Surface water input from snowmelt and rain throughfall in western juniper: potential impacts of climate change and shifts in semi‐arid vegetation

In the western USA, shifts from snow to rain precipitation regimes and increases in western juniper cover in shrub‐dominated landscapes can alter surface water input via changes in snowmelt and throughfall. To better understand how shifts in both precipitation and semi‐arid vegetation cover alter above‐ground hydrological processes, we assessed how rain interception differs between snow and rain surface water input; how western juniper alters snowpack dynamics; and how these above‐ground processes differ across western juniper, mountain big sagebrush and low sagebrush plant communities. We collected continuous surface water input with four large lysimeters, interspace and below‐canopy snow depth data and conducted periodic snow surveys for two consecutive water years (2013 and 2014). The ratio of interspace to below‐canopy surface water input was greater for snow relative to rain events, averaging 79.4% and 54.8%, respectively. The greater surface water input ratio for snow is in part due to increased deposition of redistributed snow under the canopy. We simulated above‐ground energy and water fluxes in western juniper, low sagebrush and mountain big sagebrush for two 8‐year periods under current and projected mid‐21st century warmer temperatures with the Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model. Juniper compared with low and mountain sagebrush reduced surface water input by an average of 138 mm or 24% of the total site water budget. Conversely, warming temperatures reduced surface water input by only an average of 14 mm across the three vegetation types. The future (warmer) simulations resulted in earlier snow disappearance and surface water input by 51 and 45 days, respectively, across juniper, low sagebrush and mountain sagebrush. Information from this study can help land managers in the sagebrush steppe understand how both shifts in climate and semi‐arid vegetation will alter fundamental hydrological processes. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Surface water–groundwater interaction at restored streams and associated reference reaches

Stream restoration goals include improving habitat and water quality through reconstruction of morphological features found at analogous, pristine stream reaches. Enhancing hyporheic exchange may facilitate achieving these goals. Although hyporheic exchange at restoration sites has been explored in a few previous studies, comparative studies of restored versus reference or control streams are largely absent. We hypothesized that restoration cross‐vanes enhance hyporheic exchange, resulting in biogeochemical alteration of stream water chemistry in the streambed. Two streams restored using cross‐vanes to control erosion and improve habitat were compared with their associated reference reaches, which provided the basis for the restoration design. Thirteen temperature profile rods with vertically stacked sensors were installed at each site for 2 weeks. Heat tracing was used to quantify vertical flux in the streambed from the diurnal temperature fluctuations in the subsurface. Stream water and bed pore waters from mini‐piezometers were analysed for ion and nutrient chemistry. In general, mean vertical flux rates through the streambed were small throughout reference sites (?0.3 to 0.3 m/day) and at most locations at restored sites. Immediately adjacent to cross‐vanes, vertical flux rates were larger (up to 3.5 m/day). Geochemistry of pore waters shows distinct differences in the sources for the reference and restored sites. Strong downwelling zones adjacent to cross‐vanes showed high dissolved oxygen (10.75 mg/l) and geochemistry in the streambed similar to surface water. Reference sites had lower dissolved oxygen in the streambed (0.66–5.14 mg/l), and geochemical patterns suggest a mixture of discharging groundwater and surface water in the hyporheic zone. Restored sites also clearly show sulfate and nitrate reduction occurring in the streambed, which is not observed at the reference sites. The stream restoration sites studied here enhance rapid hyporheic exchange, but upwelling of groundwater has a stronger influence on streambed geochemistry at reference sites. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying groundwater dependency of riparian surface hydrologic features using the exit gradient

Numerical groundwater flow models necessarily are limited to subsurface flow evaluation. It is of interest, however, to examine the possibility that, for unconfined aquifer systems, they could be used to proportionately measure the magnitude of seepage they estimate when these aquifers intersect the landscape surface. Our goal in this study was to determine the degree to which an unconfined groundwater model can estimate run‐off or seepage at the land surface during winter time wet season conditions, as well as in the dry season, when evapotranspiration is a major part of the water balance, using a lowland basin‐fill example study area in the Pacific Northwest. The exit gradient is a metric describing the potential for vertical seepage at the landscape surface. We investigated the spatial relationship of mapped surface features, such as wetlands, streams and ponds, to the model‐predicted mapped exit gradient. We found that areas mapped as wetlands had positive exit gradients. During the wet season, modelled exit gradients predicted seepage throughout extensive areas of the groundwater shed, extending far beyond mapped wetland areas (355% increase), associated with previously observed increases in nitrate‐nitrogen in streams in wet season. During the dry season, exit gradients spatially corresponded with wetland areas. The increase in in‐stream nitrogen corresponds with shorter residence times in carbon‐rich wetland zones because of the onset of saturation overland flow. We present results that suggest that the exit gradient could be a useful concept in examining the groundwater–surface water linkage that is often under represented physically in watershed flow models. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

