Locating regional seismic events with global optimization based on interval arithmetic

More than 1000 seismic events in northern Europe at distances of up to 400  km from the detecting network are located using an optimization method in which the global minimum of the traveltime function residuals is searched for using an Interval Arithmetic (IA) method. Epicentres are determined using P waves detected by the Finnish national seismic network: up to 15 stations were used in the analysis. The IA results coincide with locations provided by the University of Helsinki bulletins with a median location bias of 7.6  km.
  A second data set of 59 explosions in the Siilinjärvi mine in central Finland was examined in detail, because the locations of the explosions were known exactly. In this case, the median difference of IA locations was 3.8  km from the average location of mine explosions, while all 59 events were located within 9  km of the 'true' epicentres. The corresponding median error of the University of Helsinki locations was smaller (3.2  km), but some Helsinki locations were well over 10  km from the mine. The convergence towards the global optimum using interval arithmetic was fast when compared with the conventional least-squares approaches for epicentre determinations.     

Formation of Al-rich titanite (CaTiSiO4O–CaAlSiO4OH) reaction rims on ilmenite in metamorphic rocks as a function of fH2O and fO2

Reaction rims of titanite on ilmenite are described in samples from four terranes of amphibolite-facies metapelites and amphibolites namely the Tamil Nadu area, southern India; the Val Strona area of the Ivrea-Verbano Zone, northern Italy, the Bamble Sector, southern Norway, and the northwestern Austroalpine Ötztal Complex. The titanite rims, and hence the stability of titanite (CaTiSiO₄O) and Al–OH titanite, i.e. vuaganatite (hypothetical end-member CaAlSiO₄OH), are discussed in the light of fH₂O- and fO₂-buffered equilibria involving clinopyroxene, amphibole, biotite, ilmenite, magnetite, and quartz in the systems CaO–FeO/Fe₂O₃–TiO₂–SiO₂–H₂O–O₂ (CFTSH) and CaO–FeO/Fe₂O₃–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–H₂O–O₂ (CFASH) present in each of the examples. Textural evidence suggests that titanite reaction rims on ilmenite in rocks from Tamil Nadu, Val Strona, and the Bamble Sector originated most likely due to hydration reactions such as clinopyroxene + ilmenite + quartz + H₂O = amphibole + titanite and oxidation reactions such as amphibole + ilmenite + O₂ = titanite + magnetite + quartz + H₂O during amphibolite-facies metamorphism, or, as in the case of the Ötztal Complex, during a subsequent greenschist-facies overprint. Overstepping of these reactions requires fH₂O and fO₂ to be high for titanite formation, which is also in accordance with equilibria involving Al–OH titanite. This study shows that, in addition to P, T, bulk–rock composition and composition of the coexisting fluid, fO₂ and fH₂O also play an important role in the formation of Al-bearing titanite during amphibolite- and greenschist-facies metamorphism.     

Numerical modelling of bit–rock fracture mechanisms in percussive drilling with a continuum approach

This paper presents a numerical method for continuum modelling of the dynamic bit–rock interaction process in percussive drilling. The method includes a constitutive model based on a combination of the recent viscoplastic consistency model, the isotropic damage concept and a parabolic compression cap. The interaction between the drill bit and rock is modelled using contact mechanics by treating the bit as a rigid body. As the bit–rock interaction in percussive drilling is a transient event, the method is implemented in explicit dynamics FEM. The rock strength heterogeneity is characterized at the mesoscopic level statistically using the Weibull distribution. The bit–rock interaction is simulated under axisymmetric conditions using cylindrical and hemispherical buttons. The choice of the quite complex constitutive model accounting, e.g. for plastic compaction, viscoplastic shear and tensile failure along with induced damage and rate dependency is justified by numerical simulations. Moreover, the quasi‐static and dynamic cases are compared in plane strain simulations. Finally, some results clarifying the discrepancy of opinions found in the literature concerning the side (lateral) crack formation are obtained. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Damage–viscoplastic consistency model with a parabolic cap for rocks with brittle and ductile behavior under low‐velocity impact loading

This paper presents a damage–viscoplastic cap model for rocks with brittle and ductile behavior under low‐velocity impact loading, which occurs, e.g. in percussive drilling. The model is based on a combination of the recent viscoplastic consistency model by Wang and the isotropic damage concept. This approach does not suffer from ill posedness—caused by strain softening—of the underlying boundary/initial‐value problem since viscoplasticity provides a regularization under dynamic loading by introducing an internal length scale. The model uses the Drucker–Prager (DP) yield function with the modified Rankine criterion as a tension cut‐off and a parabolic cap surface as a compression cut‐off. The parabolic cap is smoothly fitted to the DP cone. The strain softening law in compression is calibrated with the degradation index concept of Fang and Harrison. Thereby, the model is able to capture the brittle‐to‐ductile transition and hardening behavior of geomaterials under highly confined compression, which is the prevailing stress state under a bit‐button in percussive drilling. Rock strength heterogeneity is characterized statistically at the structural level using the Weibull distribution. An explicit time integrator is chosen for solving the FE‐discretized equations of motion. The contact constraints due to the impact of an indenter are imposed with the forward increment Lagrange multiplier method that is compatible with explicit time integrators. The model is tested at the material point level with various uniaxial and triaxial tests. At the structural level confined compression, uniaxial tension tests and a rock sample under low‐velocity impact are simulated. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How to attribute market leakage to CDM projects

Abstract

Economic studies suggest that market leakage rates of greenhouse gas abatement can reach the two-digit percentage range. Although the Marrakesh Accords require Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects to account for leakage, most projects neglect market leakage. Insufficient leakage accounting is facilitated by a lack of applicable methods regarding the quantification and attribution of project-related leakage effects. This article proposes a method for attributing CDM-related market leakage effects to individual projects. To this purpose, alternative attribution methods are analysed. We find that project-specific approaches fail to take account of market leakage effects. Consequently, we propose to estimate aggregate market leakage effects and attribute them proportionally to individual projects. We suggest that predetermined commodity-specific leakage factors are applied by project developers to any emission reductions that are associated with a project's leakage-relevant demand or supply changes. This approach is conservative, equitable, incentive-compatible and applicable at manageable costs.     

