Formation of intrathermocline eddies at ocean fronts by wind-driven destruction of potential vorticity

A mechanism for the generation of intrathermocline eddies (ITEs) at wind-forced fronts is examined using a high resolution numerical simulation. Favorable conditions for ITE formation result at fronts forced by “down-front” winds, i.e. winds blowing in the direction of the frontal jet. Down-front winds exert frictional forces that reduce the potential vorticity (PV) within the surface boundary in the frontal outcrop, providing a source for the low-PV water that is the materia prima of ITEs. Meandering of the front drives vertical motions that subduct the low-PV water into the pycnocline, pooling it into the coherent anticyclonic vortex of a submesoscale ITE. As the fluid is subducted along the outcropping frontal isopycnal, the low-PV water, which at the surface is associated with strongly baroclinic flow, re-expresses itself as water with nearly zero absolute vorticity. This generation of strong anticyclonic vorticity results from the tilting of the horizontal vorticity of the frontal jet, not from vortex squashing. During the formation of the ITE, high-PV water from the pycnocline is upwelled alongside the subducting low-PV surface water. The positive correlation between the ITE’s velocity and PV fields results in an upward, along-isopycnal eddy PV flux that scales with the surface frictional PV flux driven by the wind. The relationship between the eddy and wind-induced frictional PV flux is nonlocal in time, as the eddy PV flux persists long after the wind forcing is shut off. The ITE’s PV flux affects the large-scale flow by driving an eddy-induced transport or bolus velocity down the outcropping isopycnal layer with a magnitude that scales with the Ekman velocity.     

The Delphi technique and judgmental forecasting

The Delphi technique for judgmental forecasting by expert groups is described and the controversy surrounding its use is summarized. The technique clearly does not eliminate all unwanted psychological effects on group judgment. Furthermore, the design of most Delphi studies makes it impossible to separate the signal from the noise in expert judgment. A methodological standard for evaluating judgmental forecasts is proposed.     

An Intercomparison of Large-Eddy Simulations of the Stable Boundary Layer

Results are presented from the first intercomparison of large-eddy simulation (LES) models for the stable boundary layer (SBL), as part of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study initiative. A moderately stable case is used, based on Arctic observations. All models produce successful simulations, in as much as they generate resolved turbulence and reflect many of the results from local scaling theory and observations. Simulations performed at 1-m and 2-m resolution show only small changes in the mean profiles compared to coarser resolutions. Also, sensitivity to subgrid models for individual models highlights their importance in SBL simulation at moderate resolution (6.25 m). Stability functions are derived from the LES using typical mixing lengths used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models. The functions have smaller values than those used in NWP. There is also support for the use of K-profile similarity in parametrizations. Thus, the results provide improved understanding and motivate future developments of the parametrization of the SBL.     

Inertial instability of large Rossby number horizontal shear flows in a thin homogeneous layer

A horizontal shear flow having a Rossby number, Ro, greater than unity on a rotating plane can become unstable when its shear value is less than −f, the Coriolis frequency. In this paper, this instability is investigated for an O(10 km) submesoscale, sinusoidal shear flow in a thin homogeneous fluid layer as in an oceanic mixed layer or a shallow sea. The most unstable mode is shown by a linear analysis to occur in a narrow localized region centered around the maximum anticyclonic current shear. However, nonlinear numerical calculations show that the instability can grow to encompass both unstable and stable regions of the current. A consequence of this finite-amplitude evolution is the formation of surface convergence/shear fronts. The possibility that inertial instability mechanism is a source of some surface convergence/shear features seen in remote sensing images of the sea surface is discussed. A comparison is made with the shear-flow instability that can occur concurrently in a sinusoidal shear current, and inertial instability is shown to be the dominant instability mechanism in the immediate range above Ro=2.     

A Method for Estimating the Cost of CO2 Mitigation through Afforestation

The Kyoto Protocol allows Annex I countries to use afforestation (theconversion of non-forest landto forest) to meet emissions reduction targets. We present a new method forestimating the cost of CO₂mitigation through afforestation based on econometric models of land use. Landuse models are developed from dataon observed land allocation decisions and quantify the relationship betweenthe share of land in forest and the netreturns to forestry, among other land use determinants. The econometricapproach measures the actual responsesby landowners to observed changes in net returns, in contrast to earlierstudies in which landowner responses aredictated by the researcher. Models are estimated for Maine, South Carolina,and Wisconsin. The estimated modelsare used to simulate subsidies for afforestation, which imply increases inforest area and net reductions inatmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Average cost measures – totalsubsidies divided by total carbon sequestered –are derived for afforestation programs with and without timber harvesting. Theuse of econometric land use modelsin integrated assessments of climate change is explored. We model the effectson land use patterns and the costsof CO₂ mitigation of changes in the net returns to agricultureinduced by climate change.     

