Global sensitivity analysis through polynomial chaos expansion of a basin-scale geochemical compaction model

We present a model-driven uncertainty quantification methodology based on sparse grid sampling techniques in the context of a generalized polynomial chaos expansion (GPCE) approximation of a basin-scale geochemical evolution scenario. The approach is illustrated through a one-dimensional example involving the process of quartz cementation in sandstones and the resulting effects on the dynamics of the vertical distribution of porosity, pressure, and temperature. The proposed theoretical framework and computational tools allow performing an efficient and accurate global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of the system states (i.e., porosity, temperature, pressure, and fluxes) in the presence of uncertain key mechanical and geochemical model parameters as well as boundary conditions. GSA is grounded on the use of the variance-based Sobol indices. These allow discriminating the relative weights of uncertain quantities on the global model variance and can be computed through the GPCE of the model response. Evaluation of the GPCE of the model response is performed through the implementation of a sparse grid approximation technique in the space of the selected uncertain quantities. GPCE is then be employed as a surrogate model of the system states to quantify uncertainty propagation through the model in terms of the probability distribution (and its statistical moments) of target system states.     

Yield and catch changes in a Mediterranean small tuna trap: a warming change effect?

Since the 17th century, the Tonnarella of Camogli, a small tuna trap, has been used to catch pelagic fish along the western coast of the Portofino Promontory (Ligurian Sea, Northwestern Mediterranean). The availability of long‐term datasets on fish yields (1950–1974 and 1996–2011), with information related to the seawater temperatures and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), has allowed us to study the qualitative and quantitative changes in fish yields in the last decade and the possible relationships with the seasonal anomalies of temperature that have occurred in the Ligurian Sea. In 1950–1974, yields remained relatively constant over time (average of 35.6 ± 8.7 t·year^?1). From 1996 through 2011, yields were high (42.9 ± 15.9 t·year^?1) but inconsistent with strong annual variability in catches. The primary catches are Seriola dumerili, Auxis rochei, Trachurus spp. and Sarda sarda. Changes in species composition have occurred as well: S. dumerili, Sardinella sp. and Belone belone have appeared recently. Moreover, a significant decrease in the boreal scombroid (Scomber scombrus) and an increase of warm‐temperate carangids and other typically Southern Mediterranean species such as Coryphaena hippurus and Sphyraena viridensis, appear to be linked to the warming of the surface water layer, particularly evident in the Ligurian Sea, for the last 10 years. The analysis of this kind of trend may be a powerful tool for assessing structural changes of the pelagic fish community in the Ligurian Sea (Northwestern Mediterranean).     

Estimation of net ecosystem metabolism of seagrass meadows in the coastal waters of the East Sea and Black Sea using the noninvasive eddy covariance technique

We measured the community-scale metabolism of seagrass meadows in Bulgaria (Byala [BY]) and Korea (Hoopo Bay [HP]) to understand their ecosystem function in coastal waters. A noninvasive in situ eddy covariance technique was applied to estimate net O₂ flux in the seagrass meadows. From the high-quality and high-resolution time series O₂ data acquired over > 24 h, the O₂ flux driven by turbulence was extracted at 15-min intervals. The spectrum analysis of vertical flow velocity and O₂ concentration clearly showed well-developed turbulence characteristics in the inertial subrange region. The hourly averaged net O₂ fluxes per day ranged from -474 to 326 mmol O₂ m^-2 d^-1 (-19 ± 41 mmol O₂ m^-2 d^-1) at BY and from -74 to 482 mmol O₂ m^-2 d^-1 (31 ± 17 mmol O₂ m^-2 d^-1) at HP. The net O₂ production rapidly responded to photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) and showed a good relationship between production and irradiance (P-I curve). The hysteresis pattern of P-I relationships during daytime also suggested increasing heterotrophic respiration in the afternoon. With the flow velocity between 3.30 and 6.70 cm s^-1, the community metabolism during daytime and nighttime was significantly increased by 20 times and 5 times, respectively. The local hydrodynamic characteristics may be vital to determining the efficiency of community photosynthesis. The net ecosystem metabolism at BY was estimated to be -17 mmol O₂ m^-2 d^-1, which was assessed as heterotrophy. However, that at HP was 36 mmol O₂ m^-2 d^-1, which suggested an autotrophic state.     

