A perturbed parameter ensemble of HadGEM3-GC3.05 coupled model projections: part 1: selecting the parameter combinations

This is the first of two papers that describe the generation of a 25-member perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of high-resolution, global coupled simulations for the period 1900–2100, using CMIP5 historical and RCP8.5 emissions. Fifteen of these 25 coupled simulations now form a subset of the global projections provided for the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18). This first paper describes the selection of 25 variants (combinations of 47 parameters) using a set of cheap, coarser-resolution atmosphere-only simulations from a large sample of nearly 3000 variants. Retrospective 5-day weather forecasts run at climate resolution, and simulations of 2004–2009 with prescribed SST and sea ice are evaluated to filter out poor performance. We opted for a single design choice and sensitivity tests were done after the PPE was generated to demonstrate the effect of design choices on the filtering. Given our choice, only 38 of the parameter combinations were found to have acceptable performance at this stage. Idealised atmosphere-only simulations were then used to select the subset of 25 members that were as diverse as possible in terms of their CO₂ and aerosol forcing, and their response to warmer SSTs. Using our parallel set of atmosphere-only and coupled PPEs (the latter from paper 2), we show that local biases in the atmosphere-only experiments are generally informative about the biases in the coupled PPE. Biases in radiative fluxes and cloud amounts are strongly informative for most regions, whereas this is only true for a smaller fraction of the globe for precipitation and dynamical variables. Therefore, the cheap experiments are an affordable way to search for promising parameter combinations but have limitations.

     

Non-axial planar cleavage and Caledonian sinistral transpression in eastern Ireland

Transected F₁ fold structures in eastern Ireland are associated with subhorizontal stretching in the S₁, cleavage whereas axial planar cleavage contains a vertical elongation direction. This suggests that the non-axial planar cleavage was influenced by a distributed strike-slip ductile shear. A major NE-SW trending F₁ syncline is described in which the minor F₁ folds show systematic variations in cleavage transection parameters. On the steep limb of the major syncline the cleavage transects the minor F₁ folds in a consistently clockwise sense, whereas on the normal limb anticlockwise transected folds are seen. Axial planar cleavage occurs at the core of the major syncline. Fold profile analysis indicates that the buckling of the layers began before the initiation of the cleavage. Open, parallel folds at the major synclinal hinge zone are progressively ‘flattened’ on the steep limb towards a major D₁ sinistral transcurrent fault. The angular transection, A, attains a maximum of 15° clockwise which diminishes to <5° at higher strains adjacent to the major fault. Incremental fibre growth in pressure shadows show a two-stage tectonic strain superposition of vertical pure shear followed by sinistral transcurrent simple shear during the development of the clockwise transecting cleavage. Anticlockwise transected folds were influenced by local dextral strike-slip on the southern margins of a rigid terrane. As a regional feature, the clockwise transection is explained by a sinistral transpressive deformation of end-Silurian age.     

Virtual MHD Jets on Grids

As network performance has outpaced computational power and storage capacity, a new paradigm has evolved to enable the sharing of geographically distributed resources. This paradigm is known as Grid computing and aims to offer access to distributed resource irrespective of their physical location. Many national, European and international projects have been launched during the last years trying to explore the Grid and to change the way we are doing our everyday work. In Ireland, we have started the CosmoGrid project that is a collaborative project aimed to provide high performance super-computing environments. This will help to address complex problems such as magnetohydrodynamic outflows and jets in order to model and numerically simulate them. Indeed, the numerical modeling of plasma jets requires massive computations, due to the wide range of spatial-temporal scales involved. We present here the first jet simulations and their corresponding models that could help to understand results from laboratory experiments.     

X‐ray fluorescence measurements of the surface elemental composition of asteroid 433 Eros

Abstract— We report major element ratios determined for the S‐class asteroid 433 Eros using remote‐sensing x‐ray fluorescence spectroscopy with the near‐Earth asteroid rendezvous Shoemaker x‐ray spectrometer (XRS). Data analysis techniques and systematic errors are described in detail. Data acquired during five solar flares and during two extended “quiet Sun” periods are presented; these results sample a representative portion of the asteroid's surface. Although systematic uncertainties are potentially large, the most internally consistent and plausible interpretation of the data is that Eros has primitive Mg/Si, Al/Si, Ca/Si and Fe/Si ratios, closely similar to H or R chondrites. Global differentiation of the asteroid is ruled out. The S/Si ratio is much lower than that of chondrites, probably reflecting impact‐induced volatilization and/or photo‐ or ion‐induced sputtering of sulfur at the surface of the asteroid. An alternative explanation for the low S/Si ratio is that it reflects a limited degree of melting with loss of an FeS‐rich partial melt. Size‐sorting processes could lead to segregation of Fe‐Ni metal from silicates within the regolith of Eros; this could indicate that the Fe/Si ratios determined by the x‐ray spectrometer are not representative of the bulk Eros composition.     

