Uncertainty and learning: implications for the trade-off between short-lived and long-lived greenhouse gases

The economic benefits of a multi-gas approach to climate change mitigation are clear. However, there is still a debate on how to make the trade-off between different greenhouse gases (GHGs). The trade-off debate has mainly centered on the use of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs), governing the trade-off under the Kyoto Protocol, with results showing that the cost-effective valuation of short-lived GHGs, like methane (CH₄), should be lower than its current GWP value if the ultimate aim is to stabilize the anthropogenic temperature change. However, contrary to this, there have also been proposals that early mitigation mainly should be targeted on short-lived GHGs. In this paper we analyze the cost-effective trade-off between a short-lived GHG, CH₄, and a long-lived GHG, carbon dioxide (CO₂), when a temperature target is to be met, taking into consideration the current uncertainty of the climate sensitivity as well as the likelihood that this will be reduced in the future. The analysis is carried out using an integrated climate and economic model (MiMiC) and the results from this model are explored and explained using a simplified analytical economic model. The main finding is that the introduction of uncertainty and learning about the climate sensitivity increases the near-term cost-effective valuation of CH₄ relative to CO₂. The larger the uncertainty span, the higher the valuation of the short-lived gas. For an uncertainty span of ±1°C around an expected climate sensitivity of 3°C, CH₄ is cost-effectively valued 6.8 times as high as CO₂ in year 2005. This is almost twice as high as the valuation in a deterministic case, but still significantly lower than its GWP₁₀₀ value.     

32Si dating of sediments from Lake Baikal

We applied the ³²Si dating technique to a sediment core from Lake Baikal to obtain the sediment chronology for the last millennium. The core was recovered about 4 km offshore from the north slope of the South Basin in 1,366 m water depth. The sediment material consisted of continuously accumulated diatom-rich geogenic-terrigenous mud, intercalated with a number of dark olive-grey turbidite layers. The sediment layers containing the turbidites were excluded from ³²Si sampling to obtain the chronology that is representative of the continuous sedimentation. The initial ³²Si activity of 31.3 dpm kg^?1 SiO₂, measured in sediment trap samples, confirms the trend of ³²Si specific activities of biogenic silica found in other Northern Hemisphere lakes. The four sediment core samples from depth 0–48 cm have ³²Si specific activities between 23.5 and 0.5 dpm kg^?1 SiO₂, with corresponding ages between 60 and 860 years and constant sedimentation rate of 0.036 ± 0.004 cm year^?1 over the most recent 800 years. ³²Si allowed us for the first time to date the uppermost turbidites in the South Basin of Lake Baikal, to 1030, 1310 and 1670 ad. Given these dates, the last long-distance turbidity current triggered by slope instabilities had occurred 330 years before 2000 ad, and the intervals between the 1310 and 1670 ad event and between the 1030 and 1310 ad event were 360 and 280 years, respectively. The ³²Si ages allow unprecedented time resolution for reconstruction of the former environmental and climatic conditions during the past millennium.     

Zum Umweltverhalten von Fluortensiden. Teil 3: Reinigung der industriellen Abwässer

Four fluorotensides which are used mainly industrially are investigated with respect to their removability from waters. Since, in general, fluorotensides are difficult to remove or not at all removable biochemically, the effects of chemical or physicochemical treatment processes are tested. As the results represented in pictures and tables show, different modes of behaviour can be recognized with respect to the respective purification effect for the investigated fluorotensides, partly among them. Flocculation with Al- and Fe-salts as well as chlorination and ozonization show only partial effects. But all the investigated fluorotensides can be adsorptively eliminated by means of powder or granular active charcoal and adsorbent resin Wofatit EA₆₀.     

The Berchtesgaden National Park (Bavaria, Germany): a platform for interdisciplinary catchment research

The Berchtesgaden National Park (Bavaria, Germany), a study site of the UNESCO Man and the Biosphere program in the catchment of Berchtesgadener Ache, is introduced as a platform for interdisciplinary research. As the investigation of how human activities affect the natural resources in the park area, which has been defined a main aim of the program, naturally requires expertise from different scientific fields, interdisciplinary research has been fostered in the national park plan since the very beginning of the Man and the Biosphere program in 1981. To analyze the complex interactions and mutual dependencies between socio-economic and natural systems, a variety of monitoring programs have been initialized in different disciplines (e.g. climate sciences, zoology, botany) that are addressed in this paper. As a result of these research efforts, the park offers a profound data basis to be used in future studies (e.g. land cover classifications, maps of geological and soil conditions). Detailed information is provided on a climate monitoring network that has been installed in the park starting in the year 1993. The network has been continuously extended over the years and now provides extraordinary comprehensive information on meteorological conditions in the park, setting the basis for current as well as for potential future climate-related studies. A special characteristic of the station network is the fact that it covers a large range of elevations from 600 m a.s.l in the valleys to 2,600 m a.s.l in the summit regions and is therefore able to capture altitudinal gradients in meteorological variables as typical for Alpine regions. Due to the large number of stations in high elevations (15 stations are in elevations higher than 1,500 m a.s.l) the network provides information on the complex hydrometeorological conditions in summit regions which are often insufficiently represented in observation networks due to the increased costs for maintenance of climate stations in these locations. Beside the various monitoring programs, a variety of numerical models have been (further) developed for application in the park area that make extensive use of the different data collected and therefore largely benefit from the comprehensive data pool. The potential and necessity of the climate monitoring network for modelling studies is demonstrated by utilizing the meteorological recordings in the framework of a hydrometeorological simulation experiment. Further examples of environmental modelling efforts are shortly described together with preliminary model results.     

