Are We There Yet? A Roadmap to Understanding National Park Service Rulemaking

The preproposal stage of the rulemaking process is notoriously understudied, but enormously important in determining regulatory outputs. Recently, Rinfret (2011c Rinfret , S. R. 2011c . Frames of influence: U.S. environmental rulemaking case studies . Rev. Policy Res. 28 ( 3 ): 231 – 245 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) analyzed the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) rulemaking process and developed a frame analysis model to interpret stakeholder influence during the preproposal stage. Rinfret argues that stakeholders use three frames to influence agency rulemaking, including an expertise, a fiscal feasibility, and an information frame. This article tests this model to determine whether it is applicable to other federal agencies such as the National Park Service (NPS). Through an analysis of stakeholder framing within the 2012 NPS Yellowstone Winter Use Rule, this research confirms that Rinfret's model is indeed applicable to the NPS process. Therefore, this research suggests that this theoretical model examining stakeholder influence is applicable to other public land agencies, and arguably can be applied across the bureaucracy.     

Modeling and representation for earthquake emergency response knowledge: perspective for working with geo-ontology

Earthquake emergency response is one of the three earthquake disaster mitigation work systems in China, already achieving good results in some earthquake disaster mitigation situations. Earthquake emergency plans and emergency command systems are among the most important research and operations components of emergency response. These components commonly come with challenges, such as the pertinence of emergency commands and the operability of the countermeasures to be improved. The promise for solving this problem resides with applying knowledge that aids intelligence creation for decision-making. In this paper, we put forward a conceptual model of knowledge for earthquake disaster emergency response (EDER); compositions of EDER knowledge are introduced within architecture. A modeling method incorporating geo-ontology is used to build basic modeling primitives. Geo-ontology serves to represent geospatial characteristics of the EDER knowledge and addresses a need for semantic interoperability in the modeling process. A decision problem framework and a case study have been used as theoretical framework and an application test, respectively, to evaluate the EDER knowledge architecture and models. The EDER knowledge model provides a foundation for intelligent emergency response that helps solve knowledge problems to improve earthquake disaster response.     

The response of the South Asian Summer Monsoon circulation to intensified irrigation in global climate model simulations

Agricultural intensification in South Asia has resulted in the expansion and intensification of surface irrigation over the twentieth century. The resulting changes to the surface energy balance could affect the temperature contrasts between the South Asian land surface and the equatorial Indian Ocean, potentially altering the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) circulation. Prior studies have noted apparent declines in the monsoon intensity over the twentieth century and have focused on how altered surface energy balances impact the SASM rainfall distribution. Here, we use the coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R general circulation model to investigate the impact of intensifying irrigation on the large-scale SASM circulation over the twentieth century, including how the effect of irrigation compares to the impact of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. We force our simulations with time-varying, historical estimates of irrigation, both alone and with twentieth century GHGs and other forcings. In the irrigation only experiment, irrigation rates correlate strongly with lower and upper level temperature contrasts between the Indian sub-continent and the Indian Ocean (Pearson’s r = ?0.66 and r = ?0.46, respectively), important quantities that control the strength of the SASM circulation. When GHG forcing is included, these correlations strengthen: r = ?0.72 and r = ?0.47 for lower and upper level temperature contrasts, respectively. Under irrigated conditions, the mean SASM intensity in the model decreases only slightly and insignificantly. However, in the simulation with irrigation and GHG forcing, inter-annual variability of the SASM circulation decreases by ~40 %, consistent with trends in the reanalysis products. This suggests that the inclusion of irrigation may be necessary to accurately simulate the historical trends and variability of the SASM system over the last 50 years. These findings suggest that intensifying irrigation, in concert with increased GHG forcing, is capable of reducing the variability of the simulated SASM circulation and altering the regional moisture transport by limiting the surface warming and reducing land–sea temperature gradients.     

