Comparison of transfer functions in statistical downscaling models for daily temperature and precipitation over Canada

This study compares three linear models and one non-linear model, specifically multiple linear regression (MLR) with ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates, robust regression, ridge regression, and artificial neural networks (ANNs), to identify an appropriate transfer function in statistical downscaling (SD) models for the daily maximum and minimum temperatures (T_max and T_min) and daily precipitation occurrence and amounts (P_occ and P_amount). This comparison was made over twenty-five observation sites located in five different Canadian provinces (British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and Québec). Reanalysis data were employed as atmospheric predictor variables of SD models. Predictors of linear transfer functions and ANN were selected by linear correlations coefficient and mutual information, respectively. For each downscaled case, annual and monthly models were developed and analysed. The monthly MLR, annual ANN, annual ANN, and annual MLR yielded the best performance for T_max, T_min, P_occ and P_amont according to the modified Akaike information criterion (AICu). A monthly MLR is recommended for the transfer functions of the four predictands because it can provide a better performance for the T_max and as good performance as the annual MLR for the T_min, P_occ, and P_amount. Furthermore, a monthly MLR can provide a slightly better performance than an annual MLR for extreme events. An annual MLR approach is also equivalently recommended for the transfer functions of the four predictands because it showed as good a performance as monthly MLR in spite of its mathematical simplicity. Robust and ridge regressions are not recommended because the data used in this study are not greatly affected by outlier data and multicollinearity problems. An annual ANN is recommended only for the T_min, based on the best performance among the models in terms of both the RMSE and AICu.     

High resolution simulation of the South Asian monsoon using a variable resolution global climate model

This study examines the feasibility of using a variable resolution global general circulation model (GCM), with telescopic zooming and enhanced resolution (~35 km) over South Asia, to better understand regional aspects of the South Asian monsoon rainfall distribution and the interactions between monsoon circulation and precipitation. For this purpose, two sets of ten member realizations are produced with and without zooming using the LMDZ (Laboratoire Meteorologie Dynamique and Z stands for zoom) GCM. The simulations without zoom correspond to a uniform 1° × 1° grid with the same total number of grid points as in the zoom version. So the grid of the zoomed simulations is finer inside the region of interest but coarser outside. The use of these finer and coarser resolution ensemble members allows us to examine the impact of resolution on the overall quality of the simulated regional monsoon fields. It is found that the monsoon simulation with high-resolution zooming greatly improves the representation of the southwesterly monsoon flow and the heavy precipitation along the narrow orography of the Western Ghats, the northeastern mountain slopes and northern Bay of Bengal (BOB). A realistic Monsoon Trough (MT) is also noticed in the zoomed simulation, together with remarkable improvements in representing the associated precipitation and circulation features, as well as the large-scale organization of meso-scale convective systems over the MT region. Additionally, a more reasonable simulation of the monsoon synoptic disturbances (lows and disturbances) along the MT is noted in the high-resolution zoomed simulation. On the other hand, the no-zoom version has limitations in capturing the depressions and their movement, so that the MT zone is relatively dry in this case. Overall, the results from this work demonstrate the usefulness of the high-resolution variable resolution LMDZ model in realistically capturing the interactions among the monsoon large-scale dynamics, the synoptic systems and the meso-scale convective systems, which are essential elements of the South Asian monsoon system.     

GIS‐assisted modelling for debris flow hazard assessment based on the events of May 1998 in the area of Sarno,Southern Italy: Part I. Maximum run‐out

Based on the debris flow events that occurred in May 1998 in the area of Sarno, Southern Italy, this paper presents an approach to simulate debris flow maximum run‐out. On the basis of the flow source areas and an average thickness of 1·2 m of the scarps, we estimated debris flow volumes of the order of 10⁴ and 10⁵ m³. Flow mobility ratios (ΔH/L) derived from the x, y, z coordinates of the lower‐most limit of the source areas (i.e. apex of the alluvial fan) and the distal limit of the flows ranged between 0·27 and 0·09. We performed regression analyses that showed a good correlation between the estimated flow volumes and mobility ratios. This paper presents a methodology for predicting maximum run‐out of future debris flow events, based on the developed empirical relationship. We implemented the equation that resulted from the calibration as a set of GIS macros written in Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) and running within ArcGIS. We carried out sensitivity analyses and observed that hazard mapping with this methodology should attempt to delineate hazard zones with a minimum horizontal resolution of 0·4 km. The developed procedure enables the rapid delineation of debris flow maximum extent within reasonable levels of uncertainty, it incorporates sensitivities and it facilitates hazard assessments via graphic user interfaces and with modest computing resources. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

