The role of site effects in the comparison between code provisions and the near field strong motion of the Emilia 2012 earthquakes

A damaging seismic sequence hit a wide area mainly located in the Emilia-Romagna region (Northern Italy) during 2012 with several events of local magnitude \(\hbox {M}_\mathrm{l} \ge 5\) , among which the \(\hbox {M}_\mathrm{l}\) 5.9 May 20 and the \(\hbox {M}_\mathrm{l}\) 5.8 May 29 were the main events. Thanks to the presence of a permanent accelerometric station very close to the epicentre and to the temporary installations performed in the aftermath of the first shock, a large number of strong motion recordings are available, on the basis of which, we compared the recorded signals with the values provided by the current Italian seismic regulations, and we observed several differences with respect to horizontal components when the simplified approach for site conditions (based on Vs30 classes) is used. On the contrary, when using the more accurate approach based on the local seismic response, we generally obtain a much better agreement, at least in the frequency range corresponding to a quarter wavelength comparable with the depth of the available subsoil data. Some unresolved questions still remain, such as the low frequency behaviour ( \(<\) 1 Hz) that could be due either to complex propagation at depth larger than the one presently investigated or to near source effects, and the behaviour of vertical spectra whose recorded/code difference is too large to be explained with the information currently available.     

Catchment response to lava damming: integrating field observation,geochronology and landscape evolution modelling

Combining field reconstruction and landscape evolution modelling can be useful to investigate the relative role of different drivers on catchment response. The Geren Catchment (~45 km²) in western Turkey is suitable for such a study, as it has been influenced by uplift, climate change and lava damming. Four Middle Pleistocene lava flows (⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar‐ dated from 310 to 175 ka) filled and dammed the Gediz River at the Gediz–Geren confluence, resulting in base‐level fluctuations of the otherwise uplift‐driven incising river. Field reconstruction and luminescence dating suggest fluvial terraces in the Geren Catchment are capped by Middle Pleistocene aggradational fills. This showed that incision of the Geren trunk stream has been delayed until the end of MIS 5. Subsequently, the catchment has responded to base‐level lowering since MIS 4 by 30 m of stepped net incision. Field reconstruction left us with uncertainty on the main drivers of terrace formation. Therefore, we used landscape evolution modelling to investigate catchment response to three scenarios of base‐level change: (i) uplift with climate change (rainfall and vegetation based on arboreal pollen); (ii) uplift, climate change and short‐lived damming events; (iii) uplift, climate and long‐lived damming events. Outputs were evaluated for erosion–aggradation evolution in trunk streams at two different distances from the catchment outlet. Climate influences erosion–aggradation activity in the catchment, although internal feedbacks influence timing and magnitude. Furthermore, lava damming events partly control if and where these climate‐driven aggradations occur. Damming thus leaves a legacy on current landscape evolution. Catchment response to long‐duration damming events corresponds best with field reconstruction and dating. The combination of climate and base level explains a significant part of the landscape evolution history of the Geren Catchment. By combining model results with fieldwork, additional conclusions on landscape evolution could be drawn. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Resilience to change in two coastal communities: Using the maximum dexterity fleet

Using whole-ecosystem dynamic simulation models fitted to local data, two coastal communities are described (temperate, northern British Columbia, Canada; tropical, Raja Ampat, Indonesia) where relatively poor fishers’ livelihoods are threatened by climate change and overfishing. A novel theoretical minimum bycatch scenario, the ‘maximum dexterity fleet’, is combined with a search algorithm specifying optimal fisheries to achieve economic and biodiversity goals. Potential gains made by approaching an optimal fleet configuration prove robust against increased risks from climate variability. Although fish, gear and way of life differ greatly, in both communities it is suggested that dexterity (adroitness in adapting fishing gear) could lead to improved benefits from fishing.     

Scenarios for Community-based Approaches to Biodiversity Conservation: a case study from the Wet Tropics,Queensland, Australia

Natural resource management approaches that deliver biodiversity conservation remain elusive, with evidence of a persistent implementation gap between biodiversity science and conservation projects. Scenarios have been identified as potentially useful in addressing the complex issues underlying this implementation gap, but have been infrequently applied to biodiversity conservation. Our paper reports on action co-research to develop, apply and assess the efficacy of scenarios within a community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) approach to biodiversity conservation at Mission Beach, a key site within the globally significant Wet Tropics bioregion. We focused on the capacity of scenarios to address the issues of contested interests and uncertainty, aiming specifically to engage the community to build a cohesive vision. The scenarios' headline messages included a projected substantial loss of habitat in coastal vegetation communities that are highly valued by all stakeholders. Our assessment identified that the use of scenarios fulfilled the intended aims, resulting in a vision for biodiversity conservation that has substantial community support. Three factors contributed to this efficacy of the scenarios: (1) the focus on threat; (2) biodiversity science integration; and (3) simplicity in presentation. Further investigation of the potential of scenarios as tools to overcome the implementation gap in biodiversity conservation is recommended.     

Identifying irregularly shaped crime hot-spots using a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm

Spatial cluster detection techniques are widely used in criminology, geography, epidemiology, and other fields. In particular, spatial scan statistics are popular and efficient techniques for detecting areas of elevated crime or disease events. The majority of spatial scan approaches attempt to delineate geographic zones by evaluating the significance of clusters using likelihood ratio statistics tested with the Poisson distribution. While this can be effective, many scan statistics give preference to circular clusters, diminishing their ability to identify elongated and/or irregular shaped clusters. Although adjusting the shape of the scan window can mitigate some of these problems, both the significance of irregular clusters and their spatial structure must be accounted for in a meaningful way. This paper utilizes a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm to find clusters with maximum significance while quantitatively tracking their geographic structure. Crime data for the city of Cincinnati are utilized to demonstrate the advantages of the new approach and highlight its benefits versus more traditional scan statistics.