Automated calibration of advanced soil constitutive models. Part II: hypoplastic clay and modified Cam-Clay

This paper introduces an automated deterministic method for the calibration of the Modified Cam-Clay and hypoplastic clay model. The calibration is structured in a hierarchical order established based on the apriori sensitivity study performed. The proposed method favours the clear physical meaning of the model parameters to a complete optimization of the objective error function. The method requires only basic laboratory experiments and it is currently implemented in the free-to-use online application called ExCalibre.

     

Dynamics of carbon and CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> removals by Brazilian forest plantations during 1990–2016

Background

We analyzed the dynamics of carbon (C) stocks and CO₂ removals by Brazilian forest plantations over the period 1990–2016. Data on the extent of forests compiled from various sources were used in the calculations. Productivities were simulated using species-specific growth and yield simulators for the main trees species planted in the country. Biomass expansion factors, root-to-shoot ratios, wood densities, and carbon fractions compiled from literature were applied. C stocks in necromass (deadwood and litter) and harvested wood products (HWP) were also included in the calculations.

Results

Plantation forests stocked 231 Mt C in 1990 increasing to 612 Mt C in 2016 due to an increase in plantation area and higher productivity of the stands during the 26-year period. Eucalyptus contributed 58% of the C stock in 1990 and 71% in 2016 due to a remarkable increase in plantation area and productivity. Pinus reduced its proportion of the carbon storage due to its low growth in area, while the other species shared less than 6% of the C stocks during the period of study. Aboveground biomass, belowground biomass and necromass shared 71, 12, and 5% of the total C stocked in plantations in 2016, respectively. HWP stocked 76 Mt C in the period, which represents 12% of the total C stocked. Carbon dioxide removals by Brazilian forest plantations during the 26-year period totaled 1669 Gt CO_2-e.

Conclusions

The carbon dioxide removed by Brazilian forest plantations over the 26 years represent almost the totality of the country´s emissions from the waste sector within the same period, or from the agriculture, forestry and other land use sector in 2016. We concluded that forest plantations play an important role in mitigating GHG (greenhouse gases) emissions in Brazil. This study is helpful to improve national reporting on plantation forests and their GHG sequestration potential, and to achieve Brazil’s Nationally Determined Contribution and the Paris Agreement.

     

The Lawn Hill annulus: An Ordovician meteorite impact into water‐saturated dolomite

The Lawn Hill Impact Structure (LHIS) is located 250 km N of Mt Isa in NW Queensland, Australia, and is marked by a highly deformed dolomite annulus with an outer diameter of ~18 km, overlying low metamorphic grade siltstone, sandstone, and shale, along the NE margin of the Georgina Basin. This study provides detailed field observations from sections of the Lawn Hill annulus and adjacent areas that demonstrate a clear link between the deformation of the dolomite and the Lawn Hill impact. ⁴⁰Ar‐³⁹Ar dating of impact‐related melt particles provides a time of impact in the Ordovician (472 ± 8 Ma) when the Georgina Basin was an active depocenter. The timing and stratigraphic thickness of the dolomite sequence in the annulus suggest that there was possibly up to 300 m of additional sedimentary rocks on top of the currently exposed Thorntonia Limestone at the time of impact. The exposed annulus is remarkably well preserved, with preservation attributed to postimpact sedimentation. The LHIS has an atypical crater morphology with no central uplift. The heterogeneous target materials at Lawn Hill were probably low‐strength, porous, and water‐saturated, with all three properties affecting the crater morphology. The water‐saturated nature of the carbonate unit at the time of impact is thought to have influenced the highly brecciated nature of the annulus, and restricted melt production. The impact timing raises the possibility that the Lawn Hill structure may be a member of a group of impacts resulting from an asteroid breakup that occurred in the mid‐Ordovician (470 ± 6 Ma).     

Impacts of sea level rise on future storm-induced coastal inundations over massachusetts coast

Natural Hazards - Hurricanes (tropical cyclones) and nor'easters (extratropical cyclones) are two major storm systems for flood risk over the Massachusetts coast. Severe coastal inundation...     

