Height-season structure of the available potential energy and kinetic energy in the lower and middle atmosphere

The distributions of kinetic energy (KE) and available potential energy (APE) in the lower and middle atmosphere of the Northern and Southern hemispheres over the period 1992–2003 are investigated. Annual mean values of the amplitude and phase of annual and semiannual oscillations in the zonal and eddy forms of KE and APE are calculated in the height range 0–55 km (1000–0.316 hPa) for the 21st layer. A clearly pronounced annual cycle of the zonal and eddy components of KE and APE with maxima in the winter season are observed in the troposphere of both hemispheres. In the lower stratosphere, the annual-cycle maximum is shifted toward the summer season because of the meridional gradient of the zonal mean temperature. In the stratosphere of both hemispheres, along with annual oscillations, semiannual oscillations are present in all forms of energy. The intensity of these oscillations for the zonal KE and APE at the upper-stratosphere heights is comparable to the intensity of annual oscillations. A local structure of the energy regime of the upper mesosphere-lower thermosphere is investigated against the background of the global energy regime from the data of meteor sounding in Kazan. It is shown that, for both the global and regional regimes, specific features of the phase profiles of energy characteristics can be explained by the presence of barriers during the propagation of wave disturbances along the vertical.     

交通枢纽的空间演进与发展机理

长时间序列的交通枢纽空间分布格局的演进规律,一直是国内外交通地理学有待解决的问题。考察交通枢纽的长期演变规律,有助于把握交通枢纽的发展机理,为空间优化提供科学支撑。对秦汉时期以来中国交通枢纽分布格局的发展过程与空间特征进行系统解析,认为存在秦汉至南北朝、隋唐、宋朝至辽金时期、元明、清朝、民国至今等6个阶段。基于中国不同历史阶段交通枢纽的发展轨迹,总结了交通枢纽的基本形成条件和空间演变的一般过程,并对交通枢纽的生命周期进行了分析,在此基础上,深入研究了交通枢纽的基本发展模式,系统总结了中国交通枢纽空间布局的基本形态。相关研究既是对交通枢纽研究的理论完善,也是中国交通枢纽布局规划的理论基础。     

Hydrological processes in the Amur Liman

Data collected in 2005–2009 are analyzed to study the main features of hydrological processes in the main part of the Amur estuary—the Amur Liman. Data on the morphological structure of the liman and the surge and tidal phenomena are analyzed. The variability of salinity field in different phases of river hydrological cycle is studied. Wind currents are shown to have an appreciable effect on the water exchange and river runoff distribution between the seas of Japan and Okhotsk in the ice-free season. In summer, the Amur runoff enters the Sea of Okhotsk. The main features of the structure of liman water in summer are identified. The northern part of the estuary is freshened by river runoff and partially mixed; it has a two-layer structure. A salt wedge forms at the northern exit from the liman into the Sea of Okhotsk, and strong water stratification is observed there.     

A probabilistic approach to exposure risk assessment

The introduction of hazardous substances into the environment has long been recognized as being a cause of several diseases in humans, wildlife, and plants. The damaging character of suspected contaminants is usually assessed via a “reject/retain” design with no explicit link between levels of exposure and intensities of the potential adverse health effects even though this connection may be important for the development of public health regulations that limit exposure to hazardous substances. Here, we propose a probabilistic approach to exposure risk assessment as a way around this typical flaw. We develop a Bayesian model using proximity to the source of an alleged contaminant as a surrogate for exposure. Subsequently, we carry out an experimental study based on simulated data to illustrate the model implementation with real world data. We also discuss a possible way of extending the model to accommodate potential heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of the focal disease.     

First results of investigation into the relation between magnetic properties of bottom sediments in the Northern Caspian and variations in the Caspian Sea level in the Late Neo-Pleistocene

The first data of investigation into the relation between changes in magnetic properties of the Northern Caspian sediments and variations in the Caspian Sea level in the Late Neo-Pleistocene are presented. It is shown that there is a certain correlation between magnetic characteristics of sediments and variations in the Caspian Sea level that cause changes in the lithological and faunistic composition of sediments.     

Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama?

Over the past two decades, skeptics of the reality and significance of anthropogenic climate change have frequently accused climate scientists of “alarmism”: of over-interpreting or overreacting to evidence of human impacts on the climate system. However, the available evidence suggests that scientists have in fact been conservative in their projections of the impacts of climate change. In particular, we discuss recent studies showing that at least some of the key attributes of global warming from increased atmospheric greenhouse gases have been under-predicted, particularly in IPCC assessments of the physical science, by Working Group I. We also note the less frequent manifestation of over-prediction of key characteristics of climate in such assessments. We suggest, therefore, that scientists are biased not toward alarmism but rather the reverse: toward cautious estimates, where we define caution as erring on the side of less rather than more alarming predictions. We call this tendency “erring on the side of least drama (ESLD).” We explore some cases of ESLD at work, including predictions of Arctic ozone depletion and the possible disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet, and suggest some possible causes of this directional bias, including adherence to the scientific norms of restraint, objectivity, skepticism, rationality, dispassion, and moderation. We conclude with suggestions for further work to identify and explore ESLD.     

Comparative Analysis of Models of Thermoerosion-Induced Channel Deformations in Rivers of Permafrost Zone

Water Resources - Studies of erosion processes in river channels of the permafrost zone are reviewed. Mathematical models of thermal erosion and the deformations it induces are discussed in...