重庆夏季旱涝的欧亚环流特征分析

计算了重庆地区夏季区域降水指数．采用相关、合成、奇异值分解等多种技术方法分析了重庆地区夏季旱涝的同期夏季和前期冬季欧亚环流特征,在此基础上定义了关键区环流指数．并分析了其对重庆地区夏季降水预报的指示意义。     

Statistical assessment of trends and oscillations in rainfall dynamics: Analysis of long daily Italian series

Since the 18th century systematic measurements of rainfall have been collected in Italy. The daily rainfall series observed in Milan (1835–2001), Genoa (1833–2000), Bologna (1813–2001) and Palermo (1797–1999) are examples of available long rainfall records. These data series can help analyzing the evolution of precipitation. The present paper deals with long term evolution of: (i) annual rainfall amount; (ii) annual number of rainy events; (iii) intensity of rainfall, (iv) inter-annual rainfall partitioning, i.e. the duration of wet and dry periods, and (v) maximum annual values of daily rainfall amount, duration of wet and dry periods. The evolution is studied analyzing the first two order statistics and the 30-year return period quantiles via moving window analysis. Confidence intervals are introduced to check the statistical significance of the estimated statistics and quantiles. The results are compared with those provided by the traditional Mann-Kendall test. The analysis shows how the annual precipitation exhibits a negative trend in the first half of 20th century, with a subsequent positive trend in northern Italy (Genoa, Milan and Bologna). Conversely, the dataset for Palermo (southern Italy) displays only a negative trend. Because the number of precipitation episodes is found to decrease in the investigated period, the average rain rate is significantly increasing especially in northern Italy. This is also associated with shorter duration of rain episodes with an evident effect on rainfall extremes. Dry periods tend to be longer with increasing variability. The Mann-Kendall test and its progressive form have shown to be well suited for monotonic trend, but the confidence interval analysis, introduced here, is more appropriate if oscillations are significant.     

The Impact of Vegetation Cover on Sahelian Drought Persistence

The sensitivity of the potential for convective precipitation to land surface characteristics in the West African Sudano-Sahelian zone is studied. Simulations are performed with a one-dimensional version of a mesoscale atmospheric model coupled to a detailed land surface model to investigate the influence of the land surface on rain infiltration, surface evapotranspiration, and their impact on the convective available potential energy. The simulations show that the presence of a densely vegetated surface acts as a catalyst in the hydrological cycle, creating a positive feedback and enhancing precipitation recycling. It is argued that this is due to the relation between the characteristic drying-out time of the soil and the return frequency of the rain-triggering African easterly waves.     

Relative optical mass functions for air, water vapour, ozone and nitrogen dioxide in atmospheric models presenting different latitudinal and seasonal conditions

Summary A study of the dependence features of the relative optical mass functions for air, water vapour, ozone and nitrogen dioxide on the apparent solar zenith angle was performed by calculating these optical parameters by means of the well-known computer code LOWTRAN 7 at several values of and for nine atmospheric models characterized by different latitudes and seasons. Moreover, other investigations were performed on the dependence features of (i) the relative optical air mass on the thermal characteristics of the low troposphere, (ii) the relative optical water vapour mass on the vertical distribution characteristics of absolute humidity in the troposphere, and (iii) the relative optical mass function for ozone and nitrogen dioxide on the shape characteristics of the vertical profiles of the two gaseous concentrations and the concentration peak altitudes. The results are compared with the values given by the two simple formulas proposed by Kasten (1966) for air and water vapour and the formulas defined by Young (1969) and Staehelin et al. (1995) for ozone and nitrogen dioxide. From this comparison, a wide set of correction factors were obtained which can be conveniently used in the analysis of multispectral sun-radiometric measurements for calculating, with a very high precision, the values of the four optical mass functions at all the angles in the 0° to 87° range, corresponding to the various latitudinal and seasonal conditions described by the nine atmospheric models.With 9 Figures     

基于SSA-MGF的BP神经网络多步预测模型

采用奇异谱分析（Singular Spectrum Analysis，SSA）方法对标准化样本序列进行准周期信号分量重建，将重建序列构造均值生成函数（Mean Generating Function．MGF）延拓矩阵作为输入因子，原样本序列作为输出因子，构建BP神经网络多步预测模型。通过实际建模并与逐步回归等方法进行对比预测试验，结果表明，基于SSA-MGF的BP神经网络多步预测模型预测效果优于其他3种模型，说明SSA的去噪及BP神经网络预报模型对于提高预测准确率是相对有效的，是一种具有较高应用价值的多步预测方法。     