皖南和赣东北蛇绿岩成因及其构造意义：元素和Sm－Nd同位素制约

本文对扬子块体南缘构造侵位于板溪群（及相应地层）的皖南和赣东北晚元古代蛇绿岩进行了系统的元素和Ｓｍ－Ｎｄ同位素地球化学研究，结果表明两套蛇绿岩具有类似的元素地球化学特征，即二者的火山岩元素地球化学特征均类似于形成于弧后盆地构造环境的拉斑玄武岩。但是，两套蛇绿岩的Ｎｄ同位素组成明显不同。赣东北蛇绿岩具有相当均一的高εＮｄ（Ｔ）值（＋５．５±１．２），表明来源于一较亏损的上地幔源区，并且没有受到明显的较成熟地壳物质的混染。相反，皖南蛇绿岩的εＮｄ（Ｔ）值低，并有较大的变化范围（＋４．５──１．０），并和Ｓｍ／Ｎｄ、Ｎｄ、ＭｇＯ、ＳｉＯ２呈明显的二元混合相关关系，表明蛇绿岩是由亏损幔源岩浆（初始εＮｄ（Ｔ）≈＋５．５）在结晶分异过程中与地壳组分（初始εＮｄ（Ｔ）≈－１）混合形成的。皖南和赣东北蛇绿岩的Ｎｄ同位素和元素地球化学特征以及该地区的同时代花岗岩和火山岩的时空分布特征，可以用华南和扬子元古宙陆－弧－陆碰撞模式来解释。大约在１．０Ｇａ前，扬子和华南块体之间存在一多岛弧洋盆。大陆边缘岛弧和大洋岛弧在扬子块体南缘发育演化。皖南和赣东北蛇绿岩就是在大陆边缘盆地和弧间盆地演化过程中形成的洋壳构造侵位的碎片。该地区Ｉ型     

Reconstruction of sea surface dimethylsulfide in the North Pacific during 1970s to 2000s

We proposed an empirical equation of sea surface dimethylsulfide (DMS, nM) using sea surface temperature (SST, K), sea surface nitrate (SSN, μM) and latitude (L, °N) to reconstruct the sea surface flux of DMS over the North Pacific between 25°N and 55°N: ln DMS = 0.06346 · SST − 0.1210 · SSN − 14.11 · cos(L) − 6.278 (R² = 0.63, p < 0.0001). Applying our algorithm to climatological hydrographic data in the North Pacific, we reconstructed the climatological distributions of DMS and its flux between 25 °N and 55 °N. DMS generally increased eastward and northward, and DMS in the northeastern region became to 2–5 times as large as that in the southwestern region. DMS in the later half of the year was 2–4 times as large as that in the first half of the year. Moreover, applying our algorithm to hydrographic time series datasets in the western North Pacific from 1971 to 2000, we found that DMS in the last three decades has shown linear increasing trends of 0.03 ± 0.01 nM year^− 1 in the subpolar region, and 0.01 ± 0.001 nM year^− 1 in the subtropical region, indicating that the annual flux of DMS from sea to air has increased by 1.9–4.8 μmol m^− 2 year^− 1. The linear increase was consistent with the annual rate of increase of 1% of the climatological averaged flux in the western North Pacific in the last three decades.     

Macrostructural changes in compacted earthen construction materials under loading

There is increasing interest in the use of earthen materials for modern construction. The mechanical behaviour of these materials is strongly controlled by their internal macrostructures. Rammed earth (RE) is one example of these materials, created by in situ compaction of a wet soil mixture. Changes to the material structure occur on loading and during compaction; therefore, the nature of these changes needs to be understood if the effect on the material behaviour can be predicted. Here, the change in the macrostructure of RE on the application of compressive loading is investigated by using X-ray computed tomography and fractal analysis to monitor the changes in loaded RE specimens. The macrostructures of specimens comprising different layer thicknesses are also investigated in order to determine how layer thickness affects the compaction of the material. Results are used to recommend procedures for manufacturing specimens that are representative of the material found in full-scale RE structures.     

Surface renewal analysis for sensible and latent heat flux density

High frequency temperature measurements were recorded at five heights and surface renewal (SR) analysis was used to estimate sensible heat flux density (H) over 0.1 m tall grass. Traces of the temperature data showed ramp-like structures, and the mean amplitude and duration of these ramps were used to calculate H using structure functions. Data were compared with H values measured with a sonic anemometer. Latent heat flux density (E) was calculated using an energy balance and the results were compared with E computed from the sonic anemometer data. SR analysis provided good estimates of H for data recorded at all heights but the canopy top and at the highest measurement level, which was above the fully adjusted boundary layer.     

