Implications of delayed actions in addressing carbon dioxide emission reduction in the context of geo-engineering

Carbon dioxide emissions need to be reduced well below current emissions if atmospheric concentrations are to be stabilised at a level likely to avoid dangerous climate change. We investigate how delays in reducing CO₂ emissions affect stabilisation scenarios leading to overshooting of a target concentration pathway. We show that if geo-engineering alone is used to compensate for the delay in reducing CO₂ emissions, such an option needs to be sustained for centuries even though the period of overshooting emissions may only last for a few decades. If geo-engineering is used for a shorter period, it has to be associated with emission reductions significantly larger than those required to stabilise CO₂ without overshooting the target. In the presence of a strong climate–carbon cycle feedback the required emission reductions are even more drastic.     

Thresholds for irreversible decline of the Greenland ice sheet

The Greenland ice sheet will decline in volume in a warmer climate. If a sufficiently warm climate is maintained for a few thousand years, the ice sheet will be completely melted. This raises the question of whether the decline would be reversible: would the ice sheet regrow if the climate cooled down? To address this question, we conduct a number of experiments using a climate model and a high-resolution ice-sheet model. The experiments are initialised with ice sheet states obtained from various points during its decline as simulated in a high-CO₂ scenario, and they are then forced with a climate simulated for pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentrations, to determine the possible trajectories of subsequent ice sheet evolution. These trajectories are not the reverse of the trajectory during decline. They converge on three different steady states. The original ice-sheet volume can be regained only if the volume has not fallen below a threshold of irreversibility, which lies between 80 and 90% of the original value. Depending on the degree of warming and the sensitivity of the climate and the ice-sheet, this point of no return could be reached within a few hundred years, sooner than CO₂ and global climate could revert to a pre-industrial state, and in that case global sea level rise of at least 1.3 m would be irreversible. An even larger irreversible change to sea level rise of 5 m may occur if ice sheet volume drops below half of its current size. The set of steady states depends on the CO₂ concentration. Since we expect the results to be quantitatively affected by resolution and other aspects of model formulation, we would encourage similar investigations with other models.     

Deep groundwater flow and geochemical processes in limestone aquifers: evidence from thermal waters in Derbyshire, England, UK

Thermal waters potentially provide information on geochemical processes acting deep within aquifers. New isotopic data on groundwater sulphate, inorganic carbon and strontium in thermal and non-thermal waters of a major limestone aquifer system in Derbyshire, England, UK, are used to constrain sulphate sources and groundwater evolution. Shallow groundwaters gain sulphate from oxidation of sulphide minerals and have relatively ¹³C-depleted dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). Thermal waters have relatively high Sr/Ca and more ¹³C-enriched DIC as a result of increased water–rock interaction. In other respects, the thermal waters define two distinct groups. Thermal waters rising at Buxton have higher Mg, Mn and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and lower Ca and SO₄, indicating flow from deep sandstone aquifers via a high permeability pathway in the limestone. By contrast, Matlock-type waters (97% of the thermal flux) have elevated sulphate concentrations derived from interaction with buried evaporites, with no chemical evidence for flow below the limestone. About 5% of the limestone area's groundwater flows to the Matlock group springs via deep regional flow and the remainder flows via local shallow paths to many non-thermal springs. Gypsum dissolution has produced significant tertiary porosity and tertiary permeability in the carbonate aquifer and this is an essential precursor to the development of karstic drainage.

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Resumen Las aguas termales potencialmente proporcionan información sobre procesos geoquímicos que actúan a profundidad en acuíferos. Nuevos datos isotópicos de sulfatos, carbón inorgánico y estroncio en aguas termales y no-termales de un acuífero importante de caliza en Derbyshire, Inglaterra se utilizan para delinear las fuentes de sulfato y la evolución de aguas subterráneas.Las aguas subterráneas no muy profundas adquieren sulfato a través de la oxidación de minerales de sulfuro y poseen carbón inorgánico disuelto (DIC) relativamente deplatado de ¹³C. Las aguas termales muestran un ratio Sr/Ca relativamente alto y poseen (DIC) más enriquecido en¹³C, como resultado de la mayor interacción de roca-agua. En otros aspectos, los aguas termales definen dos grupos distintivos. Las aguas termales que ascienden en Buxton tienen mas Mg, Mn y ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr y menos Ca and SO₄, indicando flujo de acuíferos de areniscas profundas por un sendero de alta permeabilidad en la caliza.En contraste el tipo de agua - Matlock (97% del flujo termal) posee altas concentraciones de sulfato, derivado por interacción con evaporitas enterradas, sin evidencia química de flujo debajo de la caliza. Aproximadamente 5% del agua del área de la caliza se fluye al grupo de manantiales de Matlock a través de un flujo regional profundo y el resto fluye por senderos locales poco profundos a muchos de los manantiales no-termales. La disolución de yeso ha producido porosidad terciaria importante así como permeabilidad en el acuífero de carbonato y este es un precursor esencial del desarrollo de drenaje kárstico.