A micromechanics model for molecular diffusion in materials with complex pore structure

Molecular diffusion in fully saturated porous materials is strongly influenced by the pore space, which, in general, is characterized by a complex topological structure. Hence, information on macroscopic diffusion properties requires up‐scaling of transport processes within nano‐pores and micro‐pores over several spatial scales. A new model in the framework of continuum micromechanics is proposed for predicting the effective molecular diffusivity in porous materials. Considering a representative volume element, characterizing a porous material without any information about the pore space microstructure complexity, the uniform flux is perturbed by recursively embedding shape information hierarchically in the form of the ESHELBY matrix‐inclusion morphology to obtain the effective diffusivity as a function of the recurrence level and the porosity. The model predicts a threshold value for the porosity, below which no molecular diffusion can occur because of the presence of isolated pore clusters that are not connected and unavailable for transport. The maximum porosity, below which no molecular transport is possible, is predicted as one‐third for spherical inclusions. The model allows for extensions to more complex morphologies of the inclusions. We also identify, that the effects of the micro‐structure on molecular transport are characterized by porosity dependent long‐range and short‐range interactions. The developed framework is extended to incorporate realistic pore size distributions across several spatial scales by means of a distribution function within the hierarchical homogenization scheme. Available experimental results assert the model predictions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Risk management tools for sustainable fisheries management under changing climate: a sea cucumber example

Sustainable fisheries management into the future will require both understanding of and adaptation to climate change. A risk management approach is appropriate due to uncertainty in climate projections and the responses of target species. Management strategy evaluation (MSE) can underpin and support effective risk management. Climate change impacts are likely to differ by species and spatially. We use a spatial MSE applied to a multi-species data-poor sea cucumber/béche-de-mer fishery to demonstrate the utility of MSE to test the performance of alternative harvest strategies in meeting fishery objectives; this includes the ability to manage through climate variability and change, and meeting management objectives pertaining to resource status and fishery economic performance. The impacts of fishing relative to the impacts of climate change are distinguished by comparing future projection distributions relative to equivalent no-fishing no-climate-change trials. The 8 modelled species exhibit different responses to environmental variability and have different economic value. Status quo management would result in half the species falling below target levels, moderate risks of overall and local depletion, and significant changes in species composition. The three simple strategies with no monitoring (spatial rotation, closed areas, multi-species composition) were all successful in reducing these risks, but with fairly substantial decreases in the average profit. Higher profits (for the same risk levels) could only be achieved with strategies that included monitoring and hence adaptive management. Spatial management approaches based on adaptive feedback performed best overall.     

Laterally‐propagating Rossby waves in the easterly acceleration phase of the quasi‐biennial oscillation

Abstract

It is shown that oscillating mean flow solutions exist in the one‐dimensional Holton‐Lindzen (1972) model in the presence of a single Kelvin wave, mean flow diffusion, and an easterly zonal force per unit mass that is constant in height and time except at those points in the time‐height cross‐section where the latitudinally‐integrated mean flow is less than some prescribed easterly value. The latter forcing is intended to crudely represent the absorption of quasi‐stationary planetary Rossby waves at the tropical zero‐wind line. Our results suggest an alternative, and somewhat simpler, possible interpretation of the quasi‐biennial mean zonal wind oscillation in the equatorial lower stratosphere.     

Abrupt CO2 experiments as tools for predicting and understanding CMIP5 representative concentration pathway projections

