Hotelling Revisited: Oil Prices and Endogenous Technological Progress

This article examines the Hotelling model of optimal nonrenewable resource extraction in light of empirical evidence that petroleum and minerals prices have been trendless despite resource scarcity. In particular, we examine how endogenous technology-induced shifts in the cost function would have evolved over time if they were to maintain a constant market price for nonrenewable resources. We calibrate our model using empirical data on world oil, and find that, depending on the estimate of the initial stock of reserve, oil reserves will likely be depleted some time between the years 2040 and 2075.     

Magellanic penguin mortality in 2008 along the SW Atlantic coast

Magellanic penguins migrate from Patagonia reaching northern Argentina, Uruguay, and southern Brazil on their winter migration, in parallel with the seasonal pulse of anchovy spawning. In 2008, Magellanic penguins went further north than usual. Many died and a few swam nearly to the Equator. Twelve groups surveyed 5000 km of coastline encountering 3371 penguins along the coast. Most penguins arrived in northern Brazil (68.4%) without petroleum (2933, 87%). Almost all penguins without petroleum were juveniles (2915, 99%) and 55% were alive when found. Penguins were dehydrated, anemic, hypothermic, and emaciated. Of the penguins with petroleum, 13% arrived in the southern half of Brazil, showing that petroleum pollution remains a problem along the SW Atlantic coast. The mortality occurred in the winter of 2008 when sea surface temperature were unusually cold perhaps reducing the prey for penguins.     

Survival and movements of Magellanic penguins rehabilitated from oil fouling along the coast of South America, 2000-2010

Oil pollution is a significant conservation concern. We examined data from six institutions along the coast of South America: Emergency Relief Team of the International Fund for Animal Welfare, Fundación Mundo Marino, Centro de Recupera??o de Animais Marinhos, Natura Patagonia, Associa??o R3 Animal, and Mar del Plata Aquarium and data from resightings in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Falkland/Malvinas Islands. From 2000 to 2010, 2183 oiled Magellanic penguins were rehabilitated as part of the routine activities of these institutions or during emergency responses to eight oil spills in which they were involved; all rehabilitated penguins were flipper banded and released. Since their release, 41 penguins were resighted until 31 December 2011. The results demonstrate that, when combined with other prevention strategies, the rehabilitation of Magellanic penguins is a strategy that contributes to the mitigation of adverse effects of oil spills and chronic pollution to the species.     

Tilt of Sunspot Bipoles in Solar Cycles 15 to 24

We use recently digitized sunspot drawings from Mount Wilson Observatory to investigate the latitudinal dependence of tilt angles of active regions and its change with solar cycle. The drawings cover the period from 1917 to present and contain information as regards polarity and strength of magnetic field in sunspots. We identified clusters of sunspots of same polarity, and used these clusters to form “bipole pairs”. The orientation of these bipole pairs was used to measure their tilts. We find that the latitudinal profile of tilts does not monotonically increase with latitude as most previous studies assumed, but instead, it shows a clear maximum at about 25?–?30 degree latitudes. Functional dependence of tilt (\(\gamma\)) on latitude (\(\varphi\)) was found to be \(\gamma= (0.20\pm0.08) \sin(2.80 \varphi) + (-0.00\pm0.06)\). We also find that latitudinal dependence of tilts varies from one solar cycle to another, but larger tilts do not seem to result in stronger solar cycles. Finally, we find the presence of a systematic offset in tilt of active regions (non-zero tilts at the equator), with odd cycles exhibiting negative offset and even cycles showing the positive offset.     