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Résumé Les eaux thermales peuvent apporter des informations sur les processus géochimiques dans les aquifères profonds. De nouvelles données isotopiques sur les sulfates présents dans les eaux souterraines, le carbone inorganique et le strontium dans les eaux thermales et non thermales d'un système aquifère calcaire majeur dans le Derbyshire, Angleterre, Royaume Uni, sont utilisées pour comprendre les sources de sulfates et l'évolution des eaux souterraines. Les eaux souterraines phréatique s'enrichissent en sulfate via l'oxydation des minéraux sulfatés et ont un Carbone Inorganique Dissous (DIC) relativement appauvri en¹³C. Les eaux thermales ont un rapport Sr/Ca relativement plus élevé et un DIC plus enrichi en¹³C, du fait de l'interaction accrue des eaux avec les roches. En d'autres mots, les eaux thermales définissent deux groupes distincts. Les eaux thermales remontant à Buxton ont un Mg, un Mn et un rapport ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr plus hauts, mais un Ca et SO₄ plus faible, indiquant un écoulement à travers les zones perméables des aquifers gréseux. Par contraste, les eaux du type de Matlock (97% du flux thermique), possèdent des concentrations élevées en sulfates, provenant de l'interaction des eaux avec les évaporites enfouies, tandis qu'il n'existe aucune évidence chimique d'un écoulement sous les calcaires. Sur environ 5% de la surface des calcaires, les eaux souterraines alimentent des sources non-thermales. La dissolution du Gypse a produit une porosité tertiaire significative et une perméabilité dans les aquifères calcaires, et ceci est un précurseur essentiel au développement du drainage karstique.

     

Reconstructing high-magnitude/low-frequency landslide events based on soil redistribution modelling and a Late-Holocene sediment record from New Zealand

A sediment record is used, in combination with shallow landslide soil redistribution and sediment-yield modelling, to reconstruct the incidence of high-magnitude/low-frequency landslide events in the upper part of a catchment and the history of a wetland in the lower part. Eleven sediment cores were obtained from a dune-impounded wetland at Te Henga, west Auckland, northern New Zealand. Sediment stratigraphy and chronology were interpreted by radiocarbon dating, foraminiferal analysis, and provisional tephrochronology. Gradual impoundment of the wetland began c. 6000 cal yr BP, coinciding with the start of a gentle sea-level fall, but complete damming and initial sedimentation did not begin until c. 1000 cal yr BP. After damming, four well-defined sediment pulses occurred and these are preserved in the form of distinct clay layers in most of the sediment cores. For interpreting the sediment pulses, a physically based landslide model was used to determine spatially distributed relative landslide hazard, applicable at the catchment scale. An empirical landslide-soil redistribution component was added and proved able to determine the volumes and spatial pattern of eroded and deposited soil material, sediment delivery ratio and the impact on total catchment sediment yield. Sediment volumes were calculated from the wetland cores and corresponding landslide scenarios are defined through back-analysis of modelled sediment yield output. In general, at least four major high-magnitude landslide events, both natural and intensified by forest clearance activities, occurred in the catchment upstream of Te Henga Wetland during the last c. 1000 years. The spatial distribution of modelled critical rainfall values for the catchment can be interpreted as an expression of shallow landslide hazard. The magnitude of the sediment pulses represented in the wetland can be back-calculated to critical rainfall thresholds representing a shallow landslide model scenario.     

The Origins and Consequences of democratic citizens' Policy Agendas: A Study of Popular Concern about Global Warming

This article proposes and tests a model of the causes and consequences of Americans’ judgments of the national seriousness of global warming. The model proposes that seriousness judgments about global warming are a function of beliefs about the existence of global warming, attitudes toward it, the certainty with which these beliefs and attitudes are held, and beliefs about human responsibility for causing global warming and people’s ability to remedy it. The model also proposes that beliefs about whether global warming is a problem are a function of relevant personal experiences (with the weather) and messages from informants (in this case, scientists), that attitudes toward global warming are a function of particular perceived consequences of global warming, and that certainty about these attitudes and beliefs is a function of knowledge and prior thought. Data from two representative sample surveys offer support for all of these propositions, document effects of national seriousness judgments on support for ameliorative efforts generally and specific ameliorative policies, and thereby point to psychological mechanisms that may be responsible for institutional and elite impact on the public’s assessments of national problem importance and on public policy preferences.     

