Planetary Wave Periods in <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2 Time Variations Based on Winter Data from Kaliningrad Station in 2008−2010

The study presents the results of the analysis of the F2-layer critical frequency variations obtained for the winter periods of 2008–2010, during which sudden stratospheric warmings were observed. The data were obtained at Kaliningrad ionospheric station (54.6° N, 20° E) with the Parus digital ionosonde in standard sounding mode. The mean daily foF2 values were used in the analysis. The results of spectral analysis based on continuous wavelet transform showed that, during all of the warmings that occurred in 2008–2010, the foF2 time variations demonstrated the presence of wave processes with periods of approximately 5?6 days, as well as more extended processes with periods of ~10?13 and 23?30 days. These periods coincide with the characteristic periods of planetary waves observed in the mesosphere during sudden stratospheric warmings, while the 13- and 30-day periods can be conditioned by the influence of the Sun.     

Assessment of drought over the past two millennia using near-shore sediment cores from a Canadian boreal lake

Lack of long-term studies on drought in the boreal region of northwest Ontario limits our ability to assess the vulnerability of this region to climate change. We investigated changes in diatoms, scaled chrysophytes, and sedimentary pigments in two near-shore cores from Gall Lake to infer limnological and water-level changes over the last two millennia. The two coring locations, at modern water depths of 7.5 and 11.5 m, were selected to contrast inferences for past lake level based on distance from the modern water-depth boundary between predominantly benthic and planktonic diatom assemblages in surface sediments (6.0 m). Diatom-inferred depth inferences were more variable in the core from 7.5-m water depth, consistent with the hypothesis that the greatest changes occurred at water depths closest to the benthic:planktonic boundary. Both sites revealed a pronounced drought from ~AD 950 to 1300, synchronous with the medieval climate anomaly (MCA). This finding suggests a northeast expansion of the arid MCA into northwest Ontario, extending the known spatial extent of this megadrought. Scaled chrysophytes and sedimentary pigments suggest a recent increase in thermal stratification. Our findings indicate this region is more susceptible to changes in moisture than was previously suspected based on the instrumental record for the past century.     

Analysis of the activity of the blazar BL Lacertae over the period 1998–2011

In 1998–2011 the blazar (active galactic nucleus) BL Lacertae was observed at Crimean Astrophysical Observatory (CrAO) with the second-generation GT-48 Cherenkov telescope at energies >1 TeV with a total significance of 11.8σ. More than 20 flares and a fourfold change in yearly mean fluxes (>1 TeV) were recorded. The optical (B band) data obtained at CrAO and the TeV data are shown to correlate in some time intervals. The optical data are also compared with the X-ray RXTE/ASM (2–10 keV) data. In addition, the data from GT-48 are compared with the gamma-ray fluxes recorded by the Fermi LAT space telescope (0.1–300 GeV). The 2009 flare at TeV and Fermi energies has been studied. As a result, it has been found that as the activity rises the increase in flux at high energies exceeds its increase at low energies. This conclusion may be related to the conversion mechanism of particle acceleration. This is consistent with the results of studies for a similar object, 1ES 1426+428.     

Large debris avalanches and associated eruptions in the Holocene eruptive history of Shiveluch Volcano, Kamchatka, Russia

 Shiveluch Volcano, located in the Central Kamchatka Depression, has experienced multiple flank failures during its lifetime, most recently in 1964. The overlapping deposits of at least 13 large Holocene debris avalanches cover an area of approximately 200 km² of the southern sector of the volcano. Deposits of two debris avalanches associated with flank extrusive domes are, in addition, located on its western slope. The maximum travel distance of individual Holocene avalanches exceeds 20 km, and their volumes reach ∼3 km³. The deposits of most avalanches typically have a hummocky surface, are poorly sorted and graded, and contain angular heterogeneous rock fragments of various sizes surrounded by coarse to fine matrix. The deposits differ in color, indicating different sources on the edifice. Tephrochronological and radiocarbon dating of the avalanches shows that the first large Holocene avalanches were emplaced approximately 4530–4350 BC. From ∼2490 BC at least 13 avalanches occurred after intervals of 30–900 years. Six large avalanches were emplaced between 120 and 970 AD, with recurrence intervals of 30–340 years. All the debris avalanches were followed by eruptions that produced various types of pyroclastic deposits. Features of some surge deposits suggest that they might have originated as a result of directed blasts triggered by rockslides. Most avalanche deposits are composed of fresh andesitic rocks of extrusive domes, so the avalanches might have resulted from the high magma supply rate and the repetitive formation of the domes. No trace of the 1854 summit failure mentioned in historical records has been found beyond 8 km from the crater; perhaps witnesses exaggerated or misinterpreted the events. Received: 18 August 1997 / Accepted: 19 December 1997     

