Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon in NCEP coupled and uncoupled model

This study has identified probable factors that govern ISMR predictability. Furthermore, extensive analysis has been performed to evaluate factors leading to the predictability aspect of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) using uncoupled and coupled version of National Centers for Environmental Prediction Coupled Forecast System (CFS). It has been found that the coupled version (CFS) has outperformed the uncoupled version [Global Forecast System (GFS)] of the model in terms of prediction of rainfall over Indian land points. Even the spatial distribution of rainfall is much better represented in the CFS as compared to that of GFS. Even though these model skills are inadequate for the reliable forecasting of monsoon, it imparts the capacious knowledge about the model fidelity. The mean monsoon features and its evolution in terms of rainfall and large-scale circulation along with the zonal and meridional shear of winds, which govern the strength of the monsoon, are relatively closer to the observation in the CFS as compared to the GFS. Furthermore, sea surface temperature–rainfall relation is fairly realistic and intense in the coupled version of the model (CFS). It is found that the CFS is able to capture El Niño Southern Oscillation ISMR (ENSO-ISMR) teleconnections much strongly as compared to GFS; however, in the case of Indian Ocean Dipole ISMR teleconnections, GFS has the larger say. Coupled models have to be fine-tuned for the prediction of the transition of El Niño as well as the strength of the mature phase has to be improved. Thus, to sum up, CFS tends to have better predictive skill on account of following three factors: (a) better ability to replicate mean features, (b) comparatively better representation of air–sea interactions, and (c) much better portrayal of ENSO-ISMR teleconnections. This study clearly brings out that coupled model is the only way forward for improving the ISMR prediction skill. However, coupled model’s spurious representation of SST variability and mean model bias are detrimental in seasonal prediction.     

Estimating the surface wind speed over drifting pack ice from surface weather charts

Routine surface wind speed data, vital for the study of drifting pack ice, are not available for the polar oceans. Over sea, it has been demonstrated by Hasse that estimates of surface wind speed may be obtained from the geostrophic wind speed using linear formulae. Comparing estimated with observed data for six sites in Canada, it is found that the formulae may also be applied to obtain estimates of surface wind speed over pack ice.     

InSAR analysis of a blind thrust rupture and related active folding: the 1999 Ain Temouchent earthquake (M w 5.7, Algeria) case study

We study the surface deformation associated with the 22 December 1999 earthquake, a moderate sized but damaging event at Ain Temouchent (northwestern Algeria) using Interferometric Satellite Aperture Radar images (InSAR). The mainshock focal mechanism solution indicates reverse faulting with a NE–SW trending rupture comparable to other major seismic events of this section of the Africa–Eurasia plate boundary. Previously, the earthquake fault parameters were, however, poorly known because no aftershocks were precisely determined and no coseismic surface ruptures were observed in the field. Using a pair of ERS data with small baseline and short temporal separation in the ascending orbit we obtained an interferogram that shows the coseismic surface displacement field despite poor coherence. The interferogram measures four fringes and displays an ellipse-shaped lobe with ∼11 cm peak line-of-sight displacement. The elastic modeling using a boundary element method (Poly3Dinv) indicate coseismic slip reaching up to 1 m at 5 km depth on the N 57° E trending, dipping 32° NW Tafna thrust fault. The geodetic estimate of seismic moment is 4.7 × 10¹⁷ N m. (Mw 5.7) in is good agreement with seismological results. The elliptical shape of the surface displacement field coincides with the NE–SW trending Berdani fault-related fold. The consistency between the geological observations and InSAR solution shed light on the precise earthquake location and related Tafna fault parameters.     

