甘肃省降水神经元网络预报系统

利用Ｂ－Ｐ神经网络原理,建立了以多数据库为支撑的甘肃省降水神经元网络预报系统。经过试运行发现,该系统具有客观定量化、系统化、业务实用化以及预报效果较好等特点。     

祁连山东部高温天气气候分析和预报

通过对１９８０～１９９７年祁连山东部武威、民勤日最高气温≥３４℃日数统计得出,高温天气主要集中在７～８月;分析了高温出现的天气形势和气候规律,从而建立相应的高温短期预报工具。     

北票台吉地震与辽西地震相关分析

辽西地区被国家地震局列为“重点监测区”,该区区域构造复杂,近年来小震活动频繁,北票台吉地区处在辽西的中心部位,通过几年的观测研究,该区的小震活动与辽西地震活动有着很好的相关性。本文对北票台吉地震进行了各种分析研究,认为北票台吉地震与辽西地震有着很好的相关性,存在“窗口效应     

The Strong Earthquake Swarm in Jiashi, Xinjiang in 1997 and Three Successful Predictions of Impending Earthquakes

A strong earthquake swarm including 7 earthquakes with M≥6.0 occurred in Jiashi, Xinjiang region from January to April, 1997, which is rare for intraplate seismicity. They occurred in Tarim Basin which is relatively stable, has no discovered surface rupture and where the deep-seated tectonics are not clear. The Seismological Bureau of Xinjiang Region has made three successful impending predictions for the strong aftershocks and succeeding earthquakes in Jiashi. The injuries and deaths of people have been greatly reduced because of effective measures taken by the local government, and the social and economic results are remarkable. The article introduces a summary of the strong earthquake swarm and the main processes of the prediction, sums up the scientific bases of an impending prediction, and shows that the occurrence of the Jiashi strong earthquake swarm revealed some important scientific problems which should be studied further. The practice of the Jiashi earthquake prediction indicates again that     

Major Earthquakes in and Around Yunnan Province and Variations of Astronomical Time-Latitude Residuals Determined by Yunnan Observatory

In this paper,the features of medium-term anomalies for strong earthquakes and the criteria for the prediction of such earthquakes are discussed,as well as the feasibility of applying the anomalies of astronomical time-latitude residuals to earthquake prediction and their limitation when applied to imminent-term prediction.The criteria used to identify the anomalies of time-latitude residuals for M≥6.0 earthquakes in Yunnan Province and for M≥7.0 earthquakes around Yunnan are also discussed.The last strong earthquake in the data used for testing passed the whole process of earthquake prediction practice.In addition,some special features of the case in which anomalies appeared but no strong earthquake followed are also discussed.     

重叠地震波的分析

本文介绍了１９９５年４月２１—２３日菲律宾地区连续发生５次Ｍｓ≥７．０的地震时，地震波叠加在一起，佘山地震台利用台上各类性能的地震仪记录到的地震波进行分析，以求得各次地震的三要素。     

华北平原沉降地区重力场变化分析

华北平原沉降带相对于西部太行山区,近几年观测到的重力值相对1989年同期呈上升状态、其中某些地区累计上升量相当大,比如,沧州地区达143×10~(-8)m/s~2,任丘地区103×10~(-8)m/s~2,巨鹿—南宫为(89—103)×10~(-8)m/s~2.对某些地区的重力变化量进行地下水下降量和地面沉降量校正,其校正量可达到变化量的1/3—1/2.校正后的重力值变化幅度减小,但有些异常依然存在.这种较大的剩余变化量,可能含有两个因素:其一可能与华北平原沉降带的继承性下降及某些地区构造断裂活动有关;其二可能是实际地面沉降量比推测的沉降量大.     

日偏食对低纬地磁场的影响

１９９５年１０月２４日日偏食期间，我们在海南省琼中进行了地磁场总强度的观测和分析，同时运用该地磁台三分量磁照图，分析了地磁Ｄ场Ｄ、Ｈ、Ｚ三分量在日偏食期间的变化特征。结果表明：日偏食期间，磁偏角初亏后逐渐偏东，食甚后偏西；水平强度和总强度初亏后逐渐变小，食甚后上升；垂直强度初亏后逐渐变大，食甚后约１个小时变小。     

数字化钻孔体应变干扰机理及异常分析

对山东省钻孔体应变仪数字化观测资料的干扰及突跳异常进行了分析、讨论，认为：(1)山东省四个台站的钻孔体应变观测资料不同程度地受降雨、地下水位、气压、温度的影响，其中，烟台台体应变观测受到的干扰最多，影响最显，主要与其钻孔的地质条件有关。(2)长清台体应变观测资料中出现的几次突跳异常是由井孔内破碎带处掉下的岩块引起的变化。     

2001年11月14日昆仑山口西M 8.1地震前的缓慢地震事件

2001年11月14日昆仑山口西M8．1地震前发生了缓慢运动事件，新疆地震台网记录分析结果表明，这次事件在大震前3．5天开始出现，长周期前驱波持续约47小时，波列呈现规则的正弦波形，视周期约为8．8秒。笔者认为，该慢地震事件是M8．1大震前中昆仑断裂临震预滑动引起的。事实表明，慢地震的观测与研究对深入了解断层失稳过程和实现地震短临预报具有重大意义，同时也显示了宽频带数字地震台网的优越性。