3-D geochemical interpolation guided by geophysical inversion models

3-D geochemical subsurface models, as constructed by spatial interpolation of drill-core assays, are valuable assets across multiple stages of the mineral industry's workflow.However, the accuracy of such models is limited by the spatial sparsity of the underlying drill-core, which samples only a small fraction of the subsurface.This limitation can be alleviated by integrating collocated 3-D models into the interpolation process, such as the 3-D rock property models produced by modern geophysical inversion procedures, provided that they are sufficiently resolved and correlated with the interpolation target.While standard machine learning algorithms are capable of predicting the target property given these data, incorporating spatial autocorrelation and anisotropy in these models is often not possible.We propose a Gaussian process regression model for 3-D geochemical interpolation, where custom kernels are introduced to integrate collocated 3-D rock property models while addressing the trade-off between the spatial proximity of drill-cores and the similarities in their collocated rock properties, as well as the relative degree to which each supporting 3-D model contributes to interpolation.The proposed model was evaluated for 3-D modelling of Mg content in the Kevitsa Ni-Cu-PGE deposit based on drill-core analyses and four 3-D geophysical inversion models.Incorporating the inversion models improved the regression model's likelihood(relative to a purely spatial Gaussian process regression model) when evaluated at held-out test holes, but only for moderate spatial scales(100 m).     

Spatial variability in surface sediment composition characterised by near-infrared (NIR) reflectance spectroscopy

Near-infrared (NIR) spectral data were obtained from 165 surface sediment samples from a northern Swedish humic, mesotrophic lake (0.5 km2). The NIR spectra, together with data on water depth and loss-on-ignition (LOI), allow an evaluation of the source of spatial variance in sediment characteristics. The results show that water depth and organic matter (LOI) account for 20 and 16%, respectively, of the variance in the NIR-absorbance data. More importantly, the spatial variance in the spectral data suggest that NIR analysis of lake sediments mainly reflect sediment properties that cannot simply be explained by depth or amount of organic matter. The influence of inlets and land-use (e.g. clear-cutting) on sediment characteristics was more pronounced in the spectral data than would be expected from the LOI data. This is explained by differences in the chemical composition of the organic matter, as revealed by NIR spectroscopy, rather than in the amount of organic matter or depth-related sedimentation properties (e.g. particle size or density). This initial attempt to characterise sediment properties using NIR suggests that NIR analysis might become a valuable complementary tool to traditional sediment characterisation.     

Measuring Accessibility with GIS-Tools: A Case Study of the Wild Coast of South Africa

Although most GIS-based planning support have the capacity to show the location and attributes of different places, very few GIS-based systems are able to describe adequately the degree of spatial interaction, or the geographic accessibility, between places. The Faculty of Geographical Sciences of the Utrecht University (The Netherlands) and the South African Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), are developing a methodology to address the problem of measuring accessibility by integrating specialised GIS software (FlowMap) that measures the geographic accessibility between locations within a spatial decision support system (AccessMap). The resulting GIS-tool is applied to the Wild Coast area in South Africa. In this region a lack of accessibility to market centres is perceived as one of the major constraints of economic development in the region.     

Assessing Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Species Important for Forestry in Vietnam

The likely effects on two tree species of a range of scenarios of climatic and atmospheric change expected by the year 2050 are investigated using a climatic mapping program, a simple simulation model and a process-based simulation model. Styrax tonkinensis is a native species for which relatively little information is available. Acacia mangium is an introduced species, which is important for pulp production in several other countries, and for which there is considerable information for growth and utilization. A climatic mapping program is used to show areas which may be suitable for these species under present and predicted conditions. Two simulation models are used to investigate likely effects on productivity of the two species for a range of climatic change scenarios for Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. The estimated changes in production are predicted to be relatively small, though uncertainities associated with the simulations are quite high. However, the models highlight areas where more data are needed and also suggest some key regions in Vietnam which would be worth monitoring to detect early signs of the effects of climatic and atmospheric change.