Ice‐jam flood risk assessment and mapping

In northern regions, river ice‐ jam flooding can be more severe than open‐water flooding causing property and infrastructure damages, loss of human life and adverse impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Very little has been performed to assess the risk induced by ice‐related floods because most risk assessments are limited to open‐water floods. The specific objective of this study is to incorporate ice‐jam numerical modelling tools (e.g. RIVICE, Monte‐Carlo simulation) into flood hazard and risk assessment along the Peace River at the Town of Peace River (TPR) in Alberta, Canada. Adequate historical data for different ice‐jam and open‐water flooding events were available for this study site and were useful in developing ice‐affected stage‐frequency curves. These curves were then applied to calibrate a numerical hydraulic model, which simulated different ice jams and flood scenarios along the Peace River at the TPR. A Monte‐Carlo analysis was then carried out to acquire an ensemble of water level profiles to determine the 1 : 100‐year and 1 : 200‐year annual exceedance probability flood stages for the TPR. These flood stages were then used to map flood hazard and vulnerability of the TPR. Finally, the flood risk for a 200‐year return period was calculated to be an average of $32/m²/a ($/m²/a corresponds to a unit of annual expected damages or risk). Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying the P–T–t conditions of north–south Lhasa terrane accretion: new insight into the pre‐Himalayan architecture of the Tibetan plateau

An integrated field, petrological and geochronological study of the Basong Tso region of south‐eastern Tibet has constrained the timing and P–T conditions of north–south Lhasa terrane accretion and provides new insight into the tectonothermal evolution of the Tibetan plateau. Two distinct high‐grade metamorphic belts are recognized in the region: a southern belt (the Basong Tso complex) that consists of sheared schist and orthogneiss; and a northern belt (the Zhala complex) that comprises paragneiss and granite. Combined pseudosection modelling and U–Pb geochronology of monazite and zircon indicates that the Basong Tso complex records peak metamorphic conditions of 9 ± 0.5 kbar and 690 ± 25 °C at c. 204–201 Ma, whereas the Zhala complex experienced peak metamorphic conditions of 5.0 ± 1.0 kbar and 740 ± 40 °C at c. 198–192 Ma. Microstructural analysis suggests that the two belts share a common early prograde history, after which the Basong Tso complex attained peak conditions following rapid burial, and the Zhala complex approached peak conditions along an isobaric path. Overall it is inferred that the Basong Tso and Zhala complexes represent the lower and upper structural levels of an evolving orogen that underwent Barrovian‐type metamorphism following collision (M1), followed by Buchan‐style overprinting at higher structural levels due to heat advection by syn‐tectonic granites (M2). Mylonitization (sensu lato) of the Basong Tso complex and juxtaposition of the two units occurred after attainment of peak conditions. The dominance of Mesozoic regional metamorphism across most of the Tibetan plateau indicates that Cenozoic crustal thickening processes, where present, are only manifested at depth.     

Postglacial chironomid assemblage succession in northernmost Ungava Peninsula,Canada

Sediment cores spanning the postglacial period were recovered from two coastal freshwater basins located 300 km apart in northernmost Ungava (Nunavik, Canada). A basal date from the sequence recovered near Wakeham Bay suggests that the region was ice‐free by as early as 9600 cal. a BP. The initial development of both investigated lacustrine ecosystems was characterised by chironomid assemblages strongly dominated by the Subtribe Tanytarsina. These early postglacial assemblages showed greatly reduced diversity but much greater abundance than during subsequent periods of lake evolution. An abrupt and distinct turnover in sedimentary chironomid assemblage composition and productivity, marked by a switch to a dominance of Orthocladiinae, occurred around 6 ka BP. This turnover likely corresponds with a significant disturbance in the regional environment, which could be linked to the final disappearance of the last remnants of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. These findings, based on the first palaeolimnological investigations undertaken in northernmost Ungava, provide new insights into lateglacial and postglacial faunal recolonisation patterns in aquatic ecosystems of the eastern Canadian Arctic. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of typhoon‐induced rainfall using nonparametric Monte Carlo simulation and locally weighted polynomial regression

Typhoons in Korea are the major causes of natural disasters in the Korean peninsula. In this study, rainfall generated by typhoons was quantitatively analysed using various statistical methods. First, the frequency analysis of rainfall induced by typhoons was carried out to calculate the design rainfall. Second, the frequency analysis of simulated rainfall derived by nonparametric Monte Carlo simulation (NMCS) was performed to evaluate the uncertainty of rainfall caused by typhoons. Third, the regression relationship between the physical characteristic factors of typhoons and rainfall was established by locally weighted polynomial regression (LWPR), and the characteristic factors of typhoons were simulated. The simulated characteristic factors were then used to estimate rainfall and to calculate the design rainfall by typhoons. Comparative analyses of design rainfalls as estimated using various statistical methods were performed. The LWPR showed good performance in terms of reproducing typhoon characteristics. Therefore, the combined NMCS and LWPR method suggested in this study can be used as a supplementary technique for assessing extreme rainfall with climate change and reflected variability. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The stability of sapphirine + quartz: calculated phase equilibria in FeO–MgO–Al2O3–SiO2–TiO2–O

The presence in rocks of coexisting sapphirine + quartz has been widely used to diagnose conditions of ultra‐high‐temperature (UHT) metamorphism (>900 °C), an inference based on the restriction of this assemblage to temperatures >980 °C in the conventionally considered FeO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂ (FMAS) chemical system. With a new thermodynamic model for sapphirine that includes Fe₂O₃, phase equilibra modelling using thermocalc software has been undertaken in the FeO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–O (FMASO) and FeO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂– TiO₂–O (FMASTO) chemical systems. Using a variety of calculated phase diagrams for quartz‐saturated systems, the effects of Fe₂O₃ and TiO₂ on FMAS phase relations are shown to be considerable. Importantly, the stability field of sapphirine + quartz assemblages extends down temperature to 850 °C in oxidized systems and thus out of the UHT range.     

