Efficient estimation of flood forecast prediction intervals via single‐ and multi‐objective versions of the LUBE method

Prediction intervals (PIs) are commonly used to quantify the accuracy and precision of a forecast. However, traditional ways to construct PIs typically require strong assumptions about data distribution and involve a large computational burden. Here, we improve upon the recent proposed Lower Upper Bound Estimation method and extend it to a multi‐objective framework. The proposed methods are demonstrated using a real‐world flood forecasting case study for the upper Yangtze River Watershed. Results indicate that the proposed methods are able to efficiently construct appropriate PIs, while outperforming other methods including the widely used Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamics of the two-dimensional ideal incompressible fluid and Casimirs

Problems are considered in which the role of Casimirs in forming dynamics of the two-dimensional ideal incompressible fluid is basically studied; in particular, the conditions are formulated which arise in the stability problem of two-dimensional flows in the presence of Casimirs. Some general approaches to the construction of difference schemes for solving equations of two-dimensional fluid which possess the given Casimirs are considered.     

Soil pipe flow tracer experiments: 1. Connectivity and transport characteristics

Much debate has occurred in catchment hydrology regarding the connectivity of flow paths from upslope areas to catchment outlets. This study was conducted in two catchments, one with three upper branches, in a loess soil with a fragipan that fosters lateral flow and exhibits an extensive distribution of soil pipe collapse features. The study aimed to determine the connectivity of multiple soil pipe networks as well as determine pipe flow velocities during storm events. Fluorescein dye was injected directly into soil pipes at the upper most pipe collapse feature of four different hillslopes. Breakthrough curves (BTC) were determined by sampling multiple pipe collapse features downslope. The BTCs were used to determine the ‘average’ (centre of mass) and ‘maximum’ (first arrival) flow velocities. This study confirmed that these catchments contain individual continuous soil pipe networks that extend over 190 m and connect the upper most hillslopes areas with the catchment outlet. While the flow paths are continuous, the individual pipe networks consist of alternating reaches of subsurface flow through soil pipes and reaches of surface flow through gullies formed by pipe collapses. In addition, flow can be occurring both through the subsurface soil pipes simultaneous with surface flow generated by artesian flow from the soil pipes. The pipe flow velocities were as high as 0.3 m/s, which was in the range of streamflow velocities. These pipe flow velocities were also in the range of velocities observed in pinhole erosion tests suggesting that these large, mature soil pipes are still actively eroding. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numerical and analytical observations on long and infinite slopes

Interest in the mechanics of landslides has led to renewed evaluation of the infinite slope equations, and the need for a more general framework for estimating the factor of safety of long and infinite slopes involving non‐homogeneous soil profiles. The paper describes finite element methods that demonstrate the potential for predicting failure in long slope profiles where the critical mechanism is not necessarily at the base of the soil layer. The influence of slope angle is also examined in long slopes, leading to some counter‐intuitive conclusions about the impact of slope steepness on the factor of safety. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Diatom-inferred depth models in 8 Canadian boreal lakes: inferred changes in the benthic:planktonic depth boundary and implications for assessment of past droughts

Assessment of past drought in boreal regions, a region predicted to be strongly affected by climate warming, can provide insights into future availability of water. However, limited instrumental data and paleoclimatic data are available for this assessment. To address this lack of data in the boreal region of northwest Ontario, a regional study of lakes in the Winnipeg River Drainage Basin was initiated. Diatom-inferred (D-I) depth models were developed based on surface samples collected along a depth gradient within 8 small boreal lakes. Weighted-averaging and modern analog approaches provided robust within-lake depth models for each of the study lakes, with bootstrapped r² values ranging from 0.90 to 0.98, and root-mean-squared-errors of prediction (RMSEP) between 1.1 and 2.5 m. Large differences in the estimated depth optima for three representative, but common diatom species across our 8 study lakes suggested that within-lake calibration datasets are more appropriate for inferring past drought based in depth models than a regional multi-lake calibration dataset, and that light and related variables are controlling factors governing the maximum depth of benthic taxa. A down-core application of the D-I depth models on a near-shore core from Meekin Lake, retrieved near the present-day ecotone between the benthic and planktonic diatom assemblages indicated highly similar trends in inferred depth (r = 0.96). The models have significant correlations with other metrics of changes in depth including diatom species richness (r = 0.74–0.78) and evenness (r = 0.76–0.8), thereby allowing a check on the strength and direction of the depth inferences down-core. Near-shore cores located near the benthic:planktonic transition is a sensitive region that can provide estimates of past droughts in lakes where such inferences have been difficult to estimate.