The Weichselian Late-glacial in southwestern Europe (Iberian Peninsula,Pyrenees, Massif Central,northern Apennines)

This paper presents a summary of Late-glacial environmental changes in southwestern Europe (lberian Peninsula, Pyrenees, Massif Central and the northern Apennines). The emphasis is on palaeoclimatic interpretations inferred from key sites in the region from which the most detailed records are available and which have been radiocarbon dated. The earliest evidence for climatic improvement following the end of the last glacial stage is dated to ca. 15 ka BP and is found at a few sites only. By 13 ka BP, a more widespread and marked climatic improvement is evident, although it is difficult to be precise in the timing and magnitude of the event. There are significant variations in detail between the Late-glacial records, but evidence for a significant cooling correlated with the Younger Dryas event is widespread throughout the region. Just two sites in the region provide evidence for an earlier, less emphatic phase of climatic cooling, which is tentatively equated with the ‘Older Dryas’ of continental northern Europe. Dry conditions appear to have predominated throughout the region in the later part of the Younger Dryas and the early Holocene.     

Glacier response to climatic change during the Loch Lomond Stadial and early Flandrian: Geomorphological and palynological evidence from the Isle of Skye,Scotland

The deglaciation of Skye at the close of the Loch Lomond Stadial is assessed on the basis of detailed geomorphological mapping and pollen-stratigraphic correlations. It is concluded that deglaciation proceeded in two distinct stages. The first was marked by numerous glacier stillstands and readvances, while uninterrupted retreat and local glacier stagnation occurred during the second and final stage. The pollen evidence indicates that the first stage was well advanced before the marked thermal improvement at the start of the Flandrian, and it is inferred that initial glacier retreat occurred in response to a decline in precipitation in the later part of the Loch Lomond Stadial. The first stage of glacier retreat continued into the early Flandrian, during which climatic amelioration was interrupted briefly. Final deglaciation appears to have occurred rapidly in response to sustained temperature increases. The collective evidence also indicates spatial variations in the timing of deglaciation, which appear to reflect differences in glacier morphology.     

Oxygen isotope geochemistry of cherts from the Onverwacht Group (3.4 billion years), Transvaal,South Africa,with implications for secular variations in the isotopic composition of cherts

δ¹⁸O values for 87 chert samples from the 3.4-b.y.-old Onverwacht Group, South Africa, range from +9.4 to +22.1‰. δ-values for cherts representing early silicified carbonates and evaporites, and possible primary precipitates range from +16 to +22‰ and are distinctly richer in¹⁸O than silicified volcaniclastic debris and cherts of problematical origin. The lower δ-values for the latter two chert types are caused by isotopic impurities such as sericite and feldspar, and/or late silicification at elevated temperature during burial. Cherts with δ-values below +16‰ are thus not likely to yield geochemical data relevant to earth surface conditions.Fine-grained chert is less than 0.7‰ depleted in¹⁸O relative to coexisting coarse drusy quartz. Because coarse quartz preserves its isotopic composition with time, the maximum amount of post-depositional lowering of the δ-values of cherts by long-term isotopic exchange with meteoric groundwaters does not exceed 0.7‰ in 3.4 b.y. In response to metamorphism the δ-values of Onverwacht cherts appear to remain unchanged or to have increased by as much as 4‰. Neither metamorphism nor long-term isotopic exchange with groundwaters can explain why Onverwacht cherts are depleted in¹⁸O relative to their Phanerozoic counterparts.Meteoric waters with a δ¹⁸O range of at least 3‰ appear to have been involved in Onverwacht chert diagenesis. δ-values for possible primary cherts or cherts representing silicified carbonates and evaporites are compatible with the depositional and diagenetic environments deduced from field and petrographic evidence. Onverwacht cherts appear to have formed with δ-values at least 8‰ lower than Phanerozoic cherts.The new Onverwacht data combined with all published oxygen isotope data for cherts suggest a secular trend similar to that initially suggested by Perry (1967) in which younger cherts are progressively enriched in¹⁸O. However, Precambrian cherts appear to be richer in¹⁸O than Perry's original samples and can be reasonably interpreted in terms of declining climatic temperatures from ～70°C at 3.4 b.y. to present-day values, as initially suggested by Knauth and Epstein (1976). This surface temperature history is compatible with existing geological, geochemical, and paleontological evidence.     

A tritium-exchange method for obsidian hydration shell measurement

A new radiochemical method for measuring the amount of water in the hydrated layer on the surface of obsidians exchanges tritiated water with the water in the layer (20 μl of 5 Ci ml^?1 at 90°C for 10 days) and then back-exchanges it (in 150 ml of water at 35°C for ～ 200 hr.). The activity of the back-exchange water (F) is monitored by liquid scintillation counting of aliquots extracted at known time intervals (t). The activity so measured is then related to the thickness of the hydration rim. A sheet diffusion model shows that the thickness of the hydration shell (l) is inversely proportional to the slope of the F vs.$\text{t}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>1</mtext><mtext>2</mtext>}}$ plot. Comparison of l-values so obtained between obsidians, whose age (x) is inferred from archaeological occupation layers containing radiocarbon-dated wood and charcoal, suggests a relationship between l and x. Implications for New Zealand prehistory are briefly considered. The technique, which is non-destructive, appears particularly applicable to young glasses where the development of hydrated layers may be inadequate for accurate optical measurement.