Landslide susceptibility modeling assisted by Persistent Scatterers Interferometry (PSI): an example from the northwestern coast of Malta

Natural Hazards - Persistent Scatterers Interferometry (PSI) techniques are widely employed in geosciences to detect and monitor landslides with high accuracy over large areas, but they also suffer...     

A new hydrostratigraphic model of Venice area (Italy)

Two environmental problems affect the Venice area: subsidence, which has been increasing due to the intensive water abstraction after the Second World War, and contamination of the soil and shallow aquifers. In order to address these problems, which are decisive factors in the entire Venetian ecosystem, the aquifer structure must be known in detail. The lithologic data are abundant and of good quality up to a depth of 50 m, whereas boreholes beyond this depth are much rarer and more dispersed, making their associated lithological data unreliable. This work, which uses the available data together with fast and low cost passive seismic measurements, provides an improved understanding of the deeper hydrogeologic domain. For this purpose, a MATLAB package (Modalstrata) has been developed to improve the correlation of the stratigraphic succession for each selected homogeneous sub-area and applied to obtain a new, upgraded hydrostratigraphic model. The horizontal to vertical spectral ratio passive seismic surveys have confirmed the lateral correlations among the sample areas at least for the two main aquifer horizons. Analysis and comparisons of several previous studies performed on the data related to the only drilling continuous coring 951 m deep in the Tronchetto Island (Venice), have allowed a satisfactory validation of the proposed hydrogeological model.     

Socioeconomic impacts of environmental risks in the western Makran zone (Chabahar,Iran)

Natural Hazards - The western Makran subduction zone is capable of producing considerable tsunami run-up heights that penetrate up to 5 km inland. In this study, we show how climate change...     

Comparing predictive capability of statistical and deterministic methods for landslide susceptibility mapping: a case study in the northern Apennines (Reggio Emilia Province, Italy)

Statistical and deterministic methods are widely used in geographic information system based landslide susceptibility mapping. This paper compares the predictive capability of three different models, namely the Weight of Evidence, the Fuzzy Logic and SHALSTAB, for producing shallow earth slide susceptibility maps, to be included as informative layers in land use planning at a local level. The test site is an area of about 450 km² in the northern Apennines of Italy where, in April 2004, rainfall combined with snowmelt triggered hundreds of shallow earth slides that damaged roads and other infrastructure. An inventory of the landslides triggered by the event was obtained from interpretation of aerial photos dating back to May 2004. The pre-existence of mapped landslides was then checked using earlier aerial photo coverage. All the predictive models were run on the same set of geo-environmental causal factors: soil type, soil thickness, land cover, possibility of deep drainage through the bedrock, slope angle, and upslope contributing area. Model performance was assessed using a threshold-independent approach (the ROC plot). Results show that global accuracy is as high as 0.77 for both statistical models, while it is only 0.56 for SHALSTAB. Besides the limited quality of input data over large areas, the relatively poorer performance of the deterministic model maybe also due to the simplified assumptions behind the hydrological component (steady-state slope parallel flow), which can be considered unsuitable for describing the hydrologic behavior of clay slopes, that are widespread in the study area.     

3 Ma以来轨道尺度东亚冬季风演化的模拟研究

轨道尺度东亚冬季风变率对认识第四纪东亚环境演化和北半球冰盖演化具有重要的作用。文章利用德国波茨坦气候影响研究所的中等复杂程度地球系统模式(CLIMBER-2)对过去3 Ma气候和环境的模拟结果,探讨了轨道尺度东亚冬季风演化特征及其变化机制。采用两种指数反映东亚冬季风强度,分别指示中纬度西风强度(EAWMU)和东亚北风强度(EAWMV)。CLIMBER-2较好地模拟出了3 Ma以来地球冰期-间冰期旋回特征,以及第四纪以来全球变冷趋势。东亚冬季风在过去3 Ma以来呈现逐渐增强的趋势,EAWMV和EAWMU分别在约2.6 Ma和约1.5 Ma突然增强。EAWMV(EAWMU)在约2.2 Ma(约1.5 Ma)之前主要以20 ka岁差周期为主导,约2.2~1.0 Ma(约1.5~1.0 Ma)的转型期以41 ka倾角周期和20 ka岁差周期为主导,约1.0 Ma之后则均出现100 ka、41 ka和20 ka这3个轨道周期特征,并以100 ka偏心率周期为主导。在约2.2 Ma(约1.5 Ma)之前,EAWMV(EAWMU)主要受控于太阳辐射的直接强迫作用,北半球冰盖的作用相对较弱,在此之后北半球冰盖起主导作用,太阳辐射的直接强迫作用相对较弱。因此,第四纪东亚冬季风与北半球冰盖存在复杂的耦合关系,当冰盖规模较小时,它们的关系很弱;反之,当冰盖规模较大时,它们的联系加强。

     

Reconstruction and analysis of two long-term precipitation time series: Alpe Devero and Domodossola (Italian Western Alps)

With this study, we analyzed two long-term precipitation time series recorded at Alpe Devero and Domodossola (Italian Western Alps) for two periods (1916–2010 and 1872–2010, respectively). The aims of the study were: to create the first precipitation time series covering more than 50?years for Alpe Devero, to extend and update the precipitation time series for Domodossola, to detect changes by means of trend analysis on the precipitation time series. After an accurate analysis of the metadata and the measurements recorded at each station, a trend analysis was performed on both datasets. The results showed a statistically significant decline in winter, summer, and annual precipitation at Alpe Devero and a nonsignificant decrease in seasonal and annual precipitation at Domodossola. Covering more than 90?years, the long-term precipitation time series at Alpe Devero and Domodossola represent unique data sets for this sector of Italian Western Alps. Continuing updating of the data could provide a useful resource for climate change studies in this area and, within a wider perspective, in Alpine regions.