An Analytical Model for the Two-Scalar Covariance Budget Inside a Uniform Dense Canopy

The two-scalar covariance budget is significant within the canopy sublayer (CSL) given its role in modelling scalar flux budgets using higher-order closure principles and in estimating the segregation ratio for chemically reactive species. Despite its importance, an explicit expression describing how the two-scalar covariance is modified by inhomogeneity in the flow statistics and in the vertical variation in scalar emission or uptake rates within the canopy volume remains elusive even for passive scalars. To progress on a narrower version of this problem, an analytical solution to the two-scalar covariance budget in the CSL is proposed for the most idealized flow conditions: a stationary and planar homogeneous flow inside a uniform and dense canopy with a constant leaf area density distribution. The foliage emission (or uptake) source strengths are assumed to vary exponentially with depth while the forest floor emission is represented as a scalar flux. The analytical solution is a superposition of a homogeneous part that describes how the two-scalar covariance at the canopy top is transported and dissipated within the canopy volume, and an inhomogeneous part governed by local production mechanisms of the two-scalar covariance. The homogeneous part is primarily described by the canopy adjustment length scale, and the attenuation coefficients of the turbulent kinetic energy and the mean velocity. Conditions for which the vertical variation of the two-scalar covariance is controlled by the rapid attenuation in the mean velocity and turbulent kinetic energy profiles, vis-à-vis the vertical variation of the scalar source strength, are explicitly established. This model also demonstrates how dissimilarity in the emissions from the ground, even for the extreme binary case with one scalar turned ‘on’ and the other scalar turned ‘off’, modifies the vertical variation of the two-scalar covariance within the CSL. To assess its applicability to field conditions, the analytical model predictions were compared with observations made at two different forest types—a sparse pine forest at the Hyytiälä SMEAR II-station (in Finland) and a dense alpine hardwood forest at Lavarone (in Italy). While the model assumptions do not represent the precise canopy morphology, attenuation properties of the turbulent kinetic energy and the mean velocity, observed mixing length, and scalar source attenuation properties for these two forest types, good agreement was found between measured and modelled two scalar covariances for multiple scalars and for the triple moments at the Hyytiälä site.     

Distribution of nitrate over sea-salt and soil derived particles — Implications from a field study

A method for determining the distribution of supermicrometer nitrate between size-segregated sea-salt and soil derived particles is presented. The analysis is based on field data from six measurements at a coastal site in southern Finland, and on a theoretical treatment taking into account the transfer of gaseous species onto particle surfaces and their subsequent reaction. Significant amounts of nitrate were found in both the particle types, with the fraction of nitrate associated with soil particles varying from 20–50% in the 1–2 m size to near 90% in particles larger than 10 m. Overall, the nitrate accumulation followed closely the relative abundances of these two particle types. Two overlapping modes in supermicron nitrate mass size distributions could be identified. The lower mode, associated with sea-salt, was located between the surface-area and volume distribution of sodium peaking at about 2–3 m of EAD. The upper mode peaked at 3–5 m and followed more closely the surface-area distribution of calcium in all samples. At our site, the accumulation of nitrate into both particle types was shown to be limited by an effective surface reaction rate rather than by gas-phase diffusion. This rate was estimated to be considerably larger for sea-salt particles. Strong evidence in support of the saturation of nitrate in sea-salt particles were obtained.     

Land use and land cover change in Arctic Russia: Ecological and social implications of industrial development

Sizable areas in northwestern arctic Russia have undergone fundamental change in recent decades as the exploration of vast hydrocarbon deposits has intensified. We undertook two case studies on the influence of oil and gas activities within neighbouring federal districts in the tundra zone. Employing a strongly interdisciplinary approach, we studied the ecological, spatial and social dimensions of the visible and perceived changes in land use and land cover. Our data are derived from field sampling, remote sensing and intensive participant observation with indigenous Nenets reindeer herders and non-indigenous workers. Important trends include the rapid expansion of infrastructure, a large influx of workers who compete for freshwater fish, and extensive transformation from shrub- to grass- and sedge-dominated tundra. The latter represents an alternative ecosystem state that is likely to persist indefinitely. On terrain disturbed by off-road vehicle traffic, reindeer pastures’ vegetation regenerates with fewer species among which grasses and sedges dominate, thus reducing biodiversity. To have maximum forage value such pastures must be accessible and free of trash, petro-chemicals and feral dogs. We found that a wide range of direct and indirect impacts, both ecological and social, accumulate in space and time such that the combined influence is effectively regional rather than local, depending in part on the placement of facilities. While incoming workers commonly commit poaching, they also serve as exchange partners, making barter for goods possible in remote locations. In general, the same positive and negative impacts of the presence of industry were mentioned in each study region. Even using very high-resolution remote sensing data (Quickbird-2) it is not possible to determine fully the amount of degraded territory in modern oil and gas fields. With regard to policy, both biophysical and social impacts could be substantially reduced if information flow between herders and workers were to be optimized.