Using longwave HIRS radiances to test climate models

A ‘model-to-radiance’ comparison of simulated brightness temperatures from the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model 2 with measurements from the High Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder/4 (HIRS/4) instrument onboard the MetOp-A satellite is presented. For the all-sky, the model overestimates brightness temperatures in the atmospheric window region with the greatest biases over areas associated with deep convective cloud. In contrast to many global climate models, much smaller clear-sky biases are found indicating that model clouds are the dominating source of error. Simulated values in upper atmospheric CO₂ channels approximate observations better as a result of compensating cold biases at the poles and warm biases at lower latitudes, due to a poor representation of the Brewer Dobson circulation in the 38 level ‘low-top’ configuration of the model. Simulated all and clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) evaluated against the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and HIRS OLR products reveal good agreement, in part due to cancellation of positive and negative biases. Through physical arguments relating to the spectral energy balance within a cloud, it is suggested that broadband agreement could be the result of a balance between positive window biases and unseen negative biases originating from the water vapour rotational band in the far infrared (not sampled by HIRS).     

Sources of uncertainty in projections of twenty-first century westerly wind changes over the Amundsen Sea,West Antarctica,in CMIP5 climate models

The influence of changes in winds over the Amundsen Sea has been shown to be a potentially key mechanism in explaining rapid loss of ice from major glaciers in West Antarctica, which is having a significant impact on global sea level. Here, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model data are used to assess twenty-first century projections in westerly winds over the Amundsen Sea (U _AS ). The importance of model uncertainty and internal climate variability in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario projections are quantified and potential sources of model uncertainty are considered. For the decade 2090–2099 the CMIP5 models show an ensemble mean twenty-first century response in annual mean U _AS of 0.3 and 0.7 m s^?1 following the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively. However, as a consequence of large internal climate variability over the Amundsen Sea, it takes until around 2030 (2065) for the RCP8.5 response to exceed one (two) standard deviation(s) of decadal internal variability. In all scenarios and seasons the model uncertainty is large. However the present-day climatological zonal wind bias over the whole South Pacific, which is important for tropical teleconnections, is strongly related to inter-model differences in projected change in U _AS (more skilful models show larger U _AS increases). This relationship is significant in winter (r = ?0.56) and spring (r = ?0.65), when the influence of the tropics on the Amundsen Sea region is known to be important. Horizontal grid spacing and present day sea ice extent are not significant sources of inter-model spread.     

Carbon Sequestration and Sediment Accretion in San Francisco Bay Tidal Wetlands

Tidal wetlands play an important role with respect to climate change because of both their sensitivity to sea-level rise and their ability to sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Policy-based interest in carbon sequestration has increased recently, and wetland restoration projects have potential for carbon credits through soil carbon sequestration. We measured sediment accretion, mineral and organic matter accumulation, and carbon sequestration rates using ¹³⁷Cs and ²¹⁰Pb downcore distributions at six natural tidal wetlands in the San Francisco Bay Estuary. The accretion rates were, in general, 0.2?C0.5?cm?year^?1, indicating that local wetlands are keeping pace with recent rates of sea-level rise. Mineral accumulation rates were higher in salt marshes and at low-marsh stations within individual sites. The average carbon sequestration rate based on ²¹⁰Pb dating was 79?g?C?m^?2?year^?1, with slightly higher rates based on ¹³⁷Cs dating. There was little difference in the sequestration rates among sites or across stations within sites, indicating that a single carbon sequestration rate could be used for crediting tidal wetland restoration projects within the Estuary.     

Anchors for the cosmic distance scale: the Cepheid QZ Normae in the open cluster NGC 6067

Cepheids are key to establishing the cosmic distance scale. Therefore it’s important to assess the viability of QZ Nor, V340 Nor, and GU Nor as calibrators for Leavitt’s law via their purported membership in the open cluster NGC 6067. The following suite of evidence confirms that QZ Nor and V340 Nor are members of NGC 6067, whereas GU Nor likely lies in the foreground: (i) existing radial velocities for QZ Nor and V340 Nor agree with that established for the cluster ( $-39.4\pm0.2(\sigma_{\bar {x}}) \pm1.2 (\sigma)~\mbox{km/s}$ ) to within 1 km/s, whereas GU Nor exhibits a markedly smaller value; (ii) a steep velocity-distance gradient characterizes the sight-line toward NGC 6067, thus implying that objects sharing common velocities are nearly equidistant; (iii) a radial profile constructed for NGC 6067 indicates that QZ Nor is within the cluster bounds, despite being 20′ from the cluster center; (iv) new BVJH photometry for NGC 6067 confirms the cluster lies d=1.75±0.10 kpc distant, a result that matches Wesenheit distances computed for QZ Nor/V340 Nor using the Benedict et al. (Astron. J. 133:1810, 2007, HST parallaxes) calibration. QZ Nor is a cluster Cepheid that should be employed as a calibrator for the cosmic distance scale.     