ON ERRORS OF FIT AND ACCURACY IN MATCHING SYNTHETIC SEISMOGRAMS AND SEISMIC TRACES*

A synthetic seismogram that closely resembles a seismic trace recorded at a well may not be at all reliable for, say, stratigraphic interpretation around the well. The most accurate synthetic seismogram is, in general, not the one that displays the smallest errors of fit to the trace but the one that best estimates the noise on the trace. If the match is confined to a short interval of interest or if the seismic reflection wavelet is allowed to be unduly long, there is considerable danger of forcing a spurious fit that treats the noise on the trace as part of the seismic reflection signal instead of making a genuine match with the signal itself. This paper outlines tests that allow an objective and quantitative evaluation of the accuracy of any match and illustrates their application with practical examples. The accuracy of estimation is summarized by the normalized mean square error (NMSE) in the estimated reflection signal, which is shown to be (/n)(P_N/P_S) where P_S/P_N is the signal-to-noise power ratio and n is the spectral smoothing factor. That is, the accuracy varies directly with the ratio of the power in the signal (taken to be the synthetic) to that in the noise on the seismic trace, and the smoothing acts to improve the accuracy of the predicted signal. The construction of confidence intervals for the NMSE is discussed. Guidelines for the choice of the spectral smoothing factor n are given. The variation of wavelet shape due to different realizations of the noise component is illustrated, and the use of confidence intervals on wavelet phase is recommended. Tests are described for examining the normality and stationarity of the errors of fit and their independence of the estimated reflection signal.     

Environmental magnetic studies on surface sediments: a proxy for metal and hydrocarbon contamination

Visakhapatnam is one of the major port cities, and it is developed into a hub of many large- and medium-scale industries. Due to growing industrialization and urbanization, coast is vulnerable to both organic and inorganic micro-pollutants. Twenty-five surface sediments were collected along the Visakhapatnam coast for the measurement of texture size, petroleum hydrocarbons, trace metals and environmental magnetic parameters. The percentage of coarser particles was more in the northern region, whereas the percentage of fine particles was increased toward south. Elevated levels of petroleum hydrocarbons and trace metals were attributed due to marine and land-based sources, in particular, those were due to shipping activities, treated and partially treated sewage and industrial wastes. The concentrations of trace metals, petroleum hydrocarbons and magnetic minerals were decreased from nearshore to seaward. Our results revealed that the magnetic mineralogy is dominated by magnetite with a small proportion of hematite, and the grain size of magnetic minerals was in the range of pseudo-single domain to multidomain nature with detrital origin. From the principal component analysis, the magnetic concentration and mineralogy-dependent parameters co-vary with the heavy metal and PHC concentrations, suggesting that the inputs of magnetic minerals, petroleum hydrocarbons and heavy metals in the Visakhapatnam shelf sediments were derived from the same anthropogenic sources. Thus, the large magnetic dataset can be used to reduce the number of chemical analysis; hence, environmental magnetic parameters were used as a proxy for both organic and inorganic micro-pollutants.     

Trends in phosphatase activity along a successional gradient of tidal freshwater marshes on the Cooper River South Carolina

Phosphatase activity was measured in sediments from tidal freshwater habitats adjacent to the Cooper River in South Carolina representing different stages of ecological succession. It was found that sediment (0–5 cm) acid phosphatase activity, alkaline phosphatase activity and phosphodiesterase activity increased with increasing successional stage and phytomass. Acid phosphatase activity in creased from 7.5±1.2 (±1 SD) in subtidal sediment from a shallow open water habitat without vegetation to 61.2±4.9 μmol g⁻¹ hr⁻¹ (μmol of p-nitrophenol released per gram of dry sediment per hour) in intertidal sediments colonized by emergent macrophytes, while alkaline phosphatase activity increased from 2.1±0.1 to 19.01±1.5 μmol g⁻¹ hr⁻¹. Phosphodiesterase activity increased from 1.8±0.1 to 20.2±2.0 μmol g⁻¹ hr⁻¹ along the same gradient. Acid phosphatase activity was highly correlated (R²=0.92, P<0.001) with the organic matter content of the sediment. A study of phosphatase kinetics showed that V_max of all phosphatases also increased along the successional gradient. Trends in phosphatase activity and V_max correlated positively with plant biomass and negatively with concentrations of soluble reactive phosphorus in porewater, sediment extractable phosphorus, and total phosphourus. The porewater N∶P atom ratio decreased along the succession gradient from 25.3 in an early stage, open water community to 13.0 in a community dominated by emergent vegetation. The data also show that the distribution of the forms of phosphorus changed with successional stage. The change in distribution and the increased biological demand for phosphorus that paralleled succession were mediated by the activity of phosphatase enzymes.