Konzepte zur Mobilitätsabschätzung von Schadstoffen in Boden- und Abfallmaterialien

Concepts for the Evaluation of Contaminant Mobility in Soil and Waste Materials Elution tests (S4, pH_stat, and SDS test) are presented, enabling the evaluation of the mobility of hydrophilic/hydrophobic and inorganic/organic contaminants in soil and waste materials. While elution tests for estimation of the mobilization potential of hydrophilic substances are performed following the pH_stat method, for hydrophobic species surfactant-containing eluents are used. The individual parameters of the elution process are selected assuming a "worst-case" scenario. In principle, because of economic reasons, detailed analytical investigations should be preceded by relevant screening tests.     

Photometric elements and evolutionary status of eclipsing binary DI Pegasi

The light curves of eclipsing binary DI Pegasi inU, B. andV filters have been presented and discussed. Photometric elements of the system have been determined. Using the colour indices, we estimate absolute dimensions and discuss the evolutionary status of the system.     

Sm–Nd and Sr isotope systematics of scheelite from the giant Au(–W) deposit Muruntau (Uzbekistan): implications for the age and sources of Au mineralization

The application of the Sm-Nd isotope system of scheelite to dating of low-sulfide, quartz-vein hosted Au mineralization is still under discussion. In the present work, new Sm-Nd and Rb-Sr data for scheelite from the giant Muruntau/Myutenbai Au deposit (Kyzylkum, Western Uzbekistan) are discussed. Based on the geological relationship, mineralogical properties, and trace element characteristics, two types of scheelite can be distinguished within the deposit. The first one is represented by early bluish luminescent and weakly coloured scheelite (generation 1) found within strongly deformed flat quartz veins. The apparent isochron defined by this scheelite (351ᆪ Ma) is interpreted as a mixing line. Typically brownish to orange and yellowish luminescent scheelite from steeply dipping veins (generation 2) defines a Sm-Nd isochron age of 279ᆦ Ma ()_Nd=-9.5ǂ.3; MSWD: 1.5). No evidence for mixing or disturbance by late alteration were found for these scheelites. This Sm-Nd isochron age agrees with the Rb-Sr and K-Ar age range for wall rock alteration in this deposit reported previously. The age of 280 Ma is interpreted to date the high-grade ore formation in the Muruntau deposit. There are currently no reliable age data available on the magmatic events in the Muruntau region. Probably, there is some overlap in time of the Hercynian gold deposition with the intrusion of lamprophyric dykes. The Nd and Sr isotopic signatures of scheelite define the wall rocks (mainly metasiltstones and metasandstones) as the most probable sources for these elements in scheelite.     

The ALOMAR Rayleigh/Mie/Raman lidar: objectives, configuration, and performance

We report on the development and current capabilities of the ALOMAR Rayleigh/Mie/Raman lidar. This instrument is one of the core instruments of the international ALOMAR facility, located near Andenes in Norway at 69°N and 16°E. The major task of the instrument is to perform advanced studies of the Arctic middle atmosphere over altitudes between about 15 to 90 km on a climatological basis. These studies address questions about the thermal structure of the Arctic middle atmosphere, the dynamical processes acting therein, and of aerosols in the form of stratospheric background aerosol, polar stratospheric clouds, noctilucent clouds, and injected aerosols of volcanic or anthropogenic origin. Furthermore, the lidar is meant to work together with other remote sensing instruments, both ground- and satellite-based, and with balloon- and rocket-borne instruments performing in situ observations. The instrument is basically a twin lidar, using two independent power lasers and two tiltable receiving telescopes. The power lasers are Nd:YAG lasers emitting at wavelengths 1064, 532, and 355 nm and producing 30 pulses per second each. The power lasers are highly stabilized in both their wavelengths and the directions of their laser beams. The laser beams are emitted into the atmosphere fully coaxial with the line-of-sight of the receiving telescopes. The latter use primary mirrors of 1.8 m diameter and are tiltable within 30° off zenith. Their fields-of-view have 180 rad angular diameter. Spectral separation, filtering, and detection of the received photons are made on an optical bench which carries, among a multitude of other optical components, three double Fabry-Perot interferometers (two for 532 and one for 355 nm) and one single Fabry-Perot interferometer (for 1064 nm). A number of separate detector channels also allow registration of photons which are produced by rotational-vibrational and rotational Raman scatter on N₂ and N₂+O₂ molecules, respectively. Currently, up to 36 detector channels simultaneously record the photons collected by the telescopes. The internal and external instrument operations are automated so that this very complex instrument can be operated by a single engineer. Currently the lidar is heavily used for measurements of temperature profiles, of cloud particle properties such as their altitude, particle densities and size distributions, and of stratospheric winds. Due to its very effective spectral and spatial filtering, the lidar has unique capabilities to work in full sunlight. Under these conditions it can measure temperatures up to 65 km altitude and determine particle size distributions of overhead noctilucent clouds. Due to its very high mechanical and optical stability, it can also employed efficiently under marginal weather conditions when data on the middle atmosphere can be collected only through small breaks in the tropospheric cloud layers.