Spatial distribution of snow depth based on geographically weighted regression kriging in the Bayanbulak Basin of the Tianshan Mountains,China

Snow depth is a general input variable in many models of agriculture,hydrology,climate and ecology.This study makes use of observational data of snow depth and explanatory variables to compare the accuracy and effect of geographically weighted regression kriging(GWRK)and regression kriging(RK)in a spatial interpolation of regional snow depth.The auxiliary variables are analyzed using correlation coefficients and the variance inflation factor(VIF).Three variables,Height,topographic ruggedness index(TRI),and land surface temperature(LST),are used as explanatory variables to establish a regression model for snow depth.The estimated spatial distribution of snow depth in the Bayanbulak Basin of the Tianshan Mountains in China with a spatial resolution of 1 km is obtained.The results indicate that 1)the result of GWRK's accuracy is slightly higher than that of RK(R~2=0.55 vs.R~2=0.50,RMSE(root mean square error)=0.102 m vs.RMSE=0.077 m);2)for the subareas,GWRK and RK exhibit similar estimation results of snow depth.Areas in the Bayanbulak Basin with a snow depth greater than 0.15m are mainly distributed in an elevation range of 2632.00–3269.00 m and the snow in this area comprises 45.00–46.00% of the total amount of snow in this basin.However,the GWRK resulted in more detailed information on snow depth distribution than the RK.The final conclusion is that GWRK is better suited for estimating regional snow depth distribution.     

Nonlinear analytic solution for perturbed relative motion using differential equinoctial elements

This paper develops a nonlinear analytic solution for satellite relative motion in J₂-perturbed elliptic orbits by using the geometric method that can avoid directly solving the complex differential equations. The differential equinoctial elements (DEEs) are used to remove any singularities for zero-eccentricity or zero-inclination orbits. Based on the relationship between the relative states and the DEEs, state transition tensors (STTs) for transforming the osculating DEEs and propagating the mean DEEs have been derived. The formulation of these STTs has been split into a set of vector and matrix operations, which avoids directly expanding the complex second-order terms, and thus, the obtained STTs could be easy-to-understand and easy-to-code. Numerical results show that the proposed nonlinear solution is valid for zero-eccentricity and zero-inclination reference orbit and is more accurate than the previous linear or nonlinear methods for the long-term prediction of satellite relative motion.     

北斗在南/北极地区的基本定位性能评估

基于BDS、GPS系统的星座结构,对当前的BDS二代导航系统（BD2）、全部建成后的BDS系统在极地科考站（黄河站、昆仑站、中山站、长城站）和北极圈的可见卫星数、DOP值、定位精度等进行评估,并将建成后的BDS、GPS及其组合系统在南/北极的基本定位性能进行对比分析。仿真结果表明,当前的BD2只实现了极地的部分覆盖,对极地提供导航定位的能力有限,大范围内的定位精度大于30.0 m; BDS在极地的定位精度将与GPS相当,可见卫星数可达13颗左右,PDOP值优于1.6,定位精度优于8.0 m;GPS/BDS组合后在极地的PDOP值优于1.4,定位精度优于6.0 m。
     

基于GNSS的LEO卫星TRAIM可用性算法及分析

详细研究了基于GNSS的LEO卫星接收机授时自主完好性（TRAIM）故障检测数学模型以及可用性算法。以GPS和BDS组合为例,分别对500 km、650 km、800 km和1 400 km等几种典型轨道高度的卫星,开展基于GNSS的LEO卫星TRAIM可用性仿真分析。结果表明,在告警阈值100 ns时,基于GPS+BDS组合系统的TRAIM检测可用概率达到99.1%以上,基本满足LEO卫星TRIAM检测可用性需求。     

Avalanche activity and characteristics of its triggering factors in the western Tianshan Mountains,China