On the Retrieval of Volcanic Sulfur Dioxide Emissions from GOME Backscatter Measurements

We focus on the retrieval of volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions from an analysis of atmospheric UV backscatter spectra obtained by the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) spectrometer on board the ESA European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS-2). Here, the last major eruptions of Mt. Etna on Sicily (Italy) in July/August 2001 and October/November 2002 provided an excellent opportunity to study the retrieval of SO₂ columnar amounts from ground-based, LIDAR and satellite measurements. Our study shows that the bulk of emitted SO₂ was confined in the troposphere, mainly between 700 hPa and 400 hPa which is confirmed by trajectory analysis, by LIDAR observations and AVHRR observations. The area of influence of Mt. Etna eruptions ranges from the Western Saharan Desert to Greece and the near east states and even down to the basin of Tschad, Africa. Our analysis revealed that information about the plume height of volcanic eruptions and aerosol parameters is necessary for a reliable quantitative retrieval of SO₂ from space-borne sensor data at periods perturbed by volcanic eruptions.     

Development and evaluation of a storm surge warning system in Taiwan

An operational storm surge forecasting system aimed at providing warning information for storm surges has been developed and evaluated using four typhoon events. The warning system triggered by typhoon forecasts from Taiwan Cooperative Precipitation Ensemble Forecast Experiment (TAPEX) has been executed with two storm surge forecasting scenarios with and without tides. Three numerical experiments applying different meteorological inputs have been designed to assess the impact of typhoon forcing on storm surges. One uses synthetic wind fields, and the others use realistic wind fields with and without adjustments to the initial wind fields for the background circulation. Local observations from Central Weather Bureau (CWB) weather stations and tide gauge stations are used to evaluate the wind fields and storm surges from our numerical experiments. The comparison results show that the accuracy of the storm surge forecast is dominated by the track, the intensity, and the driving flow of a typhoon. When the structure of a typhoon is disturbed by Taiwan’s topography, using meteorological inputs from real wind fields can result in a better typhoon simulation than using inputs from synthetic wind fields. The driving flow also determines the impact of topography on typhoon movement. For quickly moving typhoons, storm forcing from TAPEX is reliable when a typhoon is strong enough to be relatively unaffected by environmental flows; otherwise, storm forcing from a sophisticated typhoon initialization scheme that better simulates the typhoon and environmental flows results in a more accurate prediction of storm surges. Therefore, when a typhoon moves slowly and interacts more with the topography and environmental flows, incorporating realistic wind fields with adjustments to the initial wind fields for the background circulation in the warning system will obtain better predictions for a typhoon and its resultant storm surges.     

Calculation of atmospheric electric fields penetrating from the ionosphere

The spatial distributions of electric fields and currents in the Earth’s atmosphere are calculated. Electric potential distributions typical of substorms and quiet geomagnetic conditions are specified in the ionosphere. The Earth is treated as a perfect conductor. The atmosphere is considered as a spherical layer with a given height dependence of electrical conductivity. With the chosen conductivity model and an ionospheric potential of 300 kV with respect to the Earth, the electric field near the ground is vertical and reaches 110 Vm⁻¹. With the 60-kV potential difference in the polar cap of the ionosphere, the electric field disturbances with a vertical component of up to 13 V m⁻¹ can occur in the atmosphere. These disturbances are maximal near the ground. If the horizontal scales of field nonuniformity are over 100 km, the vertical component of the electric field near the ground can be calculated with the one-dimensional model. The field and current distributions in the upper atmosphere can be obtained only from the three-dimensional model. The numerical method for solving electrical conductivity problems makes it possible to take into account conductivity inhomogeneities and the ground relief.