Canary in a coal mine: perceptions of climate change risks and response options among Canadian mine operations

A survey documenting how climate change is perceived and responded to by Canadian mine operations was administered to a random sample of practitioners working at mine sites across Canada. Key findings include: (1) Mines are sensitive to climatic hazards; (2) There is concern about climate change among mine practitioners, but the majority have not yet noticed climate change to be affecting operations; (3) Future climate change is expected to have negative impacts for mine operations; (4) Mines are responding to climate change mainly through efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions but also through adaptation, although to a lesser degree; and (5) Knowledge of future climate change projections and impacts is limited, potentially constraining understanding of the nature of climate change risks. The survey compliments previous work documenting perceptions among upper level management on climate change in the Canadian mining industry. The results from both surveys are largely consistent, establishing that the mining sector perceives climate change as an emerging risk and is developing response options, but needs to invest more time and resources for adaptation to what are inevitable changes in climate. The results support the need for targeted in-depth research to assess the vulnerability of mining to climate change and to evaluate response options.     

Integration of biochemical, histochemical and toxicogenomic indices for the assessment of health status of mussels from the Tamar Estuary, U.K

The aim of this study was to examine whether a combination of biochemical, histopathological and toxicogenomic data could be used as a valuable tool for the assessment of biological risk associated with pollutants within the Tamar River and Estuary, S.W. England, U.K. Accordingly, biochemical and histopathological biomarkers (protein carbonyls, lipofuscin, neutral lipids, lysosomal stability [N-acetyl-β-hexosaminidase and neutral red], lysosomal volume, ferric reducing antioxidant power [FRAP] and malonaldehyde [MDA]) and gene expression profiles were assessed in 5 sites from the Tamar River and Estuary (Neal Point, Town Quay, Wilcove, Cremyll Ferry and Whitsand; and a reference site, Trebarwith Strand, N. Cornwall). PAHs were measured in mussel tissue and sediment and metals were measured in mussel tissue only. Data from the biomarkers was integrated into a Mussel Expert System (MES) model to produce a simple assessment of mussel stress. Clear gradients of mussel toxicity were identified by the biomarkers (with the exception of neutral lipids) with the highest impacted animals found furthest up the Tamar, whilst the MES was unable to identify a gradient of effect. Gene expression profiles also indicated a gradient of stress with the greatest number of significantly up- or down- regulated genes found at the uppermost 2 sites. The MES did, however, determine that mussels from all sites, except the reference site, were highly stressed; a conclusion that could not be inferred from the biomarker data alone. It is concluded that the MES is a valuable tool that permits integration and interpretation of complex sets of biomarker data by identifying the biological meaning of biomarker changes.     

Impacts of climate, lake size, and supra- and sub-permafrost groundwater flow on lake-talik evolution, Yukon Flats, Alaska (USA)

In cold regions, hydrologic systems possess seasonal and perennial ice-free zones (taliks) within areas of permafrost that control and are enhanced by groundwater flow. Simulation of talik development that follows lake formation in watersheds modeled after those in the Yukon Flats of interior Alaska (USA) provides insight on the coupled interaction between groundwater flow and ice distribution. The SUTRA groundwater simulator with freeze–thaw physics is used to examine the effect of climate, lake size, and lake–groundwater relations on talik formation. Considering a range of these factors, simulated times for a through-going sub-lake talik to form through 90 m of permafrost range from ～200 to >?1,000  years (vertical thaw rates <?0.1–0.5  m?yr^?1). Seasonal temperature cycles along lake margins impact supra-permafrost flow and late-stage cryologic processes. Warmer climate accelerates complete permafrost thaw and enhances seasonal flow within the supra-permafrost layer. Prior to open talik formation, sub-lake permafrost thaw is dominated by heat conduction. When hydraulic conditions induce upward or downward flow between the lake and sub-permafrost aquifer, thaw rates are greatly increased. The complexity of ground-ice and water-flow interplay, together with anticipated warming in the arctic, underscores the utility of coupled groundwater-energy transport models in evaluating hydrologic systems impacted by permafrost.     

Comparative phylogeography of African rain forest trees: A review of genetic signatures of vegetation history in the Guineo-Congolian region

The biogeographic history of the African rain forests has been contentious. Phylogeography, the study of the geographic distribution of genetic lineages within species, can highlight the signatures of historical events affecting the demography and distribution of species (i.e. population fragmentation or size changes, range expansion/contraction) and, thereby, the ecosystems they belong to. The accumulation of recent data for African rain forests now enables a first biogeographic synthesis for the region. In this review, we explain which phylogeographic patterns are expected under different scenarios of past demographic change, and we give an overview of the patterns detected in African rain forest trees to discuss whether they support alternative hypotheses regarding the history of the African rain forest cover. The major genetic discontinuities in the region support the role of refugia during climatic oscillations, though not necessarily following the classically proposed scenarios. We identify in particular a genetic split between the North and the South of the Lower Guinean region. Finally we provide some perspectives for future study.     