Snow avalanche is a serious threat to the safety of roads in alpine mountains. In the western Tianshan Mountains, large scale avalanches occur every year and affect road safety. There is an urgent need to identify the characteristics of triggering factors for avalanche activity in this region to improve road safety and the management of natural hazards. Based on the observation of avalanche activity along the national road G218 in the western Tianshan Mountains, avalanche event data in combination with meteorological, snowpack and earthquake data were collected and analyzed. The snow climate of the mountain range was examined using a recently developed snow climate classification scheme, and triggering conditions of snow avalanche in different snow climate regions were compared. The results show that snowfall is the most common triggering factor for a natural avalanche and there is high probability of avalanche release with snowfall exceeding 20.4 mm during a snowfall period. Consecutive rise in temperature within three days and daily mean temperature reaching 0.5°C in the following day imply a high probability of temperaturerise-triggered avalanche release. Earthquakes have a significant impact on the formation of large size avalanches in the area. For the period 2011-2017, five cases were identified as a consequence of earthquake with magnitudes of 3.3≤M_L≤5.1 and source-to-site distances of 19~139 km. The Tianshan Mountains are characterized by a continental snow climate with lower snow density, lower snow shear strength and high proportion depth hoar, which explains that both the snowfall and temperature for triggering avalanche release in the continental snow climate of the Tianshan Mountains are lower than that in maritime snow climate and transitional snow climate regions. The findings help forecast avalanche release for mitigating avalanche disaster and assessing the risk of avalanche disaster.     

相变存储材料Ge1Sb2Te4和Ge2Sb2Te5薄膜的结构和电学特性研究

采用射频磁控溅射方法制备了两种用于相变存储器的Ge₁Sb₂Te₄和Ge₂Sb₂Te₅相变薄膜材料,对其结构、电学输运性质和恒温下电阻随时间的变化关系进行了比较和分析.X射线衍射(XRD)和原子力显微镜(AFM)的结果表明:随着退火温度的升高,Ge₁Sb₂Te₄薄膜逐步晶化,由非晶态转变为多晶态,表面出现均匀的、     

丝阵Z箍缩早期消融等离子体动力学的二维数值模拟研究

采用理想磁流体力学模型,给出合理的二维(r, θ)质量注入边界条件,对丝阵Z箍缩早期消融等离子体的动力学过程进行了二维(r, θ)数值模拟研究,得到消融等离子体各参量以及磁场的二维时空分布.模拟结果表明,消融等离子体的运动包括四个主要阶段:首先向轴漂移,然后在轴线处滞止并形成先驱等离子体柱,随后先驱等离子体柱被压缩,最后缓慢膨胀.计算了不同丝阵半径和丝间距情况下消融等离子体到轴速度以及消融质量占丝阵总质量的份额,它们的变化规律与实验结果基本符合.通过     

局域椭圆偏振光束强聚焦性质的研究

数值计算了局域椭圆偏振光束强聚焦时在焦平面上的横向场强分布、纵向场强分布、横向能流以及纵向角动量分布.结果显示在焦平面上光束总的纵向角动量为零,但在不同象限光束具有不同方向的纵向角动量.当相位延迟角度在0到π之间变化时横向场强分布基本不变,但纵向场强分布有很明显的变化.液晶相位延迟器由外部电压控制,使其相位延迟角度能在0到π之间可以连续取值.因而液晶相位延迟器的外接电压可以实现对焦平面上的纵向场强以及纵向角动量的实时调控.     

Nd:YAG纳秒激光诱导硅表面微结构的演化

利用Nd:YAG纳秒激光(波长为532和355 nm)对单晶硅在真空中进行了累积脉冲辐照,研究了表面微结构的演化情况.在激光辐照的初始阶段,532和355 nm激光脉冲均在硅表面诱导出了波纹结构,后者辐照硅表面后形成了近似同心但稍显混乱的环形波纹结构.随着脉冲数的增加,波纹结构逐渐演化为一种类似珠形的凹凸结构,最后形成准规则排列的微米量级锥形结构,该微结构的生长依赖于表面张力波和结构自组织.分析发现,形成的交叉环形结构主要是在355 nm激光辐照硅的过程中,表面张力波导致波纹结构部分叠加的结果.     

同步辐射标定平面镜反射率不确定度分析方法研究

为了提高多通道软X射线能谱仪的测量精度,2009年在北京同步辐射(BSRF)软X束线源上对多种材料的掠入射平面镜的反射率进行了标定.在标定实验的基础上,对光源的单色性、高次谐波以及源强稳定性、探测器响应一致性和数据采集统计误差等多项不确定因素进行了评估,给出了反射率的修正方法和相应的不确定度分析结果.