A fast simple climate modelling approach is developed for predicting and helping to understand general circulation model (GCM) simulations. We show that the simple model reproduces the GCM results accurately, for global mean surface air temperature change and global-mean heat uptake projections from 9 GCMs in the fifth coupled model inter-comparison project (CMIP5). This implies that understanding gained from idealised CO₂ step experiments is applicable to policy-relevant scenario projections. Our approach is conceptually simple. It works by using the climate response to a CO₂ step change taken directly from a GCM experiment. With radiative forcing from non-CO₂ constituents obtained by adapting the Forster and Taylor method, we use our method to estimate results for CMIP5 representative concentration pathway (RCP) experiments for cases not run by the GCMs. We estimate differences between pairs of RCPs rather than RCP anomalies relative to the pre-industrial state. This gives better results because it makes greater use of available GCM projections. The GCMs exhibit differences in radiative forcing, which we incorporate in the simple model. We analyse the thus-completed ensemble of RCP projections. The ensemble mean changes between 1986–2005 and 2080–2099 for global temperature (heat uptake) are, for RCP8.5: 3.8 K (2.3 × 10²⁴ J); for RCP6.0: 2.3 K (1.6 × 10²⁴ J); for RCP4.5: 2.0 K (1.6 × 10²⁴ J); for RCP2.6: 1.1 K (1.3 × 10²⁴ J). The relative spread (standard deviation/ensemble mean) for these scenarios is around 0.2 and 0.15 for temperature and heat uptake respectively. We quantify the relative effect of mitigation action, through reduced emissions, via the time-dependent ratios (change in RCPx)/(change in RCP8.5), using changes with respect to pre-industrial conditions. We find that the effects of mitigation on global-mean temperature change and heat uptake are very similar across these different GCMs.     

A sledge microtome for high resolution subsampling of freeze cores

We describe a sledge microtome designed for the high-resolution subsampling of freeze cores. This inexpensive freeze-core microtome is capable of producing precise subsamples at mm to sub-mm resolution without sediment loss and cross-contamination. Such a subsampling resolution permits recognition of sub-decadal to annual events even in systems with low sedimentation rates. The freeze-core microtome is particularly useful for obtaining high-resolution subsamples at the environmentally important sediment-water interface due to freeze corers being capable of capturing this boundary with minimal disturbance as compared to other coring methods.     

Radiocarbon and 230Th data reveal rapid redistribution and temporal changes in sediment focussing at a North Atlantic drift

In locations of rapid sediment accumulation receiving substantial amounts of laterally transported material the timescales of transport and accurate quantification of the transported material are at the focus of intense research. Here we present radiocarbon data obtained on co-occurring planktic foraminifera, marine haptophyte biomarkers (alkenones) and total organic carbon (TOC) coupled with excess Thorium-230 (²³⁰Th_xs) measurements on four sediment cores retrieved in 1649–2879 m water depth from two such high accumulation drift deposits in the Northeast Atlantic, Björn and Gardar Drifts. While ²³⁰Th_xs inventories imply strong sediment focussing, no age offsets are observed between planktic foraminifera and alkenones, suggesting that redistribution of sediments is rapid and occurs soon after formation of marine organic matter, or that transported material contains negligible amounts of alkenones. An isotopic mass balance calculation based on radiocarbon concentrations of co-occurring sediment components leads us to estimate that transported sediment components contain up to 12% of fossil organic matter that is free of or very poor in alkenones, but nevertheless appears to consist of a mixture of fresh and eroded fossil material. Considering all available constraints to characterize transported material, our results show that although focussing factors calculated from bulk sediment ²³⁰Th_xs inventories may allow useful approximations of bulk redeposition, they do not provide a unique estimate of the amount of each laterally transported sediment component. Furthermore, our findings provide evidence that the occurrence of lateral sediment redistribution alone does not always hinder the use of multiple proxies but that individual sediment fractions are affected to variable extents by sediment focussing.     

Are there basic physical constraints on future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide?

Global Circulation Models (GCMs) provide projections for future climate warming using a wide variety of highly sophisticated anthropogenic CO₂ emissions scenarios as input, each based on the evolution of four emissions ??drivers??: population p, standard of living g, energy productivity (or efficiency) f and energy carbonization c (IPCC WG III 2007). The range of scenarios considered is extremely broad, however, and this is a primary source of forecast uncertainty (Stott and Kettleborough, Nature 416:723?C725, 2002). Here, it is shown both theoretically and observationally how the evolution of the human system can be considered from a surprisingly simple thermodynamic perspective in which it is unnecessary to explicitly model two of the emissions drivers: population and standard of living. Specifically, the human system grows through a self-perpetuating feedback loop in which the consumption rate of primary energy resources stays tied to the historical accumulation of global economic production??or p×g??through a time-independent factor of 9.7±0.3 mW per inflation-adjusted 1990 US dollar. This important constraint, and the fact that f and c have historically varied rather slowly, points towards substantially narrowed visions of future emissions scenarios for implementation in GCMs.