基于客观分析的重庆雾的BP神经元网络预报模型研究

本文利用数值预报产品、TTAA报文观测资料及重庆雾(能见度)的实况资料,采用客观分析方法将相关资料处理成二维网格资料,再运用车贝雪夫正交多项式实现二维网格图形的数学定量描述,最后建立重庆雾的BP神经网络方法预测模型,并对重庆雾进行预报试验。检验结果表明,这种方法预报效果较好,基于客观分析的BP神经网络模型进行雾的短期预报具有一定的应用前景。     

Intercomparison and analyses of the climatology of the West African Monsoon in the West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation project (WAMME) first model intercomparison experiment

This paper briefly presents the West African Monsoon (WAM) Modeling and Evaluation Project (WAMME) and evaluates WAMME general circulation models’ (GCM) performances in simulating variability of WAM precipitation, surface temperature, and major circulation features at seasonal and intraseasonal scales in the first WAMME experiment. The analyses indicate that models with specified sea surface temperature generally have reasonable simulations of the pattern of spatial distribution of WAM seasonal mean precipitation and surface temperature as well as the averaged zonal wind in latitude-height cross-section and low level circulation. But there are large differences among models in simulating spatial correlation, intensity, and variance of precipitation compared with observations. Furthermore, the majority of models fail to produce proper intensities of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and the tropical easterly jet. AMMA Land Surface Model Intercomparison Project (ALMIP) data are used to analyze the association between simulated surface processes and the WAM and to investigate the WAM mechanism. It has been identified that the spatial distributions of surface sensible heat flux, surface temperature, and moisture convergence are closely associated with the simulated spatial distribution of precipitation; while surface latent heat flux is closely associated with the AEJ and contributes to divergence in AEJ simulation. Common empirical orthogonal functions (CEOF) analysis is applied to characterize the WAM precipitation evolution and has identified a major WAM precipitation mode and two temperature modes (Sahara mode and Sahel mode). Results indicate that the WAMME models produce reasonable temporal evolutions of major CEOF modes but have deficiencies/uncertainties in producing variances explained by major modes. Furthermore, the CEOF analysis shows that WAM precipitation evolution is closely related to the enhanced Sahara mode and the weakened Sahel mode, supporting the evidence revealed in the analysis using ALMIP data. An analysis of variability of CEOF modes suggests that the Sahara mode leads the WAM evolution, and divergence in simulating this mode contributes to discrepancies in the precipitation simulation.     

The use of σ T as a temperature scale in the atmospheric surface layer

The standard deviation of temperature _T is proposed as a temperature scale and as a velocity scale to describe the behaviour of turbulent flows in the Atmospheric Surface Layer (ASL), instead of _* andu _* of the Monin—Obukhov similarity theory, and ofT _f andU _f used for free convection stability conditions. On the basis of experimental evidence reported in the literature, it is shown that _T T _f andv _* U _f in the free convection region, and _{T *} andv _* U _* in nearneutral and stable conditions. This implies that the proposed scales can be applied for all stabilities. Furthermore, a new length scale is proposed and its relation with Obukhov length is given. Also, a simple semi-empirical expression is presented with which _T andv _* can be evaluated in a rather simple way. Some examples of practical applications are given, e.g., a stability classification for unstable conditions.     

An Extra Large Aperture Scintillometer For Long Range Applications

An incoherent scintillometer with 0.31-m aperture was testedalong a 9.8-km path over grassland. Scintillometer derived heat fluxes were comparedwith in situ eddy covariance measurements. Albeit with considerable scatter, the fluxescompared well during daytime. During nighttime credible fluxes are also obtained. The scintillometerfunctioned satisfactory for 96% of the 7-week period.     

Innovation benefits from nuclear phase-out: can they compensate the costs?

This paper investigates whether an inefficient allocation of abatement due to constraints on the use of currently available low carbon mitigation options can promote innovation in new technologies and have a positive impact on welfare. We focus on the case of a nuclear power phase-out and endogenous technical change in energy efficiency and alternative low carbon technologies. The research is inspired by the re-thinking about nuclear power deployment which took place in some countries, especially in Western Europe, after the Fukushima accident in March 2011. The analysis uses an Integrated Assessment Model, WITCH, which features multiple externalities related to greenhouse gas emissions and innovation market failures. Our results show that phasing out nuclear power stimulates R&D investments and deployment of technologies with large learning potential. The resulting technology benefits that would not otherwise occur due to intertemporal and international externalities almost completely offset the economic costs of foregoing nuclear power. The extent of technology benefits depends on the stringency of the climate policy and is distributed unevenly across countries.