Book Reviews

The UK Hydrographic Office (UKHO)-sponsored Vertical Offshore Reference Frames (VORF) project aims to develop tidal level transformation models that are referenced to the GRS80 ellipsoid and thus compatible with GNSS positioning; in particular, heighting. Benefits include increasing the efficiency of hydrographic surveying, providing a stable consistent reference frame and enabling integration with land data in the coastal zone. Seven contemporary global ocean tide models are used to derive Lowest Astronomical Tide (LAT) surfaces which are each assessed by comparison with LAT values from the 7,389-strong UKHO tide gauge database, with the results correlated with distance from land. The proportion of truly offshore and pelagic gauges is relatively limited; however, the transition zone whereby the global ocean tide models commence to deteriorate in accuracy is evident at approximately 30km from the coast. The DTU10 model was selected as the strongest candidate overall. Subsequently, a thin plate spline method is used with the tide gauge dataset to enhance the DTU10 LAT surface in the coastal zone, creating a high resolution global LAT surface with respect to mean sea level. It is seen by cross-validation that the method may be used to predict LAT in near-shore locations with a standard error of 0.23 m.     

The Chemical Nature of Phosphorus in Subtropical Lake Sediments

The phosphorus (P) composition of sediment profiles in three subtropical lakes of contrasting trophic state in Florida, USA, was determined by sequential fractionation and solution ³¹P NMR spectroscopy. Sediment from Lake Annie, an oligo-mesotrophic sinkhole with moderately acidic sediment (pH 5.4; loss on ignition 58 %), contained higher total P concentrations than sediment from eutrophic Lake Okeechobee (pH 7.7, loss on ignition 36 %) and hyper-eutrophic Lake Apopka (pH 7.5, loss on ignition 69 %). The chemical nature of sediment P varied markedly among the three lakes, suggesting the predominance of different diagenetic processes. Lake Okeechobee sediment was dominated by inorganic P, indicating the dominance of abiotic reactions; Lake Annie sediment contained abundant organic P throughout the sediment profile, indicating the importance of organic P stabilization at acidic pH; Lake Apopka contained almost half of its sediment P in microbial biomass, indicating the importance of biotic processes in regulating P dynamics. Solution ³¹P NMR spectroscopy of NaOH–EDTA extracts revealed that organic P occurred mainly as phosphomonoesters in all lakes. However, sediment from Lake Apopka also contained abundant phosphodiesters and was the only lake to contain detectable concentrations of polyphosphate, perhaps due to a combination of alternating redox conditions and high concentrations of inorganic phosphate and organic carbon. Organic P concentrations determined by sequential fractionation and solution ³¹P NMR spectroscopy were similar for all lakes when microbial P was included in values for sequential fractionation. We conclude that the chemical nature of sediment P varies markedly depending on trophic state and can provide important information on the dominant processes controlling P cycling in subtropical lakes.     

Uranium(6+) sorption on montmorillonite: Experimental and surface complexation modeling study

Sorption interactions with montmorillonite and other clay minerals in soils, sediments, and rocks are potentially important mechanisms for attenuating the mobility of U(6+) and other radionuclides through the subsurface environment. Batch experiments were conducted (in equilibrium with atmospheric % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXafv3ySLgzGmvETj2BSbqefm0B1jxALjhiov2D% aebbfv3ySLgzGueE0jxyaibaiiYdd9qrFfea0dXdf9vqai-hEir8Ve% ea0de9qq-hbrpepeea0db9q8as0-LqLs-Jirpepeea0-as0Fb9pgea% 0lrP0xe9Fve9Fve9qapdbaqaaeGacaGaaiaabeqaamaabaabcaGcba% acbiGaiWiG-bfadaWgaaWcbaacbaGaa43qaiaa+9eadaWgaaqaaiaa% +jdaaWqabaaaleqaaaaa!400D!\[P_{CO_2 } \])to determine the effects of varying pH (2 to 9), solid-mass to solution-volume ratio (M/V = 0.028 to 3.2 g/L), and solution concentration (2 × 10^?7 and 2 × 10^?6 M ²³³U) on U(6+) sorption on SAz-1 montmorillonite. The study focused on U(6+) surface complexation on hydroxylated edge sites as the sorption mechanism of interest because it is expected to be the predominant sorption mechanism at pHs typical of natural waters (pH ≈6 to ≈9). Thus, the experiments were conducted with a 0.1 M NaNO₃ matrix to suppress ion-exchange between U(6+) in solution and interlayer cations. The results show that U(6+) sorption on montmorillonite is a strong function of pH, reaching a maximum at near-neutral pH (≈6 to ≈6.5) and decreasing sharply towards more acidic or more alkaline conditions. A comparison of the pH-dependence of U(6+) sorption with that of U(6+) aqueous speciation indicates a close correspondence between U(6+) sorption and the predominance field of U(6+)-hydroxy complexes. At high pH, sorption is inhibited due to formation of aqueous U(6+)-carbonate complexes. At low pH, the low sorption values indicate that the 0.1 M NaNO₃ matrix was effective in suppressing ion-exchange between the uranyl (UO₂ ²⁺) species and interlayer cations in montmorillonite. At pH and carbonate concentrations typical of natural waters, sorption of U(6+) on montmorillonite can vary by four orders of magnitude and can become negligible at high pH. The experimental results were used to develop a thermodynamic model based on a surface complexation approach to permit predictions of U(6+) sorption at differing physicochemical conditions. A Diffuse-Layer model (DLM) assuming aluminol (>AlOH^?) and silanol (>SiOH^?) edge sites and two U(6+) surface complexation reactions per site effectively simulates the complex sorption behavior observed in the U(6+)-H₂O-CO₂-montmorillonite system at an ionic strength of 0.1 M and pH > 3.5. A comparison of model predictions with data from this study and from published literature shows good agreement and suggests that surface complexation models based on parameters derived from a limited set of data could be useful in extrapolating radionuclide sorption over a range of geochemical conditions. Such an approach could be used to support transport modeling by providing a better alternative to the use of constant K _d s in transport calculations.     