Particulate suspended matter concentrations in the Bahía Blanca Estuary,Argentina: Implication for the development of phytoplankton blooms

The inner zone of the Bahía Blanca Estuary is shallow, nutrient-rich and turbid. Tidal energy and water turbulence strongly affect the water column resulting in a well-mixed structure and high concentrations of suspended sediment. The phytoplankton community is mostly dominated by diatoms and the annual pattern has been characterized by a recurrent winter-early spring bloom. Here, we investigated to what extent the temporal variations of suspended particulate matter (SPM) regulate the phytoplankton blooms in the head of the estuary by light-limitation. Sampling was done on a fortnightly basis (weekly during the blooming season) at a fixed station in the inner zone of the estuary from January 2007 to February 2008. SPM concentrations and light extinction coefficients (k) in the water column were significantly correlated and showed relatively lower values during the phytoplankton maximal biomass levels. During winter, SPM and k reached values of 23.6 mg l⁻¹ and 0.17 m⁻¹ which were significantly lower than the annual means of 77.6 mg l⁻¹ and 2.94 m⁻¹, respectively. The particulate organic matter (POM) concentration was significantly correlated with the calculated phytoplankton biomass although the contribution of the latter to the total POM was rather low. Both, POM and biomass, had maximal values during winter (21.8 mg l⁻¹ and 393.5 μg C l⁻¹) and mid summer (24.3 mg l⁻¹ and 407.0 μg C l⁻¹), with cell densities up to 8 × 10⁶ cells l⁻¹ and chlorophyll a up to 24.6 μg l⁻¹. Our results suggest that the decrease of SPM concentrations in the water column with a concomitant increase in the penetration of solar radiation seems to be one of the main causes for the development of the phytoplankton winter bloom in the Bahía Blanca Estuary.     

Influence of orographic precipitation on the topographic and erosional evolution of mountain ranges

The influence of climate on mountain denudation has been the topic of an intense debate for two decades. This debate partly arises from the covariation of rainfall and topography during the growth of mountain ranges, both of which influence denudation. However, the denudational response of this co-evolution is poorly understood. Here, we use a landscape evolution model where the rainfall evolves according to a prescribed rainfall–elevation relationship. This relationship is a bell curve defined by a rainfall base level, a rainfall maximum and a width around the rainfall peak elevation. This is a first-order model that fits a large range of orographic rainfall data at the ca. 1-km spatial scale. We carried out simulations of an uplifting block with an alluvial apron, starting from an initially horizontal surface, and testing different rainfall–elevation relationships. We find that the denudation history is different from that with constant rainfall models. The results essentially depend on the ratio between the final steady-state summit elevation H_ss and the prescribed rainfall peak elevation H_p. This ratio is hard to predict because it depends on the transient coupling of rainfall and elevation. We identified three types of results according to H_ss/H_p. If H_ss/H_p > 4 (Type I), the denudation rates peak when the summits reach values close to H_p. If H_ss/H_p > 1.5 and < 4 (Type II), the denudation is strongly accelerated when the elevation of the summits approaches H_p, and then the denudation increases slowly towards the uplift rate. If H_ss/H_p < 1.5 (Type III), the denudation evolution is similar to situations with constant and homogeneous rainfall. In the Type I and II experiments, the mountain top is subjected to aridification once the summits have passed through H_p. To adapt to this reduced rainfall, the slopes increase. This can lead to a paradoxical situation where the mountain relief increases faster, whereas the denudation increases more slowly. The development of orographic precipitation may thus favour the stability of the mean denudation rate in a rising mountain. Despite the model limitations, including a constant rainfall–elevation relationship, our study suggests that the “classical” exponential increase in the denudation rate predicted by constant rainfall models is not the common case. Instead, the common case involves pulses and acceleration of the denudation even in the absence of uplift or global climate variations.     

Carboniferous and Permian granites of the northern Tasman orogenic belt, Queensland, Australia: insights into petrogenesis and crustal evolution from an in situ zircon study