Identifying hot spots of security vulnerability associated with climate change in Africa

Given its high dependence on rainfed agriculture and its comparatively low adaptive capacity, Africa is frequently invoked as especially vulnerable to climate change. Within Africa, there is likely to be considerable variation in vulnerability to climate change both between and within countries. This paper seeks to advance the agenda of identifying the hot spots of what we term “climate security” vulnerability, areas where the confluence of vulnerabilities could put large numbers of people at risk of death from climate-related hazards. This article blends the expertise of social scientists and climate scientists. It builds on a model of composite vulnerability that incorporates four “baskets” or processes that are thought to contribute to vulnerability including: (1) physical exposure, (2) population density, (3) household and community resilience, and (4) governance and political violence. Whereas previous iterations of the model relied on historical physical exposure data of natural hazards, this paper uses results from regional model simulations of African climate in the late 20th century and mid-21st century to develop measures of extreme weather events—dry days, heat wave events, and heavy rainfall days—coupled with an indicator of low-lying coastal elevation. For the late 20th century, this mapping process reveals the most vulnerable areas are concentrated in Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Niger, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan, with pockets in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Guinea, Mauritania, and Sierra Leone. The mid 21st century projection shows more extensive vulnerability throughout the Sahel, including Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, northern Nigeria, Niger, and across Sudan.     

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability research

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.     

A portable extruder for accurate and precise high-resolution subsampling of unconsolidated sediment cores

Journal of Paleolimnology - We developed a portable extruder for precise and accurate high-resolution subsampling of unconsolidated sediment cores. This extruder is capable of producing subsamples...     

Variations in sediment sources and yields in the Finger Lakes and Catskills regions of New York

The proportional contributions of stream bank and surface sources to fine sediment loads in watersheds in New York State were quantified with uncertainty analysis. Eroding streamside glacial drift, including glaciolacustrine deposits, were examined to help explain variations in the proportional contributions made by bank erosion. Sediment sources were quantified by comparing concentrations of the bomb‐derived radionuclide ¹³⁷Cs in fluvial sediment with sediment from potential source areas such as agricultural soils, forest soils and stream banks. To compare sediment sources in streams containing abundant deposits of fine‐grained glacial drift with watersheds that lacked moderate or extensive streamside deposits, samples were taken from 15 watersheds in the region. The mean contribution of bank erosion to sediment loads in the six streams with glaciolacustrine deposits was 60% (range 46–76%). The proportional contribution of bank erosion was also important in one stream lacking glaciolacustrine deposits (57%) but was less important in the remainder, with contributions ranging from 0 to 46%. Data from this study on the varying contributions of bank erosion and data from past studies of sediment yield in 15 watersheds of New York State suggest that eroding streamside glacial deposits dominate sediment yield in many watersheds. In other watersheds, past impacts to streams, such as channelization, have also resulted in high levels of bank erosion. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seasonal rainfall–runoff relationships in a lowland forested watershed in the southeastern USA

Hydrological processes of lowland watersheds of the southern USA are not well understood compared to a hilly landscape due to their unique topography, soil compositions, and climate. This study describes the seasonal relationships between rainfall patterns and runoff (sum of storm flow and base flow) using 13 years (1964–1976) of rainfall and stream flow data for a low‐gradient, third‐order forested watershed. It was hypothesized that runoff–rainfall ratios (R/P) are smaller during the dry periods (summer and fall) and greater during the wet periods (winter and spring). We found a large seasonal variability in event R/P potentially due to differences in forest evapotranspiration that affected seasonal soil moisture conditions. Linear regression analysis results revealed a significant relationship between rainfall and runoff for wet (r² = 0·68; p < 0·01) and dry (r² = 0·19; p = 0·02) periods. Rainfall‐runoff relationships based on a 5‐day antecedent precipitation index (API) showed significant (r² = 0·39; p < 0·01) correspondence for wet but not (r² = 0·02; p = 0·56) for dry conditions. The same was true for rainfall‐runoff relationships based on 30‐day API (r² = 0·39; p < 0·01 for wet and r² = 0·00; p = 0·79 for dry). Stepwise regression analyses suggested that runoff was controlled mainly by rainfall amount and initial soil moisture conditions as represented by the initial flow rate of a storm event. Mean event R/P were higher for the wet period (R/P = 0·33), and the wet antecedent soil moisture condition based on 5‐day (R/P = 0·25) and 30‐day (R/P = 0·26) prior API than those for the dry period conditions. This study suggests that soil water status, i.e. antecedent soil moisture and groundwater table level, is important besides the rainfall to seasonal runoff generation in the coastal plain region with shallow soil argillic horizons. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spinel-bearing,Al-rich chondrules in two chondrite finds from Roosevelt County,New Mexico: Indicators of nebular and parent body processes