Extended regional climate model projections for Europe until the mid-twentyfirst century: combining ENSEMBLES and CMIP3

This study aims at sharpening the existing knowledge of expected seasonal mean climate change and its uncertainty over Europe for the two key climate variables air temperature and precipitation amount until the mid-twentyfirst century. For this purpose, we assess and compensate the global climate model (GCM) sampling bias of the ENSEMBLES regional climate model (RCM) projections by combining them with the full set of the CMIP3 GCM ensemble. We first apply a cross-validation in order to assess the skill of different statistical data reconstruction methods in reproducing ensemble mean and standard deviation. We then select the most appropriate reconstruction method in order to fill the missing values of the ENSEMBLES simulation matrix and further extend the matrix by all available CMIP3 GCM simulations forced by the A1B emission scenario. Cross-validation identifies a randomized scaling approach as superior in reconstructing the ensemble spread. Errors in ensemble mean and standard deviation are mostly less than 0.1 K and 1.0 % for air temperature and precipitation amount, respectively. Reconstruction of the missing values reveals that expected seasonal mean climate change of the ENSEMBLES RCM projections is not significantly biased and that the associated uncertainty is not underestimated due to sampling of only a few driving GCMs. In contrast, the spread of the extended simulation matrix is partly significantly lower, sharpening our knowledge about future climate change over Europe by reducing uncertainty in some regions. Furthermore, this study gives substantial weight to recent climate change impact studies based on the ENSEMBLES projections, since it confirms the robustness of the climate forcing of these studies concerning GCM sampling.     

Vertical and Horizontal Transport of Energy and Matter by Coherent Motions in a Tall Spruce Canopy

In the framework of the EGER (ExchanGE processes in mountainous Regions) project, the contribution of coherent structures to vertical and horizontal transports in a tall spruce canopy is investigated. The combination of measurements done in both the vertical and horizontal directions allows us to investigate coherent structures, their temporal scales, their role in flux transport, vertical coupling between the sub-canopy, canopy and air above the canopy, and horizontal coupling in the sub-canopy layer. The temporal scales of coherent structures detected with the horizontally distributed systems in the sub-canopy layer are larger than the temporal scales of coherent structures detected with the vertically distributed systems. The flux contribution of coherent structures to the momentum and sensible heat transport is found to be dominant in the canopy layer. Carbon dioxide and latent heat transport by coherent structures increase with height and reach a maximum at the canopy height. The flux contribution of the ejection decreases with increasing height and becomes dominant above the canopy level. The flux fraction transported during the sweep increases with height and becomes the dominant exchange process at the upper canopy level. The determined exchange regimes indicate consistent decoupling between the sub-canopy, canopy and air above the canopy during evening, nighttime and morning hours, whereas the coupled states and coupled by sweep states between layers are observed mostly during the daytime. Furthermore, the horizontal transport of sensible heat by coherent structures is investigated, and the heterogeneity of the contribution of coherent events to the flux transport is demonstrated. A scheme to determine the horizontal coupling by coherent structures in the sub-canopy layer is proposed, and it is shown that the sub-canopy layer is horizontally coupled mainly in the wind direction. The vertical coupling in most cases is observed together with streamwise horizontal coupling, whereas the cross-stream direction is decoupled.     

