The benefits of quantifying climate model uncertainty in climate change impacts assessment: an example with heat-related mortality change estimates

The majority of climate change impacts assessments account for climate change uncertainty by adopting the scenario-based approach. This typically involves assessing the impacts for a small number of emissions scenarios but neglecting the role of climate model physics uncertainty. Perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) climate simulations offer a unique opportunity to explore this uncertainty. Furthermore, PPEs mean it is now possible to make risk-based impacts estimates because they allow for a range of estimates to be presented to decision-makers, which spans the range of climate model physics uncertainty inherent from a given climate model and emissions scenario, due to uncertainty associated with the understanding of physical processes in the climate model. This is generally not possible with the scenario-based approach. Here, we present the first application of a PPE to estimate the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. By using the estimated impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in six cities, we demonstrate the benefits of quantifying climate model physics uncertainty in climate change impacts assessment over the more common scenario-based approach. We also show that the impacts are more sensitive to climate model physics uncertainty than they are to emissions scenario uncertainty, and least sensitive to whether the climate change projections are from a global climate model or a regional climate model. The results demonstrate the importance of presenting model uncertainties in climate change impacts assessments if the impacts are to be placed within a climate risk management framework.     

A step-response approach for predicting and understanding non-linear precipitation changes

Future changes in precipitation represent one of the most important and uncertain possible effects of future climate change. We demonstrate a new approach based on idealised CO₂ step-change general circulation model (GCM) experiments, and test it using the HadCM3 GCM. The approach has two purposes: to help understand GCM projections, and to build and test a fast simple model for precipitation projections under a wide range of forcing scenarios. Overall, we find that the CO₂ step experiments contain much information that is relevant to transient projections, but that is more easily extracted due to the idealised experimental design. We find that the temporary acceleration of global-mean precipitation in this GCM following CO₂ ramp-down cannot be fully explained simply using linear responses to CO₂ and temperature. A more complete explanation can be achieved with an additional term representing interaction between CO₂ and temperature effects. Energy budget analysis of this term is dominated by clear-sky outgoing long-wave radiation (CSOLR) and sensible heating, but cloud and short-wave terms also contribute. The dominant CSOLR interaction is attributable to increased CO₂ raising the mean emission level to colder altitudes, which reduces the rate of increase of OLR with warming. This behaviour can be reproduced by our simple model. On regional scales, we compare our approach with linear ‘pattern-scaling’ (scaling regional responses by global-mean temperature change). In regions where our model predicts linear change, pattern-scaling works equally well. In some regions, however, substantial deviations from linear scaling with global-mean temperature are found, and our simple model provides more accurate projections. The idealised experiments reveal a complex pattern of non-linear behaviour. There are likely to be a range of controlling physical mechanisms, different from those dominating the global-mean response, requiring focussed investigation for individual regions, and in other GCMs.     

The demise of Arctic sea ice during stabilisation at high greenhouse gas concentrations

A climate model experiment was conducted using the HadCM3 climate model and a scenario in which the atmospheric CO₂ concentration was increased over 70 years from pre-industrial concentrations to 4 times this level and then stabilised for more than a 1,000 years. During the period of stabilisation the global atmospheric surface temperatures continued to rise as the deep oceans adjusted towards a new equilibrium. However, even after 1,000 years this new equilibrium had not been reached. During the first 600 years, Arctic and Antarctic winter sea ice thickness and area covered declined with a significant impact on the global radiation budget. After this period the area of the Arctic covered by sea ice entered a 150 years period during which time it underwent a series of oscillations. Following the oscillation the centre of the Arctic basin became ice free throughout the year. A sensitivity experiment demonstrates that although the sea ice extent can be greatly reduced through the artificial heating of the mixed layer, prior to the onset of the oscillatory phase the ice recovers over 15 years. Understanding the causes of this oscillatory phase may elucidate the mechanisms of variability in the Arctic in the present climate and in future policy relevant scenarios. We have investigated the atmospheric and oceanic forcing on the ice during the oscillatory phase, and find that the behaviour is linked to a redistribution of Arctic Ocean heat stores.     

High-resolution analysis of submarine lobes deposits: Seismic-scale outcrops of the Lauzanier area (SE Alps, France)

The Lauzanier area represents the northernmost extension of the Annot Sandstone series and contains deposits between 650 and 900 m-thick. This basin was active from upper Bartonian or lower Priabonian to early Rupelian. It is composed of two superposed units separated by a major unconformity. The sediment supply is due to channelled flows coming from the south. Flow processes include mass flow to turbidity currents. The size of the particles and the absence of fine-grained sediment suggest a transport over a short distance. The Lower Unit is made of coarse-grained tabular beds interpreted as non-channelled lobe deposits. The Upper Unit is made of massive conglomerates interpreted as the channelled part of lobes. These lobe deposits settle in a tectonically confined basin according to topographic compensation that occurs from bed scale to unit scale. The abrupt progradation between the lower and the upper unit seems related to a major tectonic uplift in the area. This uplift is also suggested by a change in the petrographic nature of the source and an abrupt coarsening of the transported clasts.This field example allows providing high resolution analysis for depositional sedimentary sequences of terminal lobe deposits in a coarse-grained turbidite system. The outcrop analysis shows the lateral evolution of deposits and the system progradation allows a longitudinal analysis of facies evolution by superposing on the same outcrops the channelled lobe system and the non-channelled lobe system. These results of high-resolution outcrop analysis can be extrapolated to results obtained on sedimentary lobes in recent deep-sea turbidite system that are either restricted to cores, or with a lesser resolution (seismic).     

