New Models for Long Range Forecasts of Summer Monsoon Rainfall over North West and Peninsular India

Summary New models based on (a) Multivariate Principal Component Regression (PCR) (b) Neural Network (NN) and (c) Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) techniques were developed for long-range forecasts of summer monsoon (June–September) rainfall over two homogeneous regions of India, viz., North West India and Peninsular India. The PCR and NN models were developed with two different data sets. One set consisted 42 years (1958–1999) of data with 8 predictors and the other, 49 years (1951–1999) of data with 6 predictors. The predictors were subjected to the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) before model development. Two different neural networks were designed with 2 and 3 hidden neurons. To avoid the nonlinear instability, 20 ensemble runs were made while training the network and the ensemble mean results are discussed. The LDA model was developed with 42 years of data (1958–1999) for classifying three rainfall intervals with equal prior probability of 0.33. Both the PCR and NN models showed useful forecast skill for NW India and Peninsular India. Models with 8 predictors performed better than the models with only 6 predictors. The NN model with 3 hidden neurons performed better than model with 2 hidden neurons. For NW India, the NN model performed better than the PCR model. The RMSE of the NN model and PCR model with 8 predictors for NW India (Peninsular India) during the independent period 1984–99 was 12.5% (12.2%) and 12.6% (11.5%), respectively. Corresponding figures for the models with 6 predictors are 15.0% (13.0%) and 13.9% (11.4%) respectively. During the independent period, model errors were large in 1991, 1994, 1997 and 1999. However all the models showed deteriorating predictive skill after 1988, both for NW India and Peninsular India. The LDA model correctly classified 62% of grouped cases for NW India and Peninsular India. The LDA model showed better skill in classifying deficient rainfall (< − 8%) over NW India and excess rainfall (> 3%) over Peninsular India. Received October 2, 1999 Revised December 28, 1999     

The Role of Forests in the Implementation of Russia’s Low-Carbon Development Strategy

Doklady Earth Sciences - The potential role of forests in achieving carbon neutrality in the Russian Federation by 2060 is analyzed. It is shown that the key rate in the Strategy for the...     

Stability and phase relations of nonstoichiometric clinopyroxenes in the join diopside-Ca-Eskola component at high pressures

The stability of nonstoichiometric clinopyroxenes in the Di-CaEsk join was experimentally studied, and phase diagrams were constructed for this join at pressures of 2.0 and 3.0 GPa. It was found that melting in the diopside part of the join occurs at anomalously low temperatures, and nonstoichiometric clinopyroxene coexists with a phase approaching diopside in composition. Phase relations along the Di-CaEsk join can be described and consistently interpreted only assuming that the diopside phase (α-diopside) is thermodynamically stable. The following phase volumes were observed along the solidus of the join at a pressure of 3.0 GPa: Cpx, αDi+Cpx, αDi+Cpx+Qtz, αDi+Cpx+Grt+Qtz, Cpx+Grt+Qtz, Cpx+Grt+Ky+Qtz, Grt+Ky+Qtz. Melting occurs via the eutectic reaction αDi+Cpx+Grt+Qtz=L at a temperature of about 1200°C in the diopside part of the system and via the eutectic reaction Cpx+Grt+Ky+Qtz=L at a temperature of 1400°C in the calcium-rich part of the system. At a pressure of 2.0 GPa, melting occurs at temperatures of 1200–1300°C via the eutectic reaction αDi+Cpx+ An + Qtz=L. The invariant equilibrium (L, An, Cpx, Grt, αDi, Qtz) lies within the pressure range 2.0–3.0 GPa. Nonstoichiometric clinopyroxenes form complex solid solutions, the compositions of which are not strictly confined to the Di-CaEsk join and depend on temperature, pressure, and phase association. Grossular garnets coexist with nonstoichiometric clinopyroxenes and α-diopside.     

