Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta—the Netherlands as an example

Sea level rise, especially combined with possible changes in storm surges and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat in low-lying river deltas. In this study we focus on a specific example of such a delta: the Netherlands. To evaluate whether the country’s flood protection strategy is capable of coping with future climate conditions, an assessment of low-probability/high-impact scenarios is conducted, focusing mainly on sea level rise. We develop a plausible high-end scenario of 0.55 to 1.15 m global mean sea level rise, and 0.40 to 1.05 m rise on the coast of the Netherlands by 2100 (excluding land subsidence), and more than three times these local values by 2200. Together with projections for changes in storm surge height and peak river discharge, these scenarios depict a complex, enhanced flood risk for the Dutch delta.     

Contributions of individual countries?? emissions to climate change and their uncertainty

We have compiled historical greenhouse gas emissions and their uncertainties on country and sector level and assessed their contribution to cumulative emissions and to global average temperature increase in the past and for a the future emission scenario. We find that uncertainty in historical contribution estimates differs between countries due to different shares of greenhouse gases and time development of emissions. Although historical emissions in the distant past are very uncertain, their influence on countries?? or sectors?? contributions to temperature increase is relatively small in most cases, because these results are dominated by recent (high) emissions. For relative contributions to cumulative emissions and temperature rise, the uncertainty introduced by unknown historical emissions is larger than the uncertainty introduced by the use of different climate models. The choice of different parameters in the calculation of relative contributions is most relevant for countries that are different from the world average in greenhouse gas mix and timing of emissions. The choice of the indicator (cumulative GWP weighted emissions or temperature increase) is very important for a few countries (altering contributions up to a factor of 2) and could be considered small for most countries (in the order of 10%). The choice of the year, from which to start accounting for emissions (e.g. 1750 or 1990), is important for many countries, up to a factor of 2.2 and on average of around 1.3. Including or excluding land-use change and forestry or non-CO₂ gases changes relative contributions dramatically for a third of the countries (by a factor of 5 to a factor of 90). Industrialised countries started to increase CO₂ emissions from energy use much earlier. Developing countries?? emissions from land-use change and forestry as well as of CH₄ and N₂O were substantial before their emissions from energy use.     

A model study of factors influencing projected changes in regional sea level over the twenty-first century

In addition to projected increases in global mean sea level over the 21st century, model simulations suggest there will also be changes in the regional distribution of sea level relative to the global mean. There is a considerable spread in the projected patterns of these changes by current models, as shown by the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment (AR4). This spread has not reduced from that given by the Third Assessment models. Comparison with projections by ensembles of models based on a single structure supports an earlier suggestion that models of similar formulation give more similar patterns of sea level change. Analysing an AR4 ensemble of model projections under a business-as-usual scenario shows that steric changes (associated with subsurface ocean density changes) largely dominate the sea level pattern changes. The relative importance of subsurface temperature or salinity changes in contributing to this differs from region to region and, to an extent, from model-to-model. In general, thermosteric changes give the spatial variations in the Southern Ocean, halosteric changes dominate in the Arctic and strong compensation between thermosteric and halosteric changes characterises the Atlantic. The magnitude of sea level and component changes in the Atlantic appear to be linked to the amount of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) weakening. When the MOC weakening is substantial, the Atlantic thermosteric patterns of change arise from a dominant role of ocean advective heat flux changes.     

Stratigraphic evolution of a submarine channel-lobe complex system in a narrow fairway within the Magallanes foreland basin, Cerro Toro Formation, southern Chile

This study integrates newly acquired stratigraphic data, geologic mapping, and paleocurrent data to constrain the stratigraphic evolution of the oldest channel-lobe complex in the Upper Cretaceous Cerro Toro Formation in the Silla Syncline area of the Magallanes Basin, termed the Pehoe member. The Pehoe member ranges in thickness from 60 m in the north to at least 410 m farther down system and comprises three separate divisions (A, B, and C). A lower conglomerate unit and an upper one, termed Pehoe A and C divisions respectively, represent the fill of major incised submarine channels or channel complexes. These are separated by stratified sandstone of the Pehoe B division, representing a weakly confined lobe complex, either transient or terminal.The integration of new data with observations from previous studies reveal that the three main coarse-grained conglomerate and sandstone members in the Cerro Toro Formation in the Silla Syncline include at least seven distinct submarine channels or channel complexes and two major lobe complexes. The thinning and disappearance of these units along the eastern limb of the syncline reflect confinement of the flows to a narrow trough or mini-basin bounded to the east by a topographic high. This confinement resulted in unidirectional paleocurrents to the south and southeast in all deposits. Changes in depositional geometries are interpreted as reflecting changes in sediment supply and relative confinement. Submarine channels were from 700 m to 3.5 km wide and occupied a fairway that was 4-5 km wide. Flows moving south and southeast in this mini-basin probably crossed the eastern topographic high south of the present exposures and joined those moving southward along the axis of the foreland basin at least 16 km to the east.     

