Developing a large‐scale water‐balance approach to seasonal forecasting: application to the 2012 drought in Britain

Seasonal hydrological forecasts, or outlooks, can potentially provide water managers with estimates of river flows and water resources for a lead time of several months ahead. An experimental modelling tool for national hydrological outlooks has been developed which combines a hydrological model estimate of sub‐surface water storage across Britain with a range of seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide estimates of area‐wide hydrological conditions up to a few months ahead. The link is made between a deficit in sub‐surface water storage and a requirement for additional rainfall over subsequent months to enable sub‐surface water storage and river flow to return to mean monthly values. The new scheme is assessed over a recent period which includes the termination of the drought that affected much of Britain in the first few months of 2012. An illustration is provided of its use to obtain return‐period estimates of the ‘rainfall required’ to ease drought conditions; these are well in excess of 200 years for several regions of the country, for termination within a month of 1 April 2012, and still exceed 40 years for termination within three months. National maps of sub‐surface water storage anomaly show for the first time the current spatial variability of drought severity. They can also be used to provide an indication of how a drought situation might develop in the next few months given a range of possible future rainfall scenarios. © 2013 CEH/Crown and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Haynesville Shale Well Performance and Development Potential

Louisiana’s Haynesville Shale is one of several unconventional gas plays that have been discovered in the U.S. in recent years and promise to dramatically change the course of future domestic energy development. The Haynesville Shale is the deepest, hottest, and highest pressured shale among the big four plays in the U.S. with drilling and completion cost ranging between 7 and7 and 10 million per well. The average Haynesville well has an initial production rate of 10 MMcfd and declines rapidly, producing 80% of its expected recovery during the first 2 years of production. The purpose of this article is to describe the productivity characteristics of Haynesville wells, project future production from the inventory of active wells, and assess production potential based on drilling scenarios. We offer statistical analysis of the wells drilled to date and construct type profiles to characterize the play. We estimate that the current inventory of Haynesville wells will produce 3 Tcf over their lifecycles, and within the next 3 years, cumulative build-out in the region will range between 3 and 9 Tcf. To maintain current gas production levels in the state, we estimate that about 550 shale gas wells per year will need to be brought online over the next 3 years.     

Age and source material of the Kingash ultramafic-mafic massif,East Sayan

The REE distribution patterns and Nd whole-rock and mineral isotope ratios of the Kingash ultramafic-mafic massif enabled us to propose a multistage history for its evolution at 1410 and 875 Ma. These stages reflect the magmatic evolution of the Siberian paleocontinent margin during the Late Precambrian. The age of metamorphism of the massif during collision and accretion in the Early Paleozoic (∼500 Ma) was obtained based on a Sm-Nd mineral isochron from rheomorphic veined albitite. The Nd and Sr isotopic compositions of rocks from the Kingash massif suggest mantle sources for picritic and basic magmas, which are thought to have originated by mixing of different proportions of depleted (PREMA or DM) and enriched (EM) melts. The initial isotope ratios of the parental melts transformed during interaction with Sr-rich material from the host metasedimentary complexes.     

Coral reef ecosystems protect shore from high-energy waves under climate change scenarios

Coral reefs and other coastal ecosystems such as seagrasses and mangroves are widely recognized to provide protection against the devastating effects of strong waves associated with tsunamis and storms. The predicted warming climate brings to fore the role of these ecosystems in providing protection against stronger typhoons that can result in more devastating waves of greater amplitude. We performed a model simulation of storm generated waves on a Philippine reef, which is located along the path of tropical storms, i.e., at least 10 typhoons on the average pass through the study site yearly. A model to simulate wave propagation was developed using Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) and DELFT3D-WAVE computer simulation software. Scenarios involving local monsoonal wind forcing and storm conditions were simulated. In addition, as climate change may also result to increased relative sea level, a 0.3 m and 1 m rise in sea level scenarios were also used in the wave model simulations. Results showed that the extensive reef system in the site helped dissipate wave energy that in turn reduced wave run-up on land. A significant reduction in wave energy was observed in both climate change, i.e., stronger wind and higher sea level, and non-climate change scenarios. This present study was conducted in a reef whose coral cover is in excellent condition (i.e., 50 to 80% coral cover). Estimates of coral reef growth are in the same order of magnitude as estimates of relative sea level rise based on tide gauge and satellite altimeter data, thus it is possible that the role of reefs in attenuating wave energy may be maintained if coral reef growth can keep up with the change in sea level. Nonetheless, to maintain reef growth, it is imperative to manage coral reef ecosystems sustainably and to eliminate the stressors that are within human control. Minimizing activities such as illegal and destructive blast and poison fishing methods, pollution and siltation, is crucial to minimize the impacts of high-energy waves that may increase with climate change.     

Studies of temperature effects of dust storms

We studied the temperature variations of the lower air layer caused by dust content using a dust storm in Dushanbe in November 2007 as an example. Quantitative estimates of air cooling and a decrease in the diurnal temperature difference due to a diminishing horizontal visibility range are given. Observations of air temperature variations due to the dust content of the atmosphere in an arid zone are presented. The critical value of aerosol concentration for toggling between the greenhouse and antigreenhouse effects is determined. The long-term effect of dust aerosol on climate is analyzed.     

The Extraction of Urban Surface Water from Hyperspectral Data Based on Spectral Indices

To prevent confusion between water and buildings in the extraction of urban surface water from hyperspectral data, we analyzed the spectra of shadows and water in hyperspectral images, and proposed an anti-shadow water extraction method. This method first uses the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for initial water extraction, then uses the height of the reflectance peak at 588 nm to eliminate the shadow of buildings. The method was validated by two hyperspectral datacubes, which were obtained for Jiaxing City and Zhoushan City in Zhejiang Province, China. Compared to the common spectral indices used to extract a water body, such as the NDVI, normalized difference water index, hyperspectral difference water index, and index of water index, the proposed method could effectively eliminate the shadow of buildings. The commission error reduced from more than 40% to about 15%, and the Kappa coefficient was increased from 60 and 70% to over 80% for the two datacubes. This indicated that the proposed method can inhibit the shadow of buildings and does not have a regional dependence.     

In-well time-of-travel approach to evaluate optimal purge duration during low-flow sampling of monitoring wells

A common assumption with groundwater sampling is that low (<0.5 L/min) pumping rates during well purging and sampling captures primarily lateral flow from the formation through the well-screened interval at a depth coincident with the pump intake. However, if the intake is adjacent to a low hydraulic conductivity part of the screened formation, this scenario will induce vertical groundwater flow to the pump intake from parts of the screened interval with high hydraulic conductivity. Because less formation water will initially be captured during pumping, a substantial volume of water already in the well (preexisting screen water or screen storage) will be captured during this initial time until inflow from the high hydraulic conductivity part of the screened formation can travel vertically in the well to the pump intake. Therefore, the length of the time needed for adequate purging prior to sample collection (called optimal purge duration) is controlled by the in-well, vertical travel times. A preliminary, simple analytical model was used to provide information on the relation between purge duration and capture of formation water for different gross levels of heterogeneity (contrast between low and high hydraulic conductivity layers). The model was then used to compare these time–volume relations to purge data (pumping rates and drawdown) collected at several representative monitoring wells from multiple sites. Results showed that computation of time-dependent capture of formation water (as opposed to capture of preexisting screen water), which were based on vertical travel times in the well, compares favorably with the time required to achieve field parameter stabilization. If field parameter stabilization is an indicator of arrival time of formation water, which has been postulated, then in-well, vertical flow may be an important factor at wells where low-flow sampling is the sample method of choice.