Deep structure of the Racha earthquake source zone from seismic tomography data

The Racha earthquake of 1991 was the strongest of the earthquakes recorded in the Caucasus. It was studied by an international epicentral expedition. Unique data gathered by this expedition included records of aftershocks whose swarm was very intense. A 3-D velocity model is obtained from analysis of these data by the method of local earthquake tomography. The ancient crystalline basement and the sedimentary-volcanic Mesozoic-Cenozoic cover could be identified from cross sections of the P wave field. The eastern and western boundaries of an uplift in the basement of the Dzirulskii Massif are delineated. Linear low velocity heterogeneities correlating with the active Kakheti-Lechkhumi fault zone and two Trans-Caucasian linear fault zones are discovered in the basement. The cloud of aftershock hypocenters is shown to correlate with a reflector coinciding with the cover-basement interface.     

Marymia: an Archean, amphibolite facies-hosted, orogenic lode-gold deposit overprinted by Palaeoproterozoic orogenesis and base metal mineralisation, Western Australia

The Marymia gold deposit, comprising two orebodies, Keillor 1 and Keillor 2, is at the northern end of the Plutonic Well greenstone belt in the Marymia Inlier, in the southern Capricorn Orogen, just north of the Yilgarn craton. The Marymia Inlier is a discrete fault-bounded Archean gneiss-granitoid-greenstone domain surrounded by sedimentary basins that were formed and variably metamorphosed and deformed during several Palaeoproterozoic orogenic cycles. The greenstone sequence at Marymia is stratigraphically and geochemically similar to greenstone sequences in the Yilgarn craton, but was subjected to further deformation and metamorphism in the Palaeoproterozoic. Late Archean deformation (D1-D2) was ductile to brittle-ductile in style, whereas Palaeoproterozoic deformation was predominantly brittle. Equilibrium mineral assemblages indicate that peak amphibolite-facies metamorphism (540-575 °C, <3 kb) was overprinted by greenschist-facies metamorphism (300-360 °C). Petrographic textures indicate that prograde metamorphism was coeval with D1-D2, with peak metamorphism early to syn D2. Gold mineralisation at Marymia is hosted in metamorphosed tholeiitic basalts and banded iron formation. On a gross scale, the distribution of gold is controlled by D2 folds and shear zones. Lithological contacts with strong rheological or chemical contrasts provide local controls. Gold-related alteration comprises subtle millimetre- to centimetre-wide zones of silicification with variable amounts of quartz, hornblende, biotite, K-feldspar, plagioclase, calcite/siderite, scheelite, titanite, epidote, sulfide and telluride minerals. Quartz veins are generally narrow and discontinuous with low total volume of quartz. Gold is sited in the wall rock, at vein salvedges or within stringers of wall rock within veins. There are two distinct opaque-mineral assemblages: pyrite-pyrrhotite-chalcopyrite-galena and hessite-petzite-altaite-Bi-telluride-galena. Ore samples are variably enriched in Ag, Te, Pb, W, Cu, S and Fe reflecting heterogeneity of the ore mineralogy. Structural timing and temperature of formation of alteration and ore minerals support deposition of gold during late peak amphibolite-facies metamorphism from neutral to alkaline (pH=5-6), moderately oxidising (log P_O2,-21-22) and CO₂-bearing (X_CO2 Ƹ.2) fluids. The total sulfur content of the fluid is estimated at 1mDS. Lead isotope compositions support derivation of lead from within the local greenstone sequence. Gold lodes were deformed by faults and shear zones in the Palaeoproterozoic, with only limited remobilisation. Subeconomic, carbonate vein- and breccia-hosted base metal mineralisation is locally hosted within Palaeoproterozoic fault zones, which clearly cut gold lodes. Base-metal-related alteration is characterised by intense carbonatisation, chloritisation, and albitisation of the mafic host rocks. Mineral assemblages are consistent with formation at greenschist facies conditions. Lead isotope compositions support crystallisation at ca. 1.7 Ga from lead that is similar in composition to earlier gold-related galena.     