Yield Estimation from Surface-wave Amplitudes

— Surface-wave amplitudes from explosion sources show less variation for a given event han body wave amplitudes, so it is natural to expect that yield estimates derived from surface waves will be more accurate than yield estimates derived from body waves. However, yield estimation from surface waves is complicated by the presence of tectonic strain release, which acts like one or more earthquake sources superimposed on top of the explosion. Moment-tensor inversion can be used to remove the tectonic component of the surface waves, however moment-tensor inversion for shallow sources is inherently non-unique so the explosion isotropic moment cannot be determined with the necessary accuracy by this means. Explosions on an island or near a mountain slope can exhibit anomalous surface waves similar to those caused by tectonic strain release. These complications cause yield estimates derived from surface waves to be less accurate than yield estimates from body waves recorded on a well-calibrated network with good coverage. Surface-wave amplitudes can be expressed as a surface-wave magnitude M _s , which is defined as the logarithm of the amplitude plus a distance correction, or as a path corrected spectral magnitude, log $M^{\prime}_0$ , which is derived from the surface-wave spectrum. We derive relations for M _s vs. yield and log $M^{\prime}_0$ vs. yield for a large data set and estimate the accuracy of these estimates.     

Orogenesis and Basin Development: U-Pb Detrital Zircon Age Constraints on Evolution of the Late Paleozoic St. Marys Basin, Central Mainland Nova Scotia

The St. Marys Basin, along the southern flank of the composite Late Paleozoic Magdalen Basin in the Canadian Appalachians and along the Avalon-Meguma terrane boundary, contains Late Devonian-Early Carboniferous continental clastic rocks of the Horton Group that were deposited in fluvial and lacustrine environments after the peak of the Acadian orogeny. SHRIMP II (Geological Survey of Canada) data on approximately 100 detrital zircons from three samples of Horton Group rocks from the St. Marys Basin show that most of the zircons have been involved in a multistage history, recycled from clastic rocks in the adjacent Meguma and Avalonian terranes. Although there is a minor contribution from Early Silurian (411 Ma) and Late Devonian suites (ca. 380-370 Ma), Neoproterozoic (ca. 700-550 Ma) and Paleoproterozoic (ca. 2.0-2.2 Ga) zircon populations predominate, with a minor contribution from ca. 1.0-, 1.2-, and 1.8-Ga zircons. Published U-Pb single-zircon analyses on clastic sedimentary rocks indicate that the Meguma and Avalon terranes have different populations of detrital zircons, sourced from discrete portions (Amazonian and West African cratons) of the ancient Gondwanan margin. Both terranes contain Neoproterozoic and Late Archean populations. The SHRIMP data, in conjunction with published sedimentological and geochemical data, indicate that the Horton Group basin-fill sediments are largely the result of rapid uplift and erosion of Meguma terrane metasedimentary and granitoid rocks immediately to the south of the St. Marys Basin during the waning stages of the Acadian orogeny. Regional syntheses indicate that this uplift occurred before and during deposition and was a consequence of dextral ramping of the Meguma terrane over the Avalon terrane along the southern flank of the Magdalen Basin.     

Systematic optimisation and climate simulation of FAMOUS, a fast version of HadCM3

FAMOUS is an unfluxadjusted coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) based on the Met Office Hadley Centre AOGCM HadCM3. Its parametrisations of physical and dynamical processes are almost identical to those of HadCM3, but by virtue of reduced horizontal and vertical resolution and increased timestep it runs about ten times faster. The speed of FAMOUS means that parameter sensitivities can be investigated more thoroughly than in slower higher-resolution models, with the result that it can be tuned closer to its target climatology. We demonstrate a simple method for systematic tuning of parameters, resulting in a configuration of FAMOUS whose climatology is significantly more realistic than would be expected for a model of its resolution and speed. FAMOUS has been tuned to reproduce the behaviour of HadCM3 as nearly as possible, in order that experiments with each model are of maximum relevance to the physical interpretation of the other. Analysis of the control climate and climate change simulation of FAMOUS show that it possesses sufficient skill for its intended purposes in Earth system science as a tool for long-timescale integrations and for large ensembles of integrations, when HadCM3 cannot be afforded. Thus, it can help to bridge the gap between models of intermediate complexity and the higher-resolution AOGCMs used for policy-relevant climate prediction.     

A method for detecting gravitational waves coincident with gamma-ray bursts

The mechanism for gamma-ray bursters and the detection of gravitational waves (GWs) are two outstanding problems facing modern physics. Many models of gamma-ray bursters predict copious GW emission, so the assumption of an association between GWs and gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) may be testable with existing bar GW detector data. We consider Weber bar data streams in the vicinity of known GRB times and present calculations of the expected signal after co-addition of 1000 GW/GRBs that have been shifted to a common zero time. Our calculations are based on assumptions concerning the GW spectrum and the redshift distribution of GW/GRB sources that are consistent with current GW/GRB models. We discuss further possibilities of GW detection associated with GRBs in light of future bar detector improvements and suggest that co-addition of data from several improved bar detectors may result in detection of GWs (if the GW/GRB assumption is correct) on a time-scale comparable to the LIGO projects.