Groundwater response to tidal fluctuations in a leaky confined coastal aquifer with a finite length

The study on the hydraulic properties of coastal aquifers has significant implications both in hydrological sciences and environmental engineering. Although many analytical solutions are available, most of them are based on the same basic assumption that assumes aquifers extend landward semi‐infinitely, which does not necessarily reflect the reality. In this study, the general solutions for a leaky confined coastal aquifer have been developed that consider both finitely landward constant‐head and no‐flow boundaries. The newly developed solutions were then used to examine theoretically the joint effects of leakage and aquifer length on hydraulic head fluctuations within the leaky confined aquifer, and the validity of using the simplified solution, which assumes the aquifer is semi‐infinite. The results illustrated that the use of the simplified solution may cause significant errors, depending on joint effects of leakage and aquifer length. A dimensionless characteristic parameter was then proposed as an index for judging the applicability of the simplified solution. In addition, practical application of the general solution for the constant‐head inland boundary was used to characterize the hydraulic properties of a leaky confined aquifer using the data collected from a field site at the Seine River estuary, France, and the versatility of the general solution was further justified.     

Upward flushing of sea water through first year ice

Abstract

Observations in both the ice and slush layers suggest that sea water intrudes into the snow layer following a snow storm. Ice temperature values recorded at 1 cm below the snow‐ice interface show that the upward flux of sea water is of short duration. This is followed by a period of intense brine drainage characterized by the migration of a salty brine layer, with salinities up to 42 psu. These results suggest that a snow storm induces a complete (upward) flushing of the brine channel network and major modifications of snow and ice characteristics.

Melt rates and downward brine fluxes were calculated using salinity measured in a 40 cm deep box placed on the ice‐water interface, which isolated a 50 × 50 cm area of sea ice from ocean mixing processes. In this semi‐isolated environment, observed salinity changes allowed us to determine melt water fluxes and brine drainage or flushing even though ice thickness measurements did not show any significant change. Melt rates up to 21 cm/month and equivalent growth rates up to 32 cm/month were measured.     

The life cycle of the intense IOP‐14 storm during CASPII. Part I: Analysis and simulations

Abstract

In this study, a 5‐day life‐cycle of the IOP‐14 storm during CASP II is examined using conventional observations and numerical simulations with a mesoscale version of the Canadian Regional Finite‐Element (RFE) model. Observational analysis reveals that the IOP‐14 storm forms from a lee trough, occurring along a strong baroclinic zone with an intense frontogenetic deformation, that interacts with an upper‐level travelling short‐wave trough across the Canadian Rockies. Then the storm experiences a slow, but nearly steady, growth while traversing the North American continent. It deepens explosively as it moves into the Atlantic Ocean. It appears that i) the enhanced large‐scale baroclinicity due to land‐sea temperature contrasts, ii) the tremendous latent heat release due to the transport of high‐θ_e air from the marine boundary layer, Hi) the decrease of surface drag and iv) the favourable westward tilt of the low with an amplifying trough all contribute to the explosive deepening of the storm.

Two consecutive simulations covering a total of 102 h during the storm development are carried out with a grid size of 50 km. The RFE model reproduces very well the formation of the surface low on the lee side of the Rockies, the track and deepening rates, the explosive development and decay of the storm, and various mesoscale phenomena (e.g., a “bent‐back” warm front, a “T‐bone” thermal pattern, a cold frontal “fracture”, an upper‐level “eye” and warm‐core structures), as verified by conventional observations, satellite imagery, flight‐level and dropsonde data from a research aircraft. It is found from potential vorticity (PV) analysis that the storm reaches its peak intensity as the upper‐level dry PV anomaly, the low‐level moist PV anomaly and surface thermal warmth are vertically superposed. PV inversions reveal that these anomalies contribute about 60%, 30% and 10%, respectively, to the 900‐hPa negative height perturbation. It is shown that the warm‐core structure near the cyclone centre is produced by advection of warmer air ahead of the cold front, rather than by adiabatic warming associated with subsidence.     

Selecting the best IDF model by using the multifractal approach

In this work, the multifractal properties of hourly rainfall data recorded at a location in Southern Spain have been related to the scale properties of the corresponding intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves. Four parametric models for the IDF curves have been fitted to the quantiles of rainfall obtained using the generalized Pareto frequency distribution function with the extreme data series obtained for the same place. The scaling of the rainfall intensity moments has been analysed, and the empirical moments scaling exponent function has been obtained. The corresponding values of q₁ and γ₁ have been empirical and theoretically calculated and compared with some characteristics of the different IDF models. Thus, the scaling behaviour of IDF curves has been analysed, and the best model has been selected. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.