Polynomial chaos expansion for global sensitivity analysis applied to a model of radionuclide migration in a randomly heterogeneous aquifer

We perform global sensitivity analysis (GSA) through polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) on a contaminant transport model for the assessment of radionuclide concentration at a given control location in a heterogeneous aquifer, following a release from a near surface repository of radioactive waste. The aquifer hydraulic conductivity is modeled as a stationary stochastic process in space. We examine the uncertainty in the first two (ensemble) moments of the peak concentration, as a consequence of incomplete knowledge of (a) the parameters characterizing the variogram of hydraulic conductivity, (b) the partition coefficient associated with the migrating radionuclide, and (c) dispersivity parameters at the scale of interest. These quantities are treated as random variables and a variance-based GSA is performed in a numerical Monte Carlo framework. This entails solving groundwater flow and transport processes within an ensemble of hydraulic conductivity realizations generated upon sampling the space of the considered random variables. The Sobol indices are adopted as sensitivity measures to provide an estimate of the role of uncertain parameters on the (ensemble) target moments. Calculation of the indices is performed by employing PCE as a surrogate model of the migration process to reduce the computational burden. We show that the proposed methodology (a) allows identifying the influence of uncertain parameters on key statistical moments of the peak concentration (b) enables extending the number of Monte Carlo iterations to attain convergence of the (ensemble) target moments, and (c) leads to considerable saving of computational time while keeping acceptable accuracy.     

Climate and water budget change of a Mediterranean coastal watershed, Ravenna, Italy

It is generally difficult to quantify exactly the freshwater going in or out of the coastal watersheds along the northern Adriatic Sea because, on one hand, excess water is drained and pumped into the sea to prevent flooding but, on the other hand, water is brought onto the land from far away for irrigation. Fragmentation of water authorities makes it difficult to collect all the necessary information. Climate change and increasing salinization of the coastal aquifers make it imperative, however, to better know the quantities of freshwater involved in these small basins. The water budget of a small coastal agricultural watershed along the Adriatic Sea in Italy (The Quinto Basin near Ravenna) is presented here considering different land uses. The evaporation of open water and the evapotranspiration of wetlands, pine forests, bare soil and irrigated agriculture are calculated based on the Penman–Monteith equation and the Cropwat program. The current water budget is based on average climate data from 1989 to 2008 and drainage and irrigation data. Predictions for future evapotranspiration, net irrigation and hydrologic deficit are calculated with climate data from IPCC (The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) 200, Climate change 2007). From the study results, the soil type may determine whether or not a crop will need more or less irrigation in the future. Regulations on land use should therefore consider which crop type can be grown on a specific soil type. Water budget analysis in scenarios A1b and A2 both show an increase of water deficits in the summer and an increase of water surplus in the winter. This is explained by the fact that a larger percentage of the rain will fall in winter and not during the growth season. The open water evaporation will decrease under future climate scenarios as a result of increased relative humidity in winter and decreased wind velocity. This may have a positive effect on the water cycle. The current irrigation is very abundant, but has beneficial effects in contrasting soil salinization and saltwater intrusion into the coastal aquifer.     

Some results of the investigation of geomagnetic field variation in the Urals and the Carpathians

Summary. A precision magnetic survey for the investigation of current activity in the Earth's lithosphere has been carried out in the Urals and in the Carpathians. As a result of this research three types of time variation of the total field were discovered. These are:
(1) The normal field variation reflecting the general pattern of secular variation. The difference of initial and repeat observation where only this type of variation operates, is rather small and usually does not exceed 0.2–0.3 nT. The field changes in such regions can be used only to evaluate the observation errors and to provide the regional pattern of secular variation.
(2) The slow but localized'anomalous field'change from year to year corresponding, presumably, to anomalies of a tectonomagnetic nature. The normal pattern of the secular variation field here is disturbed by sources located in the upper part of the lithosphere.
(3) Irregular time changes of the field with rather large amplitudes (up to 10–20 nT). Repeated observations of such anomalies show that the field changes significantly here even during one day. Both in the Urals and Carpathians these anomalies form extended elongated structures with widths up to 10–30 km. These anomalies usually coincide with those deep faults where the strongest recent crustal movements have been determined by means of geodetic observations. The analysis of the results of precision geomagnetic surveys in the Urals and in the Carpathians shows that geomagnetic investigations can be used for the exploration of tectonically active zones.     