Stream discharge and water quality data for East Fork Poplar Creek beginning 2012

This data note describes 15-min discharge and in situ water quality data at two locations along East Fork Poplar Creek in east Tennessee, USA. Data records include temperature, gauge height, water surface elevation above mean sea level, and volumetric discharge. Water quality measurements include temperature, specific conductance, pH, dissolved oxygen (percent saturation and concentration), turbidity, and less extensive fDOM data at one site. The data records begin in 2012 at one site and 2015 at the second site; monitoring at both sites is ongoing (as of 2021). The goal of this data collection is to improve understanding of watershed functions, hydrologic dynamics, and material flux. The data will contribute to site conceptual and numerical models, exposure and risk evaluation, remediation selection and design, and performance monitoring. The data are publicly available and can be accessed via unique url or DOI.     

Practical aspects of frequency-domain identification of dynamic models of marine structures from hydrodynamic data

The motion response of marine structures in waves can be studied using finite-dimensional linear-time-invariant approximating models. These models, obtained using system identification with data computed by hydrodynamic codes, find application in offshore training simulators, hardware-in-the-loop simulators for positioning control testing, and also in initial designs of wave-energy conversion devices. Different proposals have appeared in the literature to address the identification problem in both time and frequency domains, and recent work has highlighted the superiority of the frequency-domain methods. This paper summarises practical frequency-domain estimation algorithms that use constraints on model structure and parameters to refine the search of approximating parametric models. Practical issues associated with the identification are discussed, including the influence of radiation model accuracy in force-to-motion models, which are usually the ultimate modelling objective. The illustration examples in the paper are obtained using a freely available MATLAB toolbox developed by the authors, which implements the estimation algorithms described.     

The 2011 expedition to the El'gygytgyn impact structure,Northeast Russia: Toward a new geological map for the crater area

El'gygytgyn is a 3.6 Ma, 18 km diameter, impact crater formed in an approximately 88 Ma old volcanic target in Northeast Siberia. The structure has been the subject of a recent ICDP drilling project. In parallel to those efforts, a Russian‐German expedition was undertaken in summer 2011 to investigate the permafrost soil, lake terraces, and the volcanic rocks of the southern and eastern crater rim. This provided the unique opportunity for mapping and sampling of the volcanic target rocks around a large part of this complex impact structure. Samples from 43 outcrops were collected and analyzed petrographically and geochemically. The results were combined with earlier mapping outcomes to create a new geological map of this impact structure and its immediate environs, at the scale of 1:50,000. Compositions of our rock suites are compared with the lithologies of the 2009 ICDP drill core. The ignimbrite described as lower bedrock in the ICDP drill core shows petrographically and chemically strong similarities to the rhyolitic and rhyodacitic ignimbrites observed on surface. The suevite sequence exposed in the ICDP drill core is a mixture of all observed target rocks at their respective proportions in the area. In contrast to previous studies, the calculated average target composition of El'gygytgyn takes the contribution of the basic target rocks into consideration: mafic and intermediate rocks approximately 7.5%, and felsic rocks approximately 92.5%.     

Composite suspended sediment particles and flocculation in glacial meltwaters: preliminary evidence from Alpine and Himalayan basins

Research over the last decade has shown that the suspended sediment loads of many rivers are dominated by composite particles. These particles are also known as aggregates or flocs, and are commonly made up of constituent mineral particles, which evidence a wide range of grain sizes, and organic matter. The resulting in situ or effective particle size characteristics of fluvial suspended sediment exert a major control on all processes of entrainment, transport and deposition. The significance of composite suspended sediment particles in glacial meltwater streams has, however, not been established. Existing data on the particle size characteristics of suspended sediment in glacial meltwaters relate to the dispersed mineral fraction (absolute particle size), which, for certain size fractions, may bear little relationship to the effective or in situ distribution. Existing understanding of composite particle formation within freshwater environments would suggest that in‐stream flocculation processes do not take place in glacial meltwater systems because of the absence of organic binding agents. However, we report preliminary scanning electron microscopy data for one Alpine and two Himalayan glaciers that show composite particles are present in the suspended sediment load of the meltwater system. The genesis and structure of these composite particles and their constituent grain size characteristics are discussed. We present evidence for the existence of both aggregates, or composite particles whose features are largely inherited from source materials, and flocs, which represent composite particles produced by in‐stream flocculation processes. In the absence of organic materials, the latter may result solely from electrochemical flocculation in the meltwater sediment system. This type of floc formation has not been reported previously in the freshwater fluvial environment. Further work is needed to test the wider significance of these data and to investigate the effective particle size characteristics of suspended sediment associated with high concentration outburst events. Such events make a major contribution to suspended sediment fluxes in meltwater streams and may provide conditions that are conducive to composite particle formation by flocculation. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ARCADE: Absolute radiometer for cosmology, astrophysics, and diffuse emission

The absolute radiometer for cosmology, astrophysics, and diffuse emission (ARCADE) is a balloon-borne instrument designed to measure the temperature of the cosmic microwave background at centimeter wavelengths. ARCADE searches for deviations from a blackbody spectrum resulting from energy releases in the early universe. Long-wavelength distortions in the CMB spectrum are expected in all viable cosmological models. Detecting these distortions or showing that they do not exist is an important step for understanding the early universe. We describe the ARCADE instrument design, current status, and future plans.