How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change?

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are regularly used to evaluate different policies of future emissions reductions. Since the global costs associated with these policies are immense, it is vital that the uncertainties in IAMs are quantified and understood. We first demonstrate the significant spread in the climate system and carbon cycle components of several contemporary IAMs. We then examine these components in more detail to understand the causes of differences, comparing the results with more complex climate models and earth system models (ESMs), where available. Our results show that in most cases the outcomes of IAMs are within the range of the outcomes of complex models, but differences are large enough to matter for policy advice. There are areas where IAMs would benefit from improvements (e.g. climate sensitivity, inertia in climate response, carbon cycle feedbacks). In some cases, additional climate model experiments are needed to be able to tune some of these improvements. This will require better communication between the IAM and ESM development communities.     

Backward modeling of the rifting kinematics in the Upper Rhine Graben: insights from an elastic-perfect contact law on the restoration of a multi-bloc domain

This paper addresses the problem of volume restoration for 3-D sedimentary basin kinematic deformation. The primary purpose is methodological and concerns the use of contact mechanics with the finite element method, in order to deform a geological multi-bloc domain. This approach is applied to backward model the later stage of rifting of a segment of the southern Upper Rhine Graben (France–Germany border). Preliminary results from our modeling demonstrate the ability of the method not only to handle complex geometries, but also to successfully perform retro-deformation of a complex geological domain. In addition, they provide or confirm crucial information on the rifting evolution and tectonic features of this segment of the Upper Rhine Graben, such as the distribution of deformation, the asymmetry of the graben and a significant left-lateral strike-slip component of displacement.     

A penalty finite difference model for Navier-Stokes flow problem in sedimentation basins

An explicit finite difference solution procedure for the 2D, unsteady, turbulent and incompressible Navier-Stokes flow problem is developed. The innovative feature of the numerical model is the use of a penalty function technique. To illustrate the effectiveness of the model, two numerically predicted flow patterns for laboratory size sedimentation tanks are compared to actual experimental results. The predicted flow pattern shows a satisfactory match with experimental data.     

Surveillance for previously unmonitored organic contaminants in the San Francisco Estuary

The San Francisco Estuary Regional Monitoring Program initiated surveillance monitoring to identify previously unmonitored synthetic organic contaminants in the San Francisco Estuary. Organic extracts of water samples were analyzed using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry in full scan mode. The major contaminant classes identified in the samples were fire retardants, pesticides, personal care product ingredients, and plasticizers. Evidence from the literature suggests that some of these contaminants can persist in the environment, induce toxicity, and accumulate in marine biota and in higher food chain consumers. The major sources of these contaminants into the marine environment are the discharge of municipal and industrial wastewater effluents, urban stormwater, and agricultural runoff. As a proactive effort, it is suggested that surveillance studies be used routinely in monitoring programs to identify and prevent potential problem contaminants from harming the marine environment.     

Vulnerability and its discontents: the past,present, and future of climate change vulnerability research

The agri-food sector must adapt to changes in climate variability, while also helping to mitigate climate change. Measures termed ‘triple-win’ mitigate and adapt to climate change, while also improving soil health, thereby increasing yields. These measures might appear to be the easiest to implement, but in practice, barriers prevent full realisation. This study aims to move beyond previous research efforts that identify and categorise barriers by (i) revealing hidden barriers, (ii) understanding the interactions between barriers and (iii) exploring ways to address barriers. A case study focusing on crop rotation as a triple-win strategy in Ukraine demonstrates how a participant-driven iterative research approach can achieve these objectives. During semi-structured interviews with farmers and stakeholders, crop rotation emerged as an area of considerable dissensus with stakeholders commonly citing the greedy behaviour of producers as the problem. Further discussion indicated that the political economy of Ukraine caused financial constraints for producers and Q methodology allowed for additional clarity on the opposing views of crop rotation. Three factors emerged: producer insecurity, national insecurity and business insecurity. These three perspectives reveal contrasting priorities with producer insecurity and business insecurity concerned with the conditions under which producers must operate, while national insecurity has a focus on improving agricultural production to benefit the nation. Consensus statements across all factors could provide first steps to addressing barriers and an opportunity to open discussions amongst stakeholders. Finally, barriers arising from political processes demonstrate that climate policy needs to be integrated with other sector-specific policy decisions.     

Stable carbon isotope variations in northwest Europe during the last glacial–interglacial transition

Stable carbon isotope data that span part of the last glacial–interglacial transition (ca. 14-9 ka ¹⁴C BP; ca. 15–11 ka cal. BP), and which derive from organ-specific plant macrofossils recovered from two lake sediment profiles in the UK and one in Norway, are compared. The recorded temporal variations show similar trends, which, over a millennial time-scale appear to parallel the main drift in δ¹⁸O as determined for the GRIP ice-core. It is postulated that some smaller scale variations in the δ¹³C profiles may reflect the shorter term oscillations in δ¹⁸O values evident in the GRIP record, although this is less certain. Overall, however, the results suggest that stable carbon isotope measurements based on organ-specific terrestrial plant macrofossils may provide (i) a means for establishing correlations between terrestrial successions and (ii) additional paleoenvironmental information, as the apparent ‘shadowing’ of the GRIP record indicates a common forcing mechanism for both Greenland δ¹⁸O and northwest European δ¹³C variations. From the evidence available we suggest that the recorded δ¹³C variations reflect fluctuations in air temperature and/or changes in water vapour pressure in the atmosphere. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.