Metallic Mineral Resources in the Twenty-First Century. I. Historical Extraction Trends and Expected Demand

Industrial, technological, and economic developments depend on the availability of metallic raw materials. As a greater fraction of the Earth’s population has become part of developed economies and as developed societies have become more affluent, the demand on metallic mineral resources has increased. Yet metallic minerals are non-renewable natural resources, the supply of which, even if unknown and potentially large, is finite. An analysis of historical extraction trends for eighteen metals, going back to the year 1900, demonstrates that demand of metallic raw materials has increased as a result of both increase in world population and increase in per-capita consumption. These eighteen metals can be arranged into four distinct groups, for each of which it is possible to identify a consistent pattern of per-capita demand as a function of time. These patterns can, in turn, be explained in terms of the industrial and technological applications, and in some cases conventional uses as well, of the metals in each group. Under the assumption that these patterns will continue into the future, and that world population will grow by no more than about 50% by the year 2100, one can estimate the amount of metallic raw materials that will be required to sustain the world’s economy throughout the twenty-first century. From the present until the year 2100, the world can be expected to require about one order of magnitude more metal than the total amount of metal that fueled technological and economic growth between the age of steam and the present day. For most of the metals considered here, this corresponds to 5–10 times the amount of metal contained in proven ore reserves. The two chief driving factors of this expected demand are growth in per-capita consumption and present-day absolute population numbers. World population is already so large that additional population growth makes only a small contribution to the expected future demand of metallic raw materials. It is not known whether or not the amount of metal required to sustain the world’s economy throughout this century exists in exploitable mineral resources. In the accompanying paper, I show that it is nevertheless possible to make statistical inferences about the size distribution of the mineral deposits that will need to be discovered and developed in order to satisfy the expected demand. Those results neither prove nor disprove that the needed resources exist but can be used to improve our understanding of the challenges facing future supply of metallic raw materials.     

Recent water quality trends and a comparison to sediment-core records for two riverine lakes of the Upper Mississippi River basin: Lake St. Croix and Lake Pepin

Long-term water quality monitoring data from two riverine lakes in the Upper Mississippi River basin, Lakes St. Croix and Pepin, were analyzed to compare the long-term average water quality conditions and land use distributions, water quality trends and loads at lake inlets and outlets, trends from long-term versus short-term monitoring records, and the ability of paleolimnological cores to accurately infer lake water quality conditions. During the 1976–2004 period, the long-term average concentrations of nutrients, suspended solids, and chlorophyll-a were consistently lower at the Lake St. Croix inlet versus the Lake Pepin inlet, which drains a greater proportion of urban and agricultural runoff. Despite these differences, nutrient trends were similar at the inlets to both lakes; reductions in total phosphorus and ammonium concentrations were attributed to improvements in point source technologies, whereas increasing nitrate concentrations were attributed to both point source changes and nonpoint source increases. Despite improvements in several water quality variables, nitrate concentrations are increasing in both lakes, sediment trends indicate persistent nonpoint source inputs to Lake Pepin, and current total phosphorus concentrations remain well above pre-1950s levels in both lakes. Since urban development and agriculture are increasing in the Lake St. Croix and Lake Pepin Watersheds, continued point source regulation and additional nonpoint source control efforts will be needed to further improve water quality in these lakes. The 1976–2004 trends for most water quality variables were similar at inlet versus outlet sites on Lake St. Croix. Trends at Lake Pepin inlet versus outlet sites were less similar, but data availability limited the comparison to the 1993–2003 period. While the truncated data record highlighted short-term trends in both lakes, the full data record was most useful for exploring general patterns in water quality. Length of monitoring record affected our ability to detect trends at the inlets to both lakes, and altered the magnitude of detected trends. During the two decades of the 1980s and 1990s, paleolimnological estimates of retained phosphorus loads were similar to those estimated from recent water quality monitoring. These similarities support the use of paleolimnological approaches to infer past water quality conditions in Lakes St. Croix and Pepin. This is one of eight papers dedicated to the “Recent Environmental History of the Upper Mississippi River” published in this special issue of the Journal of Paleolimnology. D. R. Engstrom served as guest editor of the special issue.     