Modeling of deep-seated high-alumina parageneses on the basis of the stability fields of corundum- and spinel-normative assemblages of the system CaO–MgO–Al2O3–SiO2

To elaborate physicochemical models for the origin of crystalline rocks, experimental studies of the field of high-alumina assemblages of the system CaO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂ were carried out at 10–30 kbar and 1250–1535 °C. We have determined the phase relations between the melt (L) and An, Sp, Cpx, Cor, and Ga, the slope of the rays of the monovariant reactions An + Sp = Cpx + Cor + (Ga) and L = Cpx +Ga + Cor + Sp, the position of the nonvariant point (An, Sp, Cpx, Cor, Ga, L), and the compositions of phases participating in these reactions. Based on a topological analysis of the studied segment of the system CaO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂, we have substantiated that “eclogitization” must follow the reaction Opx + An + Sp = Cpx + Ga. A fundamental continuous series of eutectic monovariant equilibria was observed: L = Cpx + Opx + Fo + An, L = Cpx + Opx + An + Sp, L = Cpx (+ Ga) + An + Sp, and L = Cpx + Cor (+ Ga) + An. A change in the melt composition in this series of eutectic reactions depending on pressure must reflect the most likely magma genesis trend in nature. Comparision of the composition fields in which the above series of reactions is observed with the composition fields of the rocks of magmatic formations showed that this series is most similar to the alkali-earth series of rocks. The mineralogical compositions of cumulates and phenocrysts found in the effusive and dike varieties of these rocks correspond to unique sets of subsolidus phase associations and individual subsolidus phases crystallizing in this fundamental eutectic series.     

Electrical and electromagnetic surveys to locate possible causes of water seepage to ground surface at a quarry open pit near Helwan city,Egypt

Water seepage to ground surface at a limestone quarry located at Wadi Garawy about 20 km south-east of Helwan city in Egypt posed a real threat to the mining activity at the quarry. The quarry area is known to be very dry for decades and away from water utilities and infrastructures that may cause water leaks to the quarry. Geophysical investigation including 1D Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES), 2D Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) and 1D Transient Electromagnetic (TEM) surveys were conducted to characterize the rock sequence and locate what could be a possible source of water seepage to the quarry. The resistivity profiles generated from the VES and TEM surveys mapped the rock units in the area down to depths exceeded 100 m. The ERT profiles acquired from the quarrying zone close to the water seepage spot have imaged the top of groundwater level at few meters below the ground surface at the quarry open pit. The spot of groundwater seepage seemed to occur at an area of limestone dissolution that were filled by finer sediments. The finer sediments acted as a hydrological conduit that allowed an upward seepage of groundwater to ground surface under the capillary action effect.     

Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.     

Subpollen Particles as Atmospheric Cloud Condensation Nuclei

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - Bioparticles constitute a significant fraction of atmospheric aerosol. Their size range varies from nanometers (macromolecules) to hundreds of...     

Influence of the saffman force,lift force,and electric force on sand grain transport in a wind–sand flow

Quasi-horizontal trajectories of salting sand grains were found using high-speed video-recording in the desertified territory of the Astrakhan region. The sizes and displacement velocities of the saltating sand grains were determined. A piecewise logarithmic approximation of the wind profile in a quasi-stationary wind–sand flow is suggested, which is consistent with the data of observations and modeling. It was established that, in the regime of stationary saltation, the wind profile in the lower saltation layer of the wind–sand flow depends only slightly on the wind profile variations in the upper saltation layer. The vertical profiles of the horizontal wind component gradient in a quasi-stationary wind–sand flow were calculated and plotted. It was shown using high-speed video recording of the trajectory of a sand grain with an approximate diameter of 95 μm that the weightlessness condition in the desertified territory of the Astrakhan region in a stationary wind–sand flow is satisfied at a height of approximately 0.15 mm. The electric parameters of a wind–sand flow, which can provide for compensation of the force of gravity by the electric force, were estimated. In particular, if the specific charge of a sand grain is 100 μC/kg, the force of gravity applied to the sand grain can be compensated by the electric force if the vertical component of the electric field in a wind–sand flow reaches approximately 100 kV/m. It was shown that the quasi-horizontal transport of sand grains in the lower millimeter saltation layer observed in the desertified territory can be explained by the joint action of the aerodynamic drag, the force of gravity, the Saffman force, the lift force, and the electric force.