Turbulent fluxes from Helipod flights above quasi-homogeneous patches within the LITFASS area

Turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat were measured with the helicopter-borne turbulence probe Helipod over a heterogeneous landscape around the Meteorological Observatory Lindenberg during the STINHO-2 and LITFASS-2003 field experiments. Besides the determination of area-averaged heat fluxes, the analysis focused on different aspects of the response of the turbulent structure of the convective boundary layer (CBL) on the surface heterogeneity. A special flight pattern was designed to study flux profiles both over quasi-homogeneous sub-areas of the study region (representing the major land use types—forest, farmland, water) and over a typical mixture of the different surfaces. Significant differences were found between the heat fluxes over the individual surfaces along flight legs at about 80 m above ground level, in agreement with large-aperture scintillometer measurements. This flux separation was still present during some flights at levels near the middle of the CBL. Different scales for the blending height and horizontal heterogeneity were calculated, but none of them could be identified as a reliable indicator of the mixing state of the lower CBL. With the exception of the flights over water, the latent heat flux measurements generally showed a larger statistical error when compared with the sensible heat flux. Correlation coefficients a nd integral length scales were used to characterise the interplay between the vertical transport of sensible and latent heat, which was found to vary between ‘fairly correlated’ and ‘decoupled’, also depending on the soil moisture conditions.     

The eastward shift of the Walker Circulation in response to global warming and its relationship to ENSO variability

This study investigates the global warming response of the Walker Circulation and the other zonal circulation cells (represented by the zonal stream function), in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models. The changes in the mean state are presented as well as the changes in the modes of variability. The mean zonal circulation weakens in the multi model ensembles nearly everywhere along the equator under both the RCP4.5 and SRES A1B scenarios. Over the Pacific the Walker Circulation also shows a significant eastward shift. These changes in the mean circulation are very similar to the leading mode of interannual variability in the tropical zonal circulation cells, which is dominated by El Niño Southern Oscillation variability. During an El Niño event the circulation weakens and the rising branch over the Maritime Continent shifts to the east in comparison to neutral conditions (vice versa for a La Niña event). Two-thirds of the global warming forced trend of the Walker Circulation can be explained by a long-term trend in this interannual variability pattern, i.e. a shift towards more El Niño-like conditions in the multi-model mean under global warming. Further, interannual variability in the zonal circulation exhibits an asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña events. El Niño anomalies are located more to the east compared with La Niña anomalies. Consistent with this asymmetry we find a shift to the east of the dominant mode of variability of zonal stream function under global warming. All these results vary among the individual models, but the multi model ensembles of CMIP3 and CMIP5 show in nearly all aspects very similar results, which underline the robustness of these results. The observed data (ERA Interim reanalysis) from 1979 to 2012 shows a westward shift and strengthening of the Walker Circulation. This is opposite to what the results in the CMIP models reveal. However, 75 % of the trend of the Walker Circulation can again be explained by a shift of the dominant mode of variability, but here towards more La Niña-like conditions. Thus in both climate change projections and observations the long-term trends of the Walker Circulation seem to follow to a large part the pre-existing dominant mode of internal variability.     

High-resolution climate simulation of the last glacial maximum

The climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM) is simulated with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model, the NCAR CCM3 at spectral truncation of T170, corresponding to a grid cell size of roughly 75 km. The purpose of the study is to assess whether there are significant benefits from the higher resolution simulation compared to the lower resolution simulation associated with the role of topography. The LGM simulations were forced with modified CLIMAP sea ice distribution and sea surface temperatures (SST) reduced by 1°C, ice sheet topography, reduced CO₂, and 21,000 BP orbital parameters. The high-resolution model captures modern climate reasonably well, in particular the distribution of heavy precipitation in the tropical Pacific. For the ice age case, surface temperature simulated by the high-resolution model agrees better with those of proxy estimates than does the low-resolution model. Despite the fact that tropical SSTs were only 2.1°C less than the control run, there are many lowland tropical land areas 4–6°C colder than present. Comparison of T170 model results with the best constrained proxy temperature estimates (noble gas concentrations in groundwater) now yield no significant differences between model and observations. There are also significant upland temperature changes in the best resolved tropical mountain belt (the Andes). We provisionally attribute this result in part as resulting from decreased lateral mixing between ocean and land in a model with more model grid cells. A longstanding model-data discrepancy therefore appears to be resolved without invoking any unusual model physics. The response of the Asian summer monsoon can also be more clearly linked to local geography in the high-resolution model than in the low-resolution model; this distinction should enable more confident validation of climate proxy data with the high-resolution model. Elsewhere, an inferred salinity increase in the subtropical North Atlantic may have significant implications for ocean circulation changes during the LGM. A large part of the Amazon and Congo Basins are simulated to be substantially drier in the ice age—consistent with many (but not all) paleo data. These results suggest that there are considerable benefits derived from high-resolution model regarding regional climate responses, and that observationalists can now compare their results with models that resolve geography at a resolution comparable to that which the proxy data represent.