The impact of the nitrogen carryover effect on economic activity and the environment

 The economic and environmental consequences of soil nitrogen tests can have significant impacts on agricultural production. Some of these are explored here. The pre-side-dress soil N-test is evaluated for a hypothetical farmer growing corn at the ARS Sustainable Agriculture Demonstration Farm site in southern Maryland. For a farmer not currently using a soil N-test, adoption of this technology can lead to the enhancement of net farm income and the reduction in nitrogen loss to the environment. This will transpire only if the farmer is currently underestimating nitrogen carryover by more than 25% or applying nitrogen fertilizer based solely on an expected plateau-yield goal. Received: 13 February 1997 · Accepted: 13 May 1997     

One-Dimensional Consolidation of Sedimented Stowed Pond Ash

Use of fly ash locked in the ash ponds in geotechnical applications such as stowing or backfilling of the mines is an attractive alternative to solve the disposal problem. Before it is used as a stowing or backfilling material, the response of the fly ash?to imposed load must be determined in order to assess its load taking ability. The present study examines the effect of time and incremental load on the consolidation characteristics of the sedimented stowed pond ash using a fixed ring consolidometer. The important parameters, viz. rate of settlement, consolidation coefficients and void ratio, etc. of the hydraulically stowed pond ash collected after 7, 14, 21, 28 and 35?days of stowing under step incremental loads are determined. The study revealed that 60.42–84.87% settlement of the sedimented stowed pond ash takes place in the initial 1?min of the loading. In addition, it is observed that the coefficient of consolidation of the sedimented stowed pond ash, which varies in the range of 0.0195–0.1882?cm²/min, is comparatively low and decreases with the increment of applied load and time. This indicates that the structures lying above the stowed pond ash mass will undergo gradual settling and not suffer large deformation.     

The impact of incorrectly estimating factor productivity in agriculture on the environment and human health

 This paper explores the implications of a misspecification of the production function on the use of factor inputs in the context of the adoption of an alternative production practice (a technological innovation) designed to mitigate the impact of agricultural production on human health and the environment. It is demonstrated that if the level of the use of some inputs is considered rather than their consumptive use (i.e., the actual amount used by a plant), the productivity of the input is inaccurately measured. It is also demonstrated that an aggregate production function approach can lead to overestimation of the value of the marginal product of an input due to the frequently implicit assumptions that the output supply, output demand, and fertilizer demand are infinitely price elastic. The implications of the results are important for determining the optimal use of inputs such as fertilizer and pesticides which have known adverse impacts on the environment and human health. Received: 22 November 1996 · Accepted: 4 May 1998     

The First Recorded Occurrences and the Distribution of Physalia physalis (Hydrozoa: Physaliidae) in Algerian Waters

Ocean Science Journal - Recently, there have been recorded findings of the pleustonic siphonophore Physalia physalis Linnæus, 1758, in different regions of Algeria. Several colonies washed...     

Recharge of the plio-quaternary water table aquifer in Tunisian chotts region estimated from stable isotopes

The hydrodynamic groundwater data and stable isotopes of water have been used jointly for better understanding of upward leakage and mixing processes in the Djerid aquifer system (southwestern Tunisia). The aquifer system is composed of the upper unconfined Plio-Quaternary (PQ) aquifer, the intermediate (semi-)confined Complex Terminal (CT) aquifer and the deeper confined Continental Intercalaire (CI) aquifer. A total of 41 groundwater samples from the CT and PQ aquifers were collected during June 2001. The stable isotope composition of waters establishes that the CT deep groundwater (depleted as compared to present Nefta local rainfall) is ancient water recharged during late Quaternary time. The relatively recent water in the shallow PQ aquifer is composed of mixed water resulting from upward leakage and sporadic meteoric recharge. In order to characterize the meteoric input signal for PQ in the study area, rainfall water samples were collected during 4 years (2000–2003) at the Nefta meteorological station. Weighted mean values of isotopic contents with respect to rainfall amounts have been computed. Despite the short collection period in the study area, results agree with those found in Beni Abbes (southwestern Algerian Sahara) by Fontes on 9 years of rainfall surveillance. Stable isotopic relationships provide clear evidence of shallow PQ aquifer replenishment by deep CT groundwater. The ¹⁸O/upward leakage rate allowed the identification of distinctive PQ waters related to CT aquifer configuration (confined in the western part of the study area, semi-permeable in the eastern part). These trends were confirmed by the relation ¹⁸O/TDS. The isotope balance model indicated a contribution of up to 75% of the deep CT groundwater to the upper PQ aquifer in the western study area, between Nefta and Hazoua.