The role of northern Arabian Sea surface temperature biases in CMIP5 model simulations and future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Many climate models have problems simulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its variability, resulting in considerable uncertainty in future projections. Problems may relate to many factors, such as local effects of the formulation of physical parametrisation schemes, while common model biases that develop elsewhere within the climate system may also be important. Here we examine the extent and impact of cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases developing in the northern Arabian Sea in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, where such SST biases are shown to be common. Such biases have previously been shown to reduce monsoon rainfall in the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) by weakening moisture fluxes incident upon India. The Arabian Sea SST biases in CMIP5 models consistently develop in winter, via strengthening of the winter monsoon circulation, and persist into spring and summer. A clear relationship exists between Arabian Sea cold SST bias and weak monsoon rainfall in CMIP5 models, similar to effects in the MetUM. Part of this effect may also relate to other factors, such as forcing of the early monsoon by spring-time excessive equatorial precipitation. Atmosphere-only future time-slice experiments show that Arabian Sea cold SST biases have potential to weaken future monsoon rainfall increases by limiting moisture flux acceleration through non-linearity of the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. Analysis of CMIP5 model future scenario simulations suggests that such effects are small compared to other sources of uncertainty, although models with large Arabian Sea cold SST biases may suppress the range of potential outcomes for changes to future early monsoon rainfall.     

Late Llandovery thelodonts and conodonts from the Kilbride Formation,Co. Galway,western Ireland

Acid etching of a calcareous sandstone horizon within the lower part of the upper Llandovery Kilbride Formation, exposed at Coolin Lough, Co. Galway, has yielded a phosphatic microfauna dominated by conodont elements and thelodont scales. The thelodonts are identified as Loganellia ex gr. scotica and provide the first record of fishes from the Lower Silurian of Ireland; they suggest a Telychian age. The conodont fauna is dominated by Icriodella, indicative of a nearshore environment of deposition. The microfossils were extracted from a shell bed packed with Eocoelia curtisi curtisi Ziegler, confirming a late Telychian age and also suggesting a shallow water depositional environment. This fauna developed marginal to Laurentia and is similar to coeval assemblages from the Anglo–Welsh area and Baltoscandia. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Palaeomagnetic,geochronological and geological constraints on the tectonic evolution of the Mejillones Peninsula,northern Chile

Palaeomagnetic and geochronological data from an Early Palaeozoic high grade metamorphic complex (Jorgina Formation) and Jurassic layered basic intrusion (Moreno Complex) are reported from the Mejillones Peninsula of northern Chile (23–23°30'S). ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar dates from the Lower Palaeozoic Jorgina Formation and the Moreno Complex are between 170 and 158 Ma, coincident with a phase of emplacement of the north Chilean coastal batholith. This suggests that intrusion and magnetization of the Moreno Complex and the metamorphism and remagnetization of the Jorgina Formation were related to batholith emplacement. Extracted stable components of magnetization from all units (17 sites) define site-mean directions with a scattered distribution. The scatter in site-mean directions is interpreted as being due to minor, localized, non-uniform, block-fault related (normal or strike-slip, or both) rotation after 158 Ma. The palaeomagnetic and geochronological data indicate that no significant large-scale latitudinal translation of crustal blocks has taken place in this part of northern Chile since the Late Jurassic. In addition, they indicate that the uniform clockwise rotation after the mid-Cretaceous which affected the adjacent Cordillera de la Costa either did not extend into the Mejillones Peninsula or took the form of localized block-fault rotations. The restriction of palaeomagnetically defined styles of rotation to discrete areas within the north Chilean forearc indicates that forearc wide block-fault rotation models are not applicable to the Pacific margin of northern Chile.