Holocene vegetation and volcanic activity,Auckland Isthmus,New Zealand

A 12 000 to 4000 yr BP pollen and tephra-bearing profile from Auckland, New Zealand, provides insights into the vegetation history and evidence for early Holocene volcanic activity in this area centred on the Mount Wellington basaltic volcano. Possibly 500 yr separated initial scoriaceous ash deposition (ca. 9500 yr ago) and subsequent major lava flows (ca. 9000 yr ago) from Mount Wellington. The local vegelation, topography, and drainage patterns were substantially modified during this time, and damming by the lava flows resulted in the formation of Lake Waiatarua in a shallow valley head ca. 9000 yr ago. Diatom evidence indicates that this lake was initially deep (> 5 m) but was shallowing around 4000 yr ago. In contrast to the Mount Wellington eruptions, tephra deposition resulting from distant rhyolitic volcanic activity of the central North Island and Mayor Island has had little effect on the Auckland vegetation during this time interval (12 000–4000 yr ago). Between ca. 12 000 and 10 000 yr ago, conifer-angiosperm forest was the predominant vegetation cover on Auckland Isthmus, but during the early Holocene, forest dominated by Metrosideros expanded, probably on to fresh volcanic surfaces resulting from the Mount Wellington eruptions. At this time, swamp forest communities developed in Waiatarua valley basin, and included species indicative of moist, mild, relatively frost-free climates. Some taxa show histories consistent with other records from the northern New Zealand region, including the rise of Ascarina lucida ca. 11 000 to 9000 yr ago, and its subsequent decline, and the expansion of Agathis australis (kauri) forest communities from ca. 6000 yr ago. Taken together the history of local and regional vegetation points to a mild, moist and weakly seasonal early Holocene climate, which subsequently became drier with greater seasonal temperature extremes.     

Restricted shallow-water sedimentation of Early Archean stromatolitic and evaporitic strata of the Strelley Pool Chert,Pilbara Block,Western Australia

The 3.4 Ga-old Strelley Pool Chert is a 25-m thick sedimentary unit near the top of the predominantly volcanic Warrawoona Group in greenstone belts of the eastern Pilbara Block, Western Australia. It is here subdivided into 5 members containing 13 lithofacies. The basal Member, I, is composed of quartzose sandstone deposited in a high-energy wave- or tide-dominated shallow-water system. Overlying this are Members II and III, which make up the bulk of the formation and were deposited in a low-energy, partially restricted hypersaline basin. They record a predominantly regressive succesion of deposits including subaqueous laminite, stromatolite and evaporite; stromatolite, carbonaceous laminite, black-and-white banded chert, evaporite and intraformational detrital units deposited under intermittently to predominantly exposed conditions; and subaerially deposited windblown sand, evaporite and evaporite-solution layers. Members IV and V record the progradation of a volcaniclastic alluvial fringe.The Strelley Pool Chert represents an association of sedimentary environments directly comparable to that observed in modern, low-energy, shallow-marine carbonate-evaporite systems, such as along the Trucial Coast of the Persian Gulf, and abundantly developed in Phanerozoic carbonate platform deposits. There is no evidence, however, that uniquely identifies the environment as having been marine. Deposition may have taken place in either a large hypersaline lake or a restricted marine basin. Evidence of predominantly low energy depositional conditions and a paucity of terrigenous detritus indicate that sedimentation was dominated by orthochemical and biological processes. Silicified evaporites, including coarsely crystalline layers resembling Messinian selenite, are widespread and similar to younger evaporite deposits. They clearly indicate that evaporites were common within shallow-water Archean sequences. The presence of an assemblage of biogenic deposits, including organic laminite, stromatolites, encrusting carbonaceous mats, carbonaceous granules and oncolites, deposited under conditions ranging from fully subaqueous to nearly subaerial and locally evaporitic, points to the existence of an ecologically and probably biologically diverse microbial community 3.4 Ga ago.     

GEOLOGY AND TERRESTRIAL AGE OF THE DERRICK PEAK METEORITE OCCURRENCE,ANTARCTICA

Sixteen iron meteorites together weighing 320 kg were recovered from the north-eastern flank of Derrick Peak, northern Britannia Range, Antarctica (156°30′E, 80°05′S), in December 1978. The well preserved meteorites rested cleanly upon an elevated, lag covered, glacially carved post-Middle Miocene to Pliocene bench cut into Devonian orthoquartzites intruded by Jurassic dolerite, and at a lower elevation upon Middle Pleistocene glacial drifts. In considering that the irons are in situ, and based on drift correlations along the Transantarctic Mountains, a maximum terrestrial age of 200,000–300,000 years B.P. is favoured.     

Sedimentology of the Middle Marker (3.4 Ga), Onverwacht Group,Transvaal, South Africa

The Middle Marker is a thin (3–6 m) sedimentary unit at the base of the Hooggenoeg Formation in the 3.4 Ga old Onverwacht Group, Barberton Mountain Land, South Africa. The original sediments consisted largely of current-deposited volcaniclastic detritus now represented by green to buff-colored silicified volcaniclastic rock and fine-grained gray chert. Black chert, possibly formed by the silicification of a non-volcaniclastic precursor, makes up a significant part of the unit. The Middle Marker is underlain and overlain by mafic and commonly pillowed volcanic flowrock. Although the original sediment has been replaced by and/or recrystallized to a microquartz, chlorite, sericite, carbonate and iron oxide mosaic under lower greenschist-grade metamorphism, sedimentary textures and structures are remarkably well preserved. Textural pseudomorphs indicate the primary volcaniclastic sediment consisted of a mixture of crystal, vitric and lithic debris. Middle Marker sediments were deposited as a prograding, cone-flanking volcaniclastic sedimentary platform in a relatively-shallow and locally current/wave-influenced subaqueous sedimentary environment. Available paleocurrent data indicate a largely bimodal, orthogonal distribution pattern which is quite similar to both ancient and modern shallow marine/shelf systems. Diagnostic evidence for tidal activity is lacking. As felsic volcanic activity waned, an extensive airfall blanket of fine-grained volcanic ash and dust was deposited in a low-energy subaqueous environment. The sedimentary cycle was terminated with a renewal of submarine mafic volcanism. Middle Marker volcaniclastic sediments accumulated in an anorogenic basin removed or isolated from the influence of continental igneous and metamorphic terranes. Although compositionally dominated by a volcanic source, Middle Marker sediments owe their final texture and sedimentary structures to subaqueous sedimentary rather than volcanogenic processes.