H 187 - At the Onset of a New Eclipse

CCD photometry data of the T Tauri star H 187 are presented. They show that a new eclipse of this star began at the end of 2004. Since only one eclipse of this star has been observed previously with a duration of 3.5 years, our data indicate that the eclipses of this object are periodic with a period P=4.9 years between eclipses. Thus, in terms of the absolute duration of the eclipses and in terms of their relative length as a fraction of the period, H 187 is one of the most exotic objects in the sky. __________ Translated from Astrofizika, Vol. 48, No. 4, pp. 529–534 (November 2005).     

The motion of an emission-line region near the center of the galaxy NGC 4151

Possible orbits for the motion of a region in the gravitational field of the central body of the galaxy NGC 4151 are presented. The region is manifest through its line emission, observed in the red wing of the Hα, Pβ, and other broad lines. We carried out a computer selection of all Keplerian orbits for which the measured radial velocities of the emission-line region could be observed. We used radial-velocity data obtained by us at the Fesenkov Astrophysical Institute, as well as data from the literature. The computation results can be used to determine the mass range for the central body of NGC 4151 that provides the best agreement with the observational data: (61–65)× 10⁶ M _⊙. Suitably designed monitoring of active galactic nuclei can be used to verify these results, and to carry out similar analyses for other Seyfert galaxies.     

Application of saddlepoint approximation in reliability analysis of dynamic systems

The application of the saddlepoint approximation to reliability analysis of dynamic systems is investigated. The failure event in reliability problems is formulated as the exceedance of a single performance variable over a prescribed threshold level. The saddlepoint approximation technique provides a choice to estimate the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the performance variable. The failure probability is obtained as the value of the complement CDF at a specif ied threshold. The method requires computing the saddlepoint from a simple algebraic equation that depends on the cumulant generating function (CGF) of the performance variable. A method for calculating the saddlepoint using random samples of the performance variable is presented. The applicable region of the saddlepoint approximation is discussed in detail. A 10-story shear building model with white noise excitation illustrates the accuracy and effi ciency of the proposed methodology.     

Lateral continuity of basement seismic reflections in 15 Ma ultrafast-spreading crust at ODP Site 1256

The Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) initiated drilling at Site 1256D in the Guatemala Basin, about 1,000 km off the East Pacific Rise to penetrate plutonic rocks, anticipated to be relatively shallow in this region, formed at an ultra-fast spreading rate. IODP Expedition E312 successfully drilled into gabbros at ~1,150 m in basement. Multi-channel seismic traces show weak laterally coherent sub-basement reflections at borehole depths. Synthetic reflectivity seismograms were computed using a Ricker wavelet and impedance profiles from borehole sonic logs. These seismograms show significant sub-basement amplitude peaks. A zero-offset vertical seismic profile, shot on E312, was processed to investigate the authenticity of these reflections and their relationship to borehole geology. A dual scheme of the median filtering and F–K dip filtering was used. Tests with synthetic seismograms indicate the approach is effective at reasonable SNR levels. Downgoing energy is clearly identified but negligible upgoing energy is visible over random noise. These results indicate that lava flows and igneous contacts in upper ocean crust have significant topography on lateral scales less than the Fresnel Zone (~300 m) due to igneous and tectonic processes.     

Behavior of the cosmic ray density during the initial phase of the Forbush effect

Variations in the cosmic ray density during the initial phase of the Forbush effect during the first hours after the arrival of the interplanetary shock wave have been studied with the use of data on variations in the cosmic ray density with a rigidity of 10 GV obtained by the global survey method by the world network of neutron monitors in 1957?2012. It is found that behavior of this parameter after the arrival of the shock wave demonstrates high variability. A small (~1/5 of total number), though distinct, group of Forbush effects, in which the density of the cosmic ray increases (not decreases) after the arrival of the shock wave, is defined. As a whole, the initial variation in cosmic ray density is correlated with the Forbush effect magnitude and the strength of the associated geomagnetic disturbance.     

An Analytical Model For Threshold Crossing Rates Of Concentration Fluctuations In Dispersing Plumes

A simple analytical model is developed for the meanupcrossing rate of plume concentration fluctuations assuming that thisprocess can be well approximated by a lognormal process. The resultingexpression requires only the specification of the in-plume fluctuationintensity and in-plume Taylor micro-time scale and, hence, does notexplicitly involve the joint probability density function of theconcentration and its derivative. The analytical model provides agood fit to some field measurements of the mean upcrossing rate ina dispersing plume.     

Spread <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis> in the Midlatitude Ionosphere According to DPS-4 Ionosonde Data

The results of studying spread F obtained from the DPS-4 ionosonde data at the observatory of the Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (Moscow) are presented. The methodical questions that arise during the study of a spread F phenomenon in the ionosphere are considered; the current results of terrestrial observations are compared with previously published data and the results of sounding onboard an Earth-satellite vehicle. The automated algorithm for estimation of the intensity of frequency spread F, which was developed by the authors and was successfully verified via comparison of the data of the digisonde DPS-4 and the results of manual processing, is described. The algorithm makes it possible to quantify the intensity of spread F in megahertz (the dFs parameter) and in the number of points (0, 1, 2, 3). The strongest spread (3 points) is shown to be most likely around midnight, while the weakest spread (0 points) is highly likely to occur during the daytime. The diurnal distribution of a 1–2 point spread F in the winter indicates the presence of additional maxima at 0300–0600 UT and 1400–1700 UT, which may appear due to the terminator. Despite the large volume of processed data, we can not definitively state that the appearance of spread F depends on the magnetic activity indices Kp, Dst, and AL, although the values of the dFs frequency spread interval strongly increased both at day and night during the magnetic storm of March 17–22, 2015, especially in the phase of storm recovery on March 20–22.