Newtonian interaction with n spherical rigid bodies. Using the symmetries of the system we carry out two reductions. Then, working in the reduced problem, we obtain the equations of motion, a Casimir function of the system and the equations that determine the relative equilibria. Global conditions for existence of relative equilibria are given. Besides, we give the variational characterization of these equilibria and three invariant manifolds of the problem; being calculated the equations of motion in these manifolds, which are described by means of a canonical Hamiltonian system. We give some Eulerian and Lagrangian equilibria for the four body problem with a gyrostat. Finally, certain classical problems of Celestial Mechanics are generalized.     

Jurassic guyots on the Southern Iberian Continental Margin: a model of isolated carbonate platforms on volcanic submarine edifices

During the middle Jurassic on the Southern Iberian Continental Margin (at the westernmost end of the northern Tethys) isolated carbonate platforms developed over volcanic edifices, forming guyots. The volcanic edifices were composed of K-rich pillow-lavas and pyroclastic rocks with a radiometric age ≈ 170 Myr. Such phenomena have not been described until now in this continental margin nor in other passive continental margins of Alpine domains. The presence of a shallowing-upward megasequence (Bajocian–Bathonian) with hummocky cross- stratification strata below oolitic shoals, shows that very shallow isolated carbonate platforms developed above the volcanic edifices, with similar facies to those recognized in other guyots, but with a different age and geodynamic context.     

Analysis of development and depth of backward erosion pipes in the presence of a coarse sand barrier

Backward erosion piping (BEP) is a failure mechanism that can affect the safety of water-retaining structures. It can occur when a local anomaly on the downstream side of an embankment causes a concentration of seepage flow at that location. Shallow pipes may then form, progressing in the upstream direction and leading to a collapse of the water-retaining structure. A novel and economically appealing measure against BEP is the coarse sand barrier (CSB), which is now being developed in a multiscale experimental programme in the Netherlands. The method involves placing a trench filled with coarse sand below the blanket layer on the downstream side of the embankment. The CSB prevents the upstream progression of the pipe and significantly enhances resistance to BEP. This paper presents medium-scale laboratory tests involving a range of sands, barrier depths and relative densities. The piping process and the observations of pipe progression in the presence of a CSB are presented, followed by a conceptual model. The presence of a CSB changed the erosion pattern. It resulted in pipe formation perpendicular to the flow direction over the entire width of the barrier before the barrier was damaged. The findings also demonstrate the effect of material properties on pipe initiation, progression and pipe depth. Measurements of the pipe depth are presented and analysed, revealing the significance of pipe depth for understanding the piping process. This analysis shows considerable erosion in the downstream background sand and demonstrates that erosion profiles and measured pipe depths are significantly larger than in BEP tests without a CSB.

     

Embedded Behavior: Human Activities and the Construction of the Mesolithic Shellmound of Cabeço da Amoreira,Muge, Portugal

Shellmound formation processes are greatly influenced by human inputs associated with an intensive exploitation of marine and estuarine resources. The complex stratigraphy of shellmounds has been difficult to decipher and few studies have focused on the microstratigraphic record of midden formation, especially in European Mesolithic contexts. Cabeço da Amoreira is a long‐known Mesolithic shellmound located on the shores of the Muge River, a tributary of the Tagus River in central Portugal. The abundance of shellfish refuse favors an intricate and laterally variable stratigraphic succession of layers and lenses, which results in an extensive artificial mound. Here, we use micromorphological and microfacies analysis to investigate aspects pertaining to site formation, and the nature of individual anthropogenic activities at the site. This methodology allowed for a distinction between primary activities (e.g., discrete shell tossing events, trampled occupational surfaces, and activity areas), and secondary position of the sediments in intentionally raked‐up and dumped deposits. Nondepositional hiatuses and discrete geogenic sedimentation are associated with periods of abandonment. The complex superposition of events seen at Cabeço da Amoreira underlines the role of micromorphology for the identification of behavioral signatures and its relevance in deciphering shellmound adaptations.