Abstract— Two rare, spinel-bearing, Al-rich chondrules have been identified in new chondrite finds from Roosevelt County, New Mexico—RC 071 (L4) and RC 072 (L5). These chondrules have unusual mineralogies, dominated by highly and asymmetrically zoned, Al-Cr-rich spinels. Two alternatives exist to explain the origin of this zoning—fractional crystallization or metamorphism. It appears that fractional crystallization formed the zoning of the trivalent cations (Al, Cr) and caused a localized depletion in chromites around the large Al-Cr-rich spinels. The origin of the zoning of the divalent cations (Fe, Mg, Zn) is less certain. Diffusive exchange and partitioning of Fe and Mg between olivine and spinel during parent body metamorphism can explain the asymmetric zoning of these elements. Unfortunately, appropriate studies of natural and experimental systems to evaluate the formation of zoning of the divalent cations by fractional crystallization have not yet been conducted. The bulk compositions of the chondrules suggest affinities with the Na-Al-Cr-rich chondrules, as would be expected from the abundance of Al-Cr-rich spinels. Melting of rare and unusual precursors produced the compositions of Na-Al-Cr-rich chondrules, possibly including a spinel-rich precursor enriched in Cr₂O₃ and ZnO. The two chondrules we studied have larger modal abundances of Al-Cr-rich spinels than reported in other Na-Al-Cr-rich chondrules of similar composition, and Al-rich chondrules even more enriched in spinel are reported in the literature. These differences indicate that factors other than bulk composition control the mineralogy of the chondrules. The most important of these factors are the temperature to which the molten chondrule was heated and the cooling rate during crystallization. These two chondrules cooled rapidly from near the liquidus, as indicated by the zoning, occurrence and sizes of spinels, radiating chondrule textures and localized chromite depletions. The range of mineralogies in other Al-rich chondrules of similar composition reflect a range of peak temperatures and cooling rates. We see no reason to believe that this range is fundamentally different from the range of thermal histories experienced by “normal” Fe-Mg-rich chondrules.     

Spectra of extremely reduced assemblages: Implications for Mercury

Abstract— We investigate the possibility that Mercury's crust is very reduced with FeO concentrations of less than ?0.1 wt%. We believe that such a surface could have a composition of enstatite, plagioclase, diopside, and sulfide, similar to the mineral assemblages found in aubritic meteorites. To test this hypothesis, we investigated the spectra of aubrites and their constituent minerals as analogs for the surface of Mercury. We found that some sulfides have distinctive absorption features in their spectra shortwards of ?0.6 μm that may be apparent in the spectrum of such an object. Determination of the surface composition of Mercury using orbital x‐ray spectroscopy should easily distinguish between a lunar highlands and enstatite basalt composition since these materials have significant differences in concentrations of Al, Mg, S, and Fe. The strongest argument against Mercury having an enstatite basalt composition is its extreme spectral redness. Significant reddening of the surface of an object (such as Mercury) is believed to require reduction of FeO to nanophase iron, thus requiring a few percent FeO in the material prior to alteration.