Topological changes of the photospheric magnetic field inside active regions: A prelude to flares?

The detection of magnetic field variations as a signature of flaring activity is one of the main goals in solar physics. Past efforts gave apparently no unambiguous observations of systematic changes. In the present study, we discuss recent results from observations that scaling laws of turbulent current helicity inside a given flaring active region change in response to large flares in that active region. Such changes can be related to the evolution of current structures by a simple geometrical argument, which has been tested using high Reynolds number direct numerical simulations of the MHD equations. Interpretation of the observed data within this picture indicates that the change in scaling behavior of the current helicity seems to be associated with a topological reorganization of the footpoint of the magnetic field loops, namely with the dissipation of small scales structures in turbulent media.     

Age and palynological characteristic of the Dongning Formation (Eastern Heilongjiang,China)

The taxonomic composition of the palynological assemblage of the Dongning Formation is supplemented. The palynological assemblage corresponds to those from the Lipovtsy Formation (Aptian) in the Razdolnaya Basin of Primorye (Russia) and the Muling Formation (Aptian) in the Jixi Basin of eastern Heilongjiang (China). It is found that the age of the Dongning Formation is Aptian. The palynological assemblage is characterized by dominance of spores of Gleicheniaceae; they are accompanied by spores of Cyatheaceae. The most important feature of the palynological assemblage of the Dongning Formation is the presence of angiosperm pollen (Tricolpites sp., T. micromunus, T. vulgaris, Retitricolpites georgiensis, R. vulgaris, Clavatipollenites hughesii, Quercites sparsus, Fraxiniopollenites variabilis).     

Drivers of interannual and intra‐annual variability of dissolved organic carbon concentration in the River Thames between 1884 and 2013

The world's longest record of river water quality (River Thames—130 years) provides a unique opportunity to understand fluvial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations dynamics. Understanding riverine DOC variability through long‐term studies is crucial to capture patterns and drivers influencing sources of DOC at scales relevant for decision making. The Thames basin (United Kingdom) has undergone massive land‐use change, as well as increased urbanisation and population during the period considered. We aimed to investigate the drivers of intra‐annual to interannual DOC variability, assess the variability due to natural and anthropogenic factors, and understand the causes for the increased DOC variability over the period. Two approaches were used to achieve these aims. The first method was singular spectrum analysis, which was used to reconstruct the major oscillatory modes of DOC, hydroclimatic variables, and atmospheric circulation patterns and to visualise the interaction between these variables. The second approach used was generalised additive modelling, which was used to investigate other non‐natural drivers of DOC variability. Our study shows that DOC variability increased by 80% over the data period, with the greatest increase occurring from the beginning of World War II onwards. The primary driver of the increase in DOC variability was the increase in the average value of fluvial DOC over the period of record, which was itself linked to the increase in basin population and diffuse DOC sources to the river due to land‐use and land‐management changes. Seasonal DOC variability was linked to streamflow and temperature. Our study allows to identify drivers of fluvial intra‐annual and interannual DOC variability and therefore empowers actions to reduce high DOC concentrations.     

Beyond REDD+ readiness: land-use governance to reduce deforestation in Peru

Peru contains the fourth largest area of tropical forest in the world, yet faces a worsening net deforestation rate. In 2008, to address this threat, the national government announced its ambition to reduce deforestation to zero by 2021. Via literature review and key informant interviews, this study assess two years of REDD+ readiness preparations according to six readiness functions. A mixed pattern of outcomes emerge. Although significant advances were made by various local-level initiatives, national-level efforts continue to struggle. Three crucial challenges persist: (1) greater involvement and coordination of ministries and government agencies associated with REDD+ planning, (2) better understanding of deforestation agents and drivers, and (3) integration of REDD+ policies into national and regional plans, which includes clarification of safeguard procedures and design of incentive mechanisms. Integrated land use planning is presented as a platform to foster dialogue that helps to reconcile divergent stakeholder perspectives, coordinate changes to land use, and resolve overlapping land rights.