Effect of system variables and particle size on physical characteristics of air sparging plumes

Air was injected through a well in a thin transparent tank filled with saturated glass beads to study how the size and air saturation of air sparging plumes are affected by particle size and gradation; operational parameters such as injection pressure, well depth, injection pressure pulsing; and well outlet configuration. V-shaped air plumes with an apex between 40° and 60° were obtained for all tests. The air pressure required to initiate sparging agreed closely with the sum of the air entry pressure and the hydrostatic pressure, with higher initiation pressures required in the fine and well-graded beads. Higher air flow rates and air saturations were obtained in coarser beads at a given pressure, and the variation in flow rate was consistent with estimated air permeabilities. Peak average air saturations were 28–56% for the coarse-medium beads, 10% for the well-graded beads, and 8% for the fine beads. Air saturation and the radius of influence increased modestly (<40%) as the normalized injection pressure exceeded 0.1. Radius of influence increased by approximately a factor of two as the well depth increased, but leveled off once the ratio of radius of influence to well depth reached 0.60–1.05. Pulsing of injection pressure had no effect on the initiation pressure, air flow rate, or air saturation, but increased the size of the air plume and the radius of influence slightly (<15%). Well outlet configuration had only a slight affect the radius of influence (<10%), air saturation (<10%), or air flow rate (<12%). Dye testing showed that water surrounding the air plume circulated during continuous and pulsed sparging. However, pulsed sparging resulted in greater and more defined circulation of water within and adjacent to the air plume, which should reduce mass transfer limitations during sparging.     

RC J0311+0507: A candidate for superpowerful radio galaxies in the early universe at redshift z = 4.514

A strong emission line at 6703 Å has been detected in the optical spectrum for the host galaxy (R = 23.1) of the radio source RC J0311+0507 (4C+04.11). This radio galaxy, with a spectral index of 1.31 in the frequency range 365–4850 MHz, is one of the ultrasteep-spectrum objects from the deep survey of a sky strip conducted with RATAN-600 in 1980–1981. We present arguments in favor of the identification of this line with Lyα at redshift z = 4.514. In this case, the object belongs to the group of extremely distant radio galaxies of ultrahigh radio luminosity (P ₁₄₀₀ = 1.3 × 10²⁹ W Hz^?1). Such power can be provided only by a fairly massive black hole (～10⁹ M⊙) that formed in a time less than the age of the Universe at the observed z (1.3 Gyr) or had a primordial origin.     

北太平洋阻塞的年际年代际变化及其与SST、遥相关及风暴路径的关系

利用NCEP／NCAR再分析资料，对1948／1949－1999／2000共52个冬季的北太平洋上空中纬度阻塞异常的气修特征进行了统计分析，小波分析和功率谱分析结果表明该区域阻塞发生的频数具有很明显的3－7年的年际振荡和年代际变化特征。同时2－7年带通平均的小波方差谱分析结果表明阻塞的这种年际变化的振幅存在着缓慢下降的趋势，且气候突变在20世纪70年代，这进一步证明了北太平洋上空的阻塞活动具有年代际变化特征。对强阻塞异常的冬季和弱阻塞异常的冬季分别进行合成分析，结果表明，对于阻塞异常强的冬季，北太平洋西向东北方向加强并分裂成两个中心，而SST异常在中纬度太平洋则对应着典型的PDO型，在赤道地区则为类La Nina型的海温分布。而对于阻塞异常弱的冬季则对应截然不同甚至相反的分布特征，即500hPa高度异常场表现为符号相反的PNA型，风暴路径中心在日界线附近呈纬向型分布。同时SST异常在赤道地区则为典型的El Nino型的海温分布。以上结果揭示出北太平洋阻塞活动的年际变化可能主要与热带海温的遥响应相联系，而年代际变化则主要与中纬度局地的PDO型海温及其通过斜压瞬变波的海－气相互作用有关。     

Consistent patterns of the size distribution of thermokarst lakes

The purpose of this work is to study empirically the patterns of size distribution of thermokarst lakes within lacustrine thermokarst plains. Investigations were performed at 16 sites with various geomorphological, geocryological, and physical geographical conditions (Kolyma Lowland, Western Siberia, Lena River valley, Alaska). The accordance of the distribution area with the lognormal and exponential laws, and the accordance of the average diameter distribution with the normal law have been tested; the tested laws of distribution resulted from previous investigations. The results have shown that the lognormal law of distribution of thermokarst lake areas is valid for the vast majority of cases, and the other types of distribution are inconsistent with empirical data. This evidence favors the development pattern for lacustrine thermokarst plains, when thermokarst processes started simultaneously and the rate of lake growth was proportional to the density of heat loss through the side surface.     

Modern Bottom Sediments of Lake Onega: Structure,Mineralogical Composition,and Systematization of Rare-Earth Elements

The results of studying the structure and mineral composition of the Upper Holocene bottom sediments of Lake Onega are presented. It is established that there are two types of columns of bottom sediments, for which stratification of layers and formation of Fe–Mn crusts are determined by the diagenesis processes occurring under physicochemical conditions of sediment accumulation according to two scenarios. The distribution spectra of rare-earth elements (REEs) are different in the indicated types of columns, which is apparently attributed to the differences in the oxidation–reduction conditions at the water–sediment interface during the formation of REEs and possibly to the influence of hydrothermal processes.     