Application of biomarkers for improving risk assessments of chemicals under the Water Framework Directive: a case study

To answer the requirement of the European Commission's Water Framework Directive (WFD) for biological-effects endpoints to classify the ecological health of aquatic ecosystems, we propose the biomarker response index (BRI). The BRI, based on a suite of biomarkers at different levels of biological response at the individual level, provides an integrated relative measure of the general health status of coastal invertebrates. Using the BRI, the health of mussels (Mytilus edulis) from 10 estuaries classified by the Environment Agency of England and Wales under the WFD was compared. Eight sites were healthier than predicted and two showed a similar health status to that of the predicted point-source pollution risk classification. Results indicate that the BRI offers a potential measure of organism health that can be used in monitoring under the WFD as an additional aid to reduce uncertainty in defining risk classification and to provide better evidence of existing impact.     

Estimating the settling velocity of bioclastic sediment using common grain‐size analysis techniques

Most techniques for estimating settling velocities of natural particles have been developed for siliciclastic sediments. Therefore, to understand how these techniques apply to bioclastic environments, measured settling velocities of bioclastic sedimentary deposits sampled from a nearshore fringing reef in Western Australia were compared with settling velocities calculated using results from several common grain‐size analysis techniques (sieve, laser diffraction and image analysis) and established models. The effects of sediment density and shape were also examined using a range of density values and three different models of settling velocity. Sediment density was found to have a significant effect on calculated settling velocity, causing a range in normalized root‐mean‐square error of up to 28%, depending upon settling velocity model and grain‐size method. Accounting for particle shape reduced errors in predicted settling velocity by 3% to 6% and removed any velocity‐dependent bias, which is particularly important for the fastest settling fractions. When shape was accounted for and measured density was used, normalized root‐mean‐square errors were 4%, 10% and 18% for laser diffraction, sieve and image analysis, respectively. The results of this study show that established models of settling velocity that account for particle shape can be used to estimate settling velocity of irregularly shaped, sand‐sized bioclastic sediments from sieve, laser diffraction, or image analysis‐derived measures of grain size with a limited amount of error. Collectively, these findings will allow for grain‐size data measured with different methods to be accurately converted to settling velocity for comparison. This will facilitate greater understanding of the hydraulic properties of bioclastic sediment which can help to increase our general knowledge of sediment dynamics in these environments.     

Facies of slurry-flow deposits, Britannia Formation (Lower Cretaceous), North Sea: implications for flow evolution and deposit geometry

ABSTRACT Mud‐rich sandstone beds in the Lower Cretaceous Britannia Formation, UK North Sea, were deposited by sediment flows transitional between debris flows and turbidity currents, termed slurry flows. Much of the mud in these flows was transported as sand‐ and silt‐sized grains that were approximately hydraulically equivalent to suspended quartz and feldspar. In the eastern Britannia Field, individual slurry beds are continuous over long distances, and abundant core makes it possible to document facies changes across the field. Most beds display regular areal grain‐size changes. In this study, fining trends, especially in the size of the largest grains, are used to estimate palaeoflow and palaeoslope directions. In the middle part of the Britannia Formation, stratigraphic zones 40 and 45, slurry flows moved from south‐west and south towards the north‐east and north. Most zone 45 beds lens out before reaching the northern edge of the field, apparently by wedging out against the northern basin slope. Zone 40 and 45 beds show downflow facies transitions from low‐mud‐content, dish‐structured and wispy‐laminated sandstone to high‐mud‐content banded units. In zone 50, at the top of the formation, flows moved from north to south or north‐west to south‐east, and their deposits show transitions from proximal mud‐rich banded and mixed slurried beds to more distal lower‐mud‐content banded and wispy‐laminated units. The contrasting facies trends in zones 40 and 45 and zone 50 may reflect differing grain‐size relationships between quartz and feldspar grains and mud particles in the depositing flows. In zones 40 and 45, quartz grains average 0·30–0·32 mm in diameter, ≈ 0·10 mm coarser than in zone 50. The medium‐grained quartz in zones 40 and 45 flows may have been slightly coarser than the associated mud grains, resulting in the preferential deposition of quartz in proximal areas and downslope enrichment of the flows in mud. In zone 50 flows, mud was probably slightly coarser than the associated fine‐grained quartz, resulting in early mud sedimentation and enrichment of the distal flows in fine‐grained quartz and feldspar. Mud particles in all flows may have had an effective grain size of ≈ 0·25 mm. Both mud content and suspended‐load fallout rate played key roles in the sedimentation of Britannia slurry flows and structuring of the resulting deposits. During deposition of zones 40 and 45, the area of the eastern Britannia Field in block 16/26 may have been a locally enclosed subbasin within which the depositing slurry flows were locally ponded. Slurry beds in the eastern Britannia Field are ‘lumpy’ sheet‐like bodies that show facies changes but little additional complexity. There is no thin‐bedded facies that might represent waning flows analogous to low‐density turbidity currents. The dominance of laminar, cohesion‐dominated shear layers during sedimentation prevented most bed erosion, and the deposystem lacked channel, levee and overbank facies that commonly make up turbidity current‐dominated systems. Britannia slurry flows, although turbulent and capable of size‐fractionating even fine‐grained sediments, left sand bodies with geometries and facies more like those deposited by poorly differentiated laminar debris flows.     