Policy relevance

This article presents the outcomes of a multi-dimensional assessment of the REDD+ readiness process in Peru. The six key functions in the analytical framework provide the opportunity to evaluate the process in an integrated and systematic manner and highlights the persistence of complex, transversal governance challenges across diverse economic sectors and government agencies. Research findings also reveal a need for policy change and continued investment to ensure success of the national process in Peru. Strong leadership is needed to generate consensus in cross-sectoral negotiations and to establish coordinated land governance and monitoring mechanisms.     

Environmental impacts of household appliances in Europe and scenarios for their impact reduction

Assessing the environmental impact due to consumption of goods and services is a pivotal step towards achieving the sustainable development goal related to responsible production and consumption (i.e. SDG 12). Household appliances plays a crucial role and should be assessed in a systemic manner, namely considering all life cycle stages, technological efficiency, and affluence aspects. The present study assess the impact of such household appliances used in Europe, and tests scenarios of potential impact reduction at various scales. Life cycle assessment is applied to 14 different household appliances (ranging from dishwashers to television devices) selected to build a set of representative products, based on their economic value and diffusion in households in Europe. Related impacts are calculated with the Environmental Footprint method for calculating a Consumer Footprint “appliances” for the baseline year 2010. A number of scenarios encompassing eco-solutions on a technical level, changes in consumption pattern, behavioral changes, as well as the combination of all these aspects are run to estimate the Consumer Footprint related to household appliances for the year 2030, compared against this baseline scenario. The baseline Consumer Footprint is confirming the importance of the use phase in leading the impacts in almost all impact categories. Testing different scenarios concludes that there is a reduction of the impact for most of the categories (with up to 67% for the ozone depletion potential, and still around 35% for the global warming potential), while two of the here examined impact categories (i.e. land-use and mineral resource depletion) show an overall potential that is even negative – i.e. the results of all scenarios are higher than the ones of the 2010 baseline scenario. The increase in purchase and use of such appliances may offset energy efficiency benefits in some of the examined categories. Hence, the assessment of sustainability of appliances consumption should always include several scales, from the efficiency of the products (micro scale), to the improvement of the energy mix (meso scale), up to accounting for socio-economic drivers and patterns of consumption affecting the overall appliances stock (macro scale).     

Over 10 years of variation in Mediterranean reef benthic communities

During the last several decades, the Mediterranean littoral shallow water benthic communities have suffered significant changes in their structure and taxa composition. Despite numerous studies conducted to characterize these changes at various levels, it has always been very difficult to disentangle the effects of natural factors from anthropic ones. The main purpose of this work was to evaluate possible changes, over a 10‐year scale, in diversity and abundance of the most representative species of the benthic communities considered to be primarily and potentially affected by natural stressors in a highly protected area. Sets of macro‐photographs were taken in 2002–2003 of three sites inside a small bay called Ca’ dell'Oro, which is the “no entry—no take” zone of the Marine Protected Area of Portofino, in order to analyse the structure of the benthic communities at different depths over a short time scale. The same sampling was repeated 10 years later in 2013. In the 10‐year span, a significant change in the macroalgal coverage and composition was observed, while the overall richness and coverage of species remained almost unchanged. This process resulted in a significant reduction of the habitat complexity of the three‐dimensional algal components. Likewise, a remarkable change in terms of presence and abundance occurred among all zoobenthic components. The benthic communities seem to have suffered from detrimental effects probably caused by climatic events that have been occurring in recent years in the Ligurian Sea.