A Major Geoeffective CME from NOAA 12371: Initiation,CME–CME Interactions,and Interplanetary Consequences

In this article, we present a multi-wavelength and multi-instrument investigation of a halo coronal mass ejection (CME) from active region NOAA 12371 on 21 June 2015 that led to a major geomagnetic storm of minimum \(\mathrm{Dst} = -204\) nT. The observations from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory in the hot EUV channel of 94 Å confirm the CME to be associated with a coronal sigmoid that displayed an intense emission (\(T \sim6\) MK) from its core before the onset of the eruption. Multi-wavelength observations of the source active region suggest tether-cutting reconnection to be the primary triggering mechanism of the flux rope eruption. Interestingly, the flux rope eruption exhibited a two-phase evolution during which the “standard” large-scale flare reconnection process originated two composite M-class flares. The eruption of the flux rope is followed by the coronagraphic observation of a fast, halo CME with linear projected speed of 1366 km?s^?1. The dynamic radio spectrum in the decameter-hectometer frequency range reveals multiple continuum-like enhancements in type II radio emission which imply the interaction of the CME with other preceding slow speed CMEs in the corona within \(\approx10\)?–?\(90~\mbox{R} _{\odot}\). The scenario of CME–CME interaction in the corona and interplanetary medium is further confirmed by the height–time plots of the CMEs occurring during 19?–?21 June. In situ measurements of solar wind magnetic field and plasma parameters at 1 AU exhibit two distinct magnetic clouds, separated by a magnetic hole. Synthesis of near-Sun observations, interplanetary radio emissions, and in situ measurements at 1 AU reveal complex processes of CME–CME interactions right from the source active region to the corona and interplanetary medium that have played a crucial role towards the large enhancement of the geoeffectiveness of the halo CME on 21 June 2015.     

Geological Modeling of Gold Deposit Based on Grade Domaining Using Plurigaussian Simulation Technique

Mineral resource evaluation requires defining grade domains of an ore deposit. Common practice in mineral resource estimation consists of partitioning the ore body into several grade domains before the geostatistical modeling and estimation at unsampled locations. Many ore deposits are made up of different mineralogical ensembles such as oxide and sulfide zone: being able to model the spatial layout of the different grades is vital to good mine planning and management. This study addresses the application of the plurigaussian simulation to Sivas (Turkey) gold deposits for constructing grade domain models that reproduce the contacts between different grade domains in accordance with geologist’s interpretation. The method is based on the relationship between indicator variables from grade distributions on the Gaussian random functions chosen to represent them. Geological knowledge is incorporated into the model by the definition of the indicator variables, their truncation strategy, and the grade domain proportions. The advantages of the plurigaussian simulation are exhibited through the case study. The results indicated that the processes are seen to respect reproducing complex geometrical grades of an ore deposit by means of simulating several grade domains with different spatial structure and taking into account their global proportions. The proposed proportion model proves as simple to use in resource estimation, to account for spatial variations of the grade characteristics and their distribution across the studied area, and for the uncertainty in the grade domain proportions. The simulated models can also be incorporated into mine planning and scheduling.     

Accumulation of sediment,organic matter and trace metals with space and time,in a creek along Mumbai coast,India

Two core sediment samples; one from inner part (ManI) and the other closer to the mouth (ManII); were collected from the intertidal regions of Manori, a tidally influenced creek near Mumbai, India. Both the cores were subjected to various geochemical analyses to determine parameters such as pH, sediment components, total organic carbon, total nitrogen, total phosphorus and selected metals viz., Fe, Mn, Cu, Pb, Co, Ni, Zn, Cr, Al, Ca and V. Analysis of ²¹⁰Pb activity was employed to assess the sediment deposition trend of the area. The data was further processed using factor and cluster analyses. The results indicate that the sediments from site ManI, had finer sediment composition, higher porosity, organic matter and metal contents but exhibited an erratic decline in ²¹⁰Pb activity downcore. Also ManI showed higher C:N ratio and enrichment factor values as compared to site ManII. The inner area (ManI) probably received a greater input of organic matter from the erosion of terrestrial matter as well as domestic and industrial discharge. Sediments from site ManII had typical marine organic matter composition (lower C:N ratio). The concentration of metals at this site was also low indicating the contents were getting diluted by freshwater and seawater mixing.