The Distribution and Seasonal Variation of Dissolved Trace Metals in Florida Bay and Adjacent Waters

Florida Bay is a shallow carbonate estuary in South Florida. It receives fresh waters from the Everglades that contribute a number of metals to the Bay. The Bay is the largest estuary in Florida with nearly pristine conditions. In this paper we report the first extensive studies of trace metals in the Bay. The seasonal distributions of trace metals (Sc, V, Cr, Co, Cu, Fe, Pb, Mn, Ni and Al) were determined on surface waters in Florida Bay and adjacent waters. The measurements in the Bay were made from May 2000 to May 2001, and the adjacent waters were sampled in September 2000 and May 2002. Most of the dissolved trace metals exhibited their maximum concentrations in summer, except Al and Pb that did not show any seasonal variability. The seasonal variations of the metals are related to the influx of fresh water from rainfall. The lowest concentrations are found during the dry season in the winter and the highest during the wet season in the summer. Several metals (V, Mn, Al, Sc, Fe, Co, Ni and Cr) exhibited their highest concentrations in the western zone of the Bay. These waters from agricultural areas are influenced by Gulf of Mexico waters, which carry metals coming from Barron, Broad and Shark rivers into the Bay. The Shark River always exhibited high concentrations of V, Mn, Al, Sc, Co and Cr. Other possible influences in the western and north-central zone of the Bay are from Flamingo Center, the creeks of Taylor Slough and the mangrove fringe of the Everglades. High concentrations of Al, Co, Ni, Cr, Cu, Fe, and Pb were detected in the eastern zone. The high values found in the northeast are influenced by Taylor Slough runoff and in the southeast by Key Largo, Tavernier Marina and the drainage from the main highway (US1) on Tavernier Key. The minimum concentrations for most of the metals were found in areas near the Key channels that exchange waters between Florida Bay and the Atlantic Ocean (Gulf Stream). The adjacent waters in the Atlantic side including the Gulf Stream waters showed very low concentrations for all the metals studied except for V. In the Bay correlations of V were found: (1) V with salinity and Al and (2) Sc with Si. Most of the other metals did not show any strong correlations with nutrients or salinity. Florida Bay is thus not a typical estuary due to the unique structure of its mud banks and multiple inputs of metals from the mangrove fringe in the north.     

Tectonic reorganizations and radiolarian assemblages of the northwest Pacific continental framing of Russia

Abstract Main stages of radiolarian taxonomic evolution in the Pacific rim of Russia are discussed. The diversity and distribution of radiolarian assemblages displayed in the studied sections and their geological and tectonic setting have implications regarding paleoecological and paleo-oceanographic conditions as well as paleotectonic reconstructions. Radiolarian events show the close relationship with the tectonic rearrangements in the Pacific and in North America. The attempt to analyze paleo-oceanological aspects and major factors affecting radiolarian events is presented.     

Tropical seagrass-associated macroalgae distributions and trends relative to water quality

Tropical coastal marine ecosystems including mangroves, seagrass beds and coral reef communities are undergoing intense degradation in response to natural and human disturbances, therefore, understanding the causes and mechanisms present challenges for scientist and managers. In order to protect our marine resources, determining the effects of nutrient loads on these coastal systems has become a key management goal. Data from monitoring programs were used to detect trends of macroalgae abundances and develop correlations with nutrient availability, as well as forecast potential responses of the communities monitored. Using eight years of data (1996–2003) from complementary but independent monitoring programs in seagrass beds and water quality of the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS), we: (1) described the distribution and abundance of macroalgae groups; (2) analyzed the status and spatiotemporal trends of macroalgae groups; and (3) explored the connection between water quality and the macroalgae distribution in the FKNMS. In the seagrass beds of the FKNMS calcareous green algae were the dominant macroalgae group followed by the red group; brown and calcareous red algae were present but in lower abundance. Spatiotemporal patterns of the macroalgae groups were analyzed with a non-linear regression model of the abundance data. For the period of record, all macroalgae groups increased in abundance (Ab_i) at most sites, with calcareous green algae increasing the most. Calcareous green algae and red algae exhibited seasonal pattern with peak abundances (Φ_i) mainly in summer for calcareous green and mainly in winter for red. Macroalgae Ab_i and long-term trend (m_i) were correlated in a distinctive way with water quality parameters. Both the Ab_i and m_i of calcareous green algae had positive correlations with NO₃⁻, NO₂⁻, total nitrogen (TN) and total organic carbon (TOC). Red algae Ab_i had a positive correlation with NO₂⁻, TN, total phosphorus and TOC, and the m_i in red algae was positively correlated with N:P. In contrast brown and calcareous red algae Ab_i had negative correlations with N:P. These results suggest that calcareous green algae and red algae are responding mainly to increases in N availability, a process that is happening in inshore sites. A combination of spatially variable factors such as local current patterns, nutrient sources, and habitat characteristics result in a complex array of the macroalgae community in the seagrass beds of the FKNMS.     