In situ U–Pb dating and Lu–Hf systematics of zircon in granites of the Hodgkinson Province in the northern Tasman orogenic belt, Queensland, Australia, reveal input of isotopically more evolved crustal magmas and larger ranges in ¹⁷⁶Hf/¹⁷⁷Hf in the Carboniferous I-type granites (0.28219–0.28269; weighted average ~0.28245) than in the Permian S-type granites (0.28249–0.28280; weighted average ~0.28262) and Permian I-type granites (0.28253–0.28274; weighted average ~0.28260). The wide range in the Hf-isotope compositions of zircons in the Carboniferous and Permian granites can be explained by remelting of a heterogeneous Mesoproterozoic crustal source, whereas a narrow range reflects the subsequent dissolution of inherited grains/cores and magma homogenisation before zircon crystallisation. Alternatively, mixing between the most radiogenic and unradiogenic magmas can produce the isotopic variation seen in other Carboniferous granites. Remelting of Neoproterozoic average crust or mafic younger crust can produce the more radiogenic Hf-isotope compositions of zircons in the Permian S-type granites. An overlap between the Hf-isotope signatures of the Carboniferous I-type granites in the southwestern Hodgkinson Province and the northeastern Australian craton (0.28211–0.28254) and evidence for major magmatic events at 1,585–1,545 and 345–300 Ma imply that the southwestern province is underlain by cratonic crust, which wedges out towards the northeast. The more radiogenic Hf-isotope signature of the Permian granites and a lack of evidence for these major magmatic events in the southeastern and central Hodgkinson Province imply that these parts are characterised by different crustal sources and crustal evolution histories.     

Multiple flaring activity in the supergiant fast X-ray transient IGR J08408−4503 observed with Swift

IGR  J08408−4503  is a supergiant fast X–ray transient discovered in 2006 with a confirmed association with a O8.5Ib(f) supergiant star, HD 74194. We report on the analysis of two outbursts caught by Swift /Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) on 2006 October 4 and 2008 July 5, and followed up at softer energies with Swift /X-ray Telescope (XRT). The 2008 XRT light curve shows a multiple-peaked structure with an initial bright flare that reached a flux of  ∼10⁻⁹ erg cm⁻² s⁻¹  (2–10 keV), followed by two equally bright flares within 75 ks. The spectral characteristics of the flares differ dramatically, with most of the difference, as derived via time-resolved spectroscopy, being due to absorbing column variations. We observe a gradual decrease in the N _H, derived with a fit using absorbed power-law model, as time passes. We interpret these N _H variations as due to an ionization effect produced by the first flare, resulting in a significant decrease in the measured column density towards the source. The durations of the flares as well as the times of the outbursts suggest that the orbital period is ∼35 d, if the flaring activity is interpreted within the framework of the Sidoli et al. model with the outbursts triggered by the neutron star passage inside an equatorial wind inclined with respect to the orbital plane.     

Temporal and genetic relationships between the Kidston gold-bearing Breccia Pipe and the Lochaber Ring Dyke Complex, North Queensland, Australia: insights from in situ U–Pb and Hf-isotope analysis of zircon

An existing model for the temporal and genetic relationships between the Kidston gold-bearing Breccia Pipe and the nearby Lochaber Ring Dyke Complex has been evaluated using in situ U–Pb and Hf-isotope analyses of zircon grains. The Oak River Granodiorite, the host rock to the Kidston Breccia Pipe, has 1,551?±?6 Ma old zircon cores overgrown by 417.7?±?2.2 Ma rims. The Black Cap Diorite and Lochaber Granite within the Lochaber Ring Dyke Complex have crystallisation ages of 350.7?±?1.3 and 337.9?±?2.6 Ma respectively. The gold-rich Median Dyke within the Kidston Breccia Pipe has a crystallisation age of 335.7?±?4.2 Ma, and thus is temporally related to the Lochaber Granite. However, zircon grains from the Median Dyke have less radiogenic Hf-isotope compositions (? _Hf from ?7.8 to ?15.8) than those from the Black Cap Diorite ?_Hf?=?0.4 to ?7.2) and the Lochaber Granite (? _Hf?=??1.0 to ?7.5), but within the range defined by zircons from the Oak River Granodiorite ? _Hf?=??8.0 to ?29.2). The Hf-isotope data thus rule out the proposed fractional crystallisation relationship between the Kidston gold-bearing rocks and the Lochaber Ring Dyke Complex. The Kidston Median Dyke may have been produced by mixing between Lochaber Granite magmas and magmas derived by remelting of the Oak River Granodiorite, which was itself derived from Proterozoic crust. There is no evidence for a juvenile component in the Lochaber Ring Dyke Complex or the Median Dyke. The gold enrichment in the Kidston rocks thus may reflect the multi-stage reworking of the Proterozoic crust, which ultimately produced the Carboniferous felsic magmas.