Walker circulation controls ENSO atmospheric feedbacks in uncoupled and coupled climate model simulations

Many climate models strongly underestimate the two most important atmospheric feedbacks operating in El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the positive (amplifying) zonal surface wind feedback and negative (damping) surface-heat flux feedback (hereafter ENSO atmospheric feedbacks, EAF). This hampers a realistic representation of ENSO dynamics in these models. Here we show that the atmospheric components of climate models participating in the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) when forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SST), already underestimate EAF on average by 23%, but less than their coupled counterparts (on average by 54%). There is a pronounced tendency of atmosphere models to simulate stronger EAF, when they exhibit a stronger mean deep convection and enhanced cloud cover over the western equatorial Pacific (WEP), indicative of a stronger rising branch of the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC). Further, differences in the mean deep convection over the WEP between the coupled and uncoupled models explain a large part of the differences in EAF, with the deep convection in the coupled models strongly depending on the equatorial Pacific SST bias. Experiments with a single atmosphere model support the relation between the equatorial Pacific atmospheric mean state, the SST bias and the EAF. An implemented cold SST bias in the observed SST forcing weakens deep convection and reduces cloud cover in the rising branch of the PWC, causing weaker EAF. A warm SST bias has the opposite effect. Our results elucidate how biases in the mean state of the PWC and equatorial SST hamper a realistic simulation of the EAF.     

Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector

We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971–2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6–35 % for 2011–2040, of 20–30 % for 2041–2070, and of 40–55 % for 2071–2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses.     

Long-term statistics of potentially hazardous sea states in the North Sea 1958–2014

Significant wave height and mean wave period are two of the most commonly used parameters to describe wave climate, wave climate variability, and their potential long-term changes. While these parameters are generally useful to characterize the distribution of waves within a given sea state, they provide less information about potentially high-risk situations. Over the recent years, a number of criteria were suggested that are considered to better characterize high-risk situations and which could bear a potential for the development of safety warning indices. Based on a multi-decadal high-resolution wind-wave hindcast, a climatology of such parameters is developed for the North Sea covering the years 1958–2014. More specifically, average conditions, inter-annual variability and long-term changes for unusually steep, rapidly developing and crossing sea states are considered. Generally, there are pronounced spatial variations in the frequency of such sea states, while over time, there is some seasonal and inter-annual variability but no substantial long-term trend could be identified.     

Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example

Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis. Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources – and different perceptions thereof – explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.     

Co-evolution of coarse grain structuring and bed roughness in response to episodic sediment supply in an experimental aggrading channel

We use flume experiments to better understand how gravel-bed channels maintain bed surface stability in response to pulses of sediment supply. Bed elevations and surface imagery at high spatial resolutions were used to quantify the co-evolution of surface grain-size distribution (GSD), bed roughness statistics, and bed surface structures (clusters, cells and transverse features). Using a new semi-automated method, we identified individual stone structures over a 2 m × 1 m area throughout the experiments. After an initial coarsening, surface GSD and armouring ratio remained nearly stable as sediment pulses caused net bed aggradation. In contrast, individual grain structures continued to form, increase or decrease in size, and disappear throughout the experiments. The response of the bed to sediment pulses depended on the history of surface roughness evolution and bed surface structure development, as these factors changed much more in response to supply perturbations earlier in the experiments compared to later, even as the bed continued to aggrade. We interpret that the dynamic production and destruction of bed surface structures can act as a ‘buffer’ to sediment supply pulses, maintaining a stable bed surface during aggradation with minimal change in grain size or armouring. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Backward snow depth reconstruction at high spatial resolution based on time‐lapse photography

We report a methodology for reconstructing the daily snow depth distribution at high spatial resolution in a small Pyrenean catchment using time‐lapse photographs and snow depletion rates derived from an on‐site measuring meteorological station. The results were compared with the observed snow depth distribution, determined on a number of separate occasions using a terrestrial laser scanner (TLS). The time‐lapse photographs were projected onto a digital elevation model of the study site, and converted into snow presence/absence information. The melt‐out date (MOD; first occurrence of melt out after peak snow accumulation) was obtained from the projected photograph series. Commencing the backward reconstruction for each grid cell at the MOD, the method uses simulated snow depth depletion rates using a temperature index approach, which are extrapolated to the grid cells of the domain to arrive at the snow distribution of the previous day. Two variants of the reconstruction techniques were applied (1) using a spatially constant degree day factor (DDF) for calculating the daily expected snow depth depletion rate, and (2) allowing a spatially distributed DDF calculated from two consecutive TLS acquisitions compared to the snow depth depletion rate observed at the meteorological station. Validation revealed that both methods performed well (average R² = 0.68; standard RMSE = 0.58), with better results obtained from the spatially distributed approach. Nevertheless, the spatially corrected DDF reconstruction, which requires TLS data, suggests that the constant DDF approach is an efficient, and for most applications sufficiently accurate and easily reproducible method. The results highlight the usefulness of time‐lapse photography for not only determining the snow covered area, but also for estimating the spatial distribution of snow depth. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integrated geophysical and geological methods to investigate the inner and outer structures of the Quaternary Mýtina maar (W-Bohemia,Czech Republic)

The Mýtina maar is the first known Quaternary maar in the Bohemian Massif. Based on the results of Mrlina et al. (J Volcanol Geother Res 182:97–112, 2009), a multiparametric geophysical (electrical resistivity tomography, gravimetry, magnetometry, seismics) and geological/petrochemical research study had been carried out. The interpretation of the data has provided new information about the inner structure of the volcanic complex: (1) specification of the depth of post-volcanic sedimentary fill (up to ~100 m) and (2) magnetic and resistivity signs of one (or two) hidden volcanic structures interpreted as intrusions or remains of a scoria cone. The findings at the outer structure of the maar incorporate the (1) evidence of circular fracture zones outside the maar, (2) detection and distribution of volcanic ejecta and tephra-fall deposits at the surface, and (3) indications from electrical resistivity tomography and gravity data in the area between the Mýtina maar and ?elezná h?rka scoria cone, interpreted as a palaeovalley, filled by volcaniclastic rocks, and aligned along the strike line (NW–SE) of the Tachov fault zone. These findings are valuable contributions to extend the knowledge about structure of maar volcanoes in general. Because of ongoing active magmatic processes in the north-east part of the Cheb Basin (ca. 15–30 km north of the investigation area), the Mýtina maar-diatreme volcano and surroundings is a suitable key area for research directed to reconstruction of the palaeovolcanic evolution and assessment of possible future hazard potential in the Bohemian Massif.