A Compilation of Silicon,Rare Earth Element and Twenty‐One other Trace Element Concentrations in the Natural River Water Reference Material SLRS‐5 (NRC‐CNRC)

The natural river water certified reference material SLRS‐5 (NRC‐CNRC) was routinely analysed in this study for major and trace elements by ten French laboratories. Most of the measurements were made using ICP‐MS. Because no certified values are assigned by NRC‐CNRC for silicon and 35 trace element concentrations (rare earth elements, Ag, B, Bi, Cs, Ga, Ge, Li, Nb, P, Rb, Rh, Re, S, Sc, Sn, Th, Ti, Tl, W, Y and Zr), or for isotopic ratios, we provide a compilation of the concentrations and related uncertainties obtained by the participating laboratories. Strontium isotopic ratios are also given.     

Transient climate changes in a perturbed parameter ensemble of emissions-driven earth system model simulations

We describe results from a 57-member ensemble of transient climate change simulations, featuring simultaneous perturbations to 54 parameters in the atmosphere, ocean, sulphur cycle and terrestrial ecosystem components of an earth system model (ESM). These emissions-driven simulations are compared against the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble of physical climate system models, used extensively to inform previous assessments of regional climate change, and also against emissions-driven simulations from ESMs contributed to the CMIP5 archive. Members of our earth system perturbed parameter ensemble (ESPPE) are competitive with CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in their simulations of historical climate. In particular, they perform reasonably well in comparison with HadGEM2-ES, a more sophisticated and expensive earth system model contributed to CMIP5. The ESPPE therefore provides a computationally cost-effective tool to explore interactions between earth system processes. In response to a non-intervention emissions scenario, the ESPPE simulates distributions of future regional temperature change characterised by wide ranges, and warm shifts, compared to those of CMIP3 models. These differences partly reflect the uncertain influence of global carbon cycle feedbacks in the ESPPE. In addition, the regional effects of interactions between different earth system feedbacks, particularly involving physical and ecosystem processes, shift and widen the ESPPE spread in normalised patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change in many regions. Significant differences from CMIP3 also arise from the use of parametric perturbations (rather than a multimodel ensemble) to represent model uncertainties, and this is also the case when ESPPE results are compared against parallel emissions-driven simulations from CMIP5 ESMs. When driven by an aggressive mitigation scenario, the ESPPE and HadGEM2-ES reveal significant but uncertain impacts in limiting temperature increases during the second half of the twenty-first century. Emissions-driven simulations create scope for development of errors in properties that were previously prescribed in coupled ocean–atmosphere models, such as historical CO₂ concentrations and vegetation distributions. In this context, historical intra-ensemble variations in the airborne fraction of CO₂ emissions, and in summer soil moisture in northern hemisphere continental regions, are shown to be potentially useful constraints, subject to uncertainties in the relevant observations. Our results suggest that future climate-related risks can be assessed more comprehensively by updating projection methodologies to support formal combination of emissions-driven perturbed parameter and multi-model earth system model simulations with suitable observational constraints. This would provide scenarios underpinned by a more complete representation of the chain of uncertainties from anthropogenic emissions to future climate outcomes.     

A Common Reference Material for Cadmium Isotope Studies – NIST SRM 3108

Research into natural mass‐dependent stable isotope fractionation of cadmium has rapidly expanded in the past few years. Methodologies are diverse with MC‐ICP‐MS favoured by all but one laboratory, which uses thermal ionisation mass spectrometry (TIMS). To quantify the isotope fractionation and correct for instrumental mass bias, double‐spike techniques, sample‐calibrator bracketing or element doping has been used. However, easy comparison between data sets has been hampered by the multitude of in‐house Cd solutions used as zero‐delta reference in different laboratories. The lack of a suitable isotopic reference material for Cd is detrimental for progress in the long term. We have conducted a comprehensive round‐robin assay of NIST SRM 3108 and the Cd isotope offsets to commonly used in‐house reference materials. Here, we advocate NIST SRM 3108 both as an isotope standard and the isotopic reference point for Cd and encourage its use as ‘zero‐delta’ in future studies. The purity of NIST SRM 3108 was evaluated regarding isobaric and polyatomic molecular interferences, and the levels of Zn, Pd and Sn found were not significant. The isotope ratio ¹¹⁴Cd/¹¹⁰Cd for NIST SRM 3108 lies within ～ 10 ppm Da^?1 of best estimates for the Bulk Silicate Earth and is validated for all measurement technologies currently in use.