Size affects digestive responses to increasing temperature in fishes: physiological implications of being small under climate change

Digestive metabolism is considered key to resilience of fish populations as it determines energy and nutrient availability for growth and survival. In cleaner fishes, digestion performance also influences the amount and the rate at which parasites can be removed from co‐operating fishes, called hosts. Therefore, understanding the effect of temperature on digestive metabolic scope (i.e. the energy allocated to digestive processes) is crucial to predicting responses of fish communities to ocean warming. Body size can affect many physiologic processes and is thought to decrease with increasing temperature; therefore, we examined the effect of body mass and warming on digestive metabolic scopes in two sister species of cleaner gobies of the genus Elacatinus that reach different adult sizes. The dwarf‐size Elacatinus lobeli increased digestive metabolic rates and scope while the larger Elacatinus oceanops decreased digestive metabolic scope with warming. Intra‐specifically, larger E. lobeli also showed a decreased scope when compared to smaller individuals. Results from this study suggest that perhaps smaller fishes may have a digestive and metabolic advantage at higher temperatures and may be more resilient under warming temperatures.     

Glaciers in the Earth’s Hydrological Cycle: Assessments of Glacier Mass and Runoff Changes on Global and Regional Scales

Changes in mass contained by mountain glaciers and ice caps can modify the Earth’s hydrological cycle on multiple scales. On a global scale, the mass loss from glaciers contributes to sea-level rise. On regional and local scales, glacier meltwater is an important contributor to and modulator of river flow. In light of strongly accelerated worldwide glacier retreat, the associated glacier mass losses raise concerns over the sustainability of water supplies in many parts of the world. Here, we review recent attempts to quantify glacier mass changes and their effect on river runoff on regional and global scales. We find that glacier runoff is defined ambiguously in the literature, hampering direct comparison of findings on the importance of glacier contribution to runoff. Despite consensus on the hydrological implications to be expected from projected future warming, there is a pressing need for quantifying the associated regional-scale changes in glacier runoff and responses in different climate regimes.     

How the performance of hydrological models relates to credibility of projections under climate change

Two approaches can be distinguished in studies of climate change impacts on water resources when accounting for issues related to impact model performance: (1) using a multi-model ensemble disregarding model performance, and (2) using models after their evaluation and considering model performance. We discuss the implications of both approaches in terms of credibility of simulated hydrological indicators for climate change adaptation. For that, we discuss and confirm the hypothesis that a good performance of hydrological models in the historical period increases confidence in projected impacts under climate change, and decreases uncertainty of projections related to hydrological models. Based on this, we find the second approach more trustworthy and recommend using it for impact assessment, especially if results are intended to support adaptation strategies. Guidelines for evaluation of global- and basin-scale models in the historical period, as well as criteria for model rejection from an ensemble as an outlier, are also suggested.     

Geant4 simulations of soft proton scattering in X-ray optics

Low energy protons (< 300 keV) can enter the field of view of X-ray telescopes, scatter on their mirror surfaces at small incident angles, and deposit energy on the detector. This phenomenon can cause intense background flares at the focal plane decreasing the mission observing time (e.g. the XMM-Newton mission) or in the most extreme cases, damaging the X-ray detector. A correct modelization of the physics process responsible for the grazing angle scattering processes is mandatory to evaluate the impact of such events on the performance (e.g. observation time, sensitivity) of future X-ray telescopes as the ESA ATHENA mission. The Remizovich model describes particles reflected by solids at glancing angles in terms of the Boltzmann transport equation using the diffuse approximation and the model of continuous slowing down in energy. For the first time this solution, in the approximation of no energy losses, is implemented, verified, and qualitatively validated on top of the Geant4 release 10.2, with the possibility to add a constant energy loss to each interaction. This implementation is verified by comparing the simulated proton distribution to both the theoretical probability distribution and with independent ray-tracing simulations. Both the new scattering physics and the Coulomb scattering already built in the official Geant4 distribution are used to reproduce the latest experimental results on grazing angle proton scattering. At 250 keV multiple scattering delivers large proton angles and it is not consistent with the observation. Among the tested models, the single scattering seems to better reproduce the scattering efficiency at the three energies but energy loss obtained at small scattering angles is significantly lower than the experimental values. In general, the energy losses obtained in the experiment are higher than what obtained by the simulation. The experimental data are not completely representative of the soft proton scattering experienced by current X-ray telescopes because of the lack of measurements at low energies (< 200 keV) and small reflection angles, so we are not able to address any of the tested models as the one that can certainly reproduce the scattering behavior of low energy protons expected for the ATHENA mission. We can, however, discard multiple scattering as the model able to reproduce soft proton funnelling, and affirm that Coulomb single scattering can represent, until further measurements at lower energies are available, the best approximation of the proton scattered angular distribution at the exit of X-ray optics.