Modelling the chloride signal at Plynlimon,Wales, using a modified dynamic TOPMODEL incorporating conservative chemical mixing (with uncertainty)

The application of a modified version of dynamic TOPMODEL for two subcatchments at Plynlimon, Wales is described. Conservative chemical mixing within mobile and immobile stores has been added to the hydrological model in an attempt to simulate observed stream chloride concentrations. The model was not fully able to simulate the observed behaviour, in particular the short‐ to medium‐term dynamics. One of the primary problems highlighted by the study was the representation of dry deposition and cloud‐droplet‐deposited chloride, which formed a significant part of the long‐term chloride mass budget. Equifinality of parameter sets inhibited the ability to determine the effective catchment mixing volumes and coefficients or the most likely partition between occult mass inputs and chloride mass inputs determined by catchment immobile‐store antecedent conditions. Some success was achieved, in as much as some aspects of the dynamic behaviour of the signal were satisfactorily simulated, although spectral analysis showed that the model could not fully reproduce the 1/f power spectra of observed stream chloride concentrations with its implications of a wide distribution of residence times for water in the catchment. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Least‐square support vector machine applied to settlement of shallow foundations on cohesionless soils

This paper examines the potential of least‐square support vector machine (LSVVM) in the prediction of settlement of shallow foundation on cohesionless soil. In LSSVM, Vapnik's ε‐insensitive loss function has been replaced by a cost function that corresponds to a form of ridge regression. The LSSVM involves equality instead of inequality constraints and works with a least‐squares cost function. The five input variables used for the LSSVM for the prediction of settlement are footing width (B), footing length (L), footing net applied pressure (P), average standard penetration test value (N) and footing embedment depth (d). Comparison between LSSVM and some of the traditional interpretation methods are also presented. LSSVM has been used to compute error bar. The results presented in this paper clearly highlight that the LSSVM is a robust tool for prediction of settlement of shallow foundation on cohesionless soil. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nature of the small main belt Asteroid 3169 Ostro

We present a set of rotational lightcurve measurements of the small main belt Asteroid 3169 Ostro. Our observations reveal an unambiguous, double-peaked rotational lightcurve with a peak-to-peak variation up to 1.2±0.05 mag and a synodic period of 6.509±0.001 h. From the large flux variation and the overall shape of the lightcurves, we suggest that 3169 Ostro could be a tightly bound binary or a contact binary, similar to the Trojan Asteroid 624 Hektor. A shape model of this system is proposed on the assumption that 3169 Ostro is a Roche binary described by a pair of homogeneous elongated bodies, with a size ratio of 0.87, in hydrostatic equilibrium and in circular synchronous motion around each other. The direction of the spin axis is determined modulo 180° by its J2000 ecliptic coordinates λ₀=50±10°, β₀=±54±5°. The binary interpretation and the pole solution adequately fit the earlier photometric observations made in 1986 and 1988. However, additional supporting lightcurves are highly desirable especially in the next mutual events occurrence of 2008 and 2009 in order to remove the pole ambiguity and to confirm unambiguously the binary nature of 3169 Ostro.     

A multiproxy climate record from a raised bog in County Fermanagh,Northern Ireland: a critical examination of the link between bog surface wetness and solar variability

A proxy climate record from a raised bog in County Fermanagh, Northern Ireland, is presented. The record spans the interval between 2850 cal. yr BC and cal. yr AD 1000 and chronological control is achieved through the use of tephrochronology and ¹⁴C dating, including a wiggle‐match on one section of the record. Palaeoclimatic inferences are based on a combination of a testate amoebae‐derived water table reconstruction, peat humification and plant macrofossil analyses. This multiproxy approach enables proxy‐specific effects to be identified. Major wet shifts are registered in the proxies at ca. 1510 cal. yr BC, 750 cal. yr BC and cal. yr AD 470. Smaller magnitude shifts to wetter conditions are also recorded at ca. 380 cal. yr BC, 150 cal. yr BC, cal. yr AD 180, and cal. yr AD 690. It is hypothesised that the wet shifts are not merely local events as they appear to be linked to wider climate deteriorations in northwest Europe. Harmonic analysis of the proxies illustrates statistically significant periodicities of 580, 423–373, 307 and 265 years that may be related to wider Holocene climate cycles. This paper illustrates how the timing of climate changes registered in peat profiles records can be precisely constrained using tephrochronology to examine possible climatic responses to solar forcing. Relying on interpolated chronologies with considerable dating uncertainty must be avoided if the climatic responses to forcing mechanisms are to be fully understood. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

People and large carnivores as biostratinomic agents in Lateglacial cave assemblages

Biostratinomic analysis (processes acting between death and burial) of Lateglacial mammal bone assemblages from three caves in northern England demonstrates the value of re‐examining archived assemblages. With AMS radiocarbon dating of key specimens, these assemblages shed light on the ecology of a region at the northern limit of Lateglacial human activity in Britain. During the Lateglacial Interstadial bears, wolves and humans expanded into the region, bears by around 12 500 ¹⁴C yr BP, and the earliest evidence for human presence is around 12 300 ¹⁴C yr BP. At Victoria Cave, wolf activity included predation and scavenging of large ungulates and scavenging bear carcasses apparently resulting from hibernation deaths. The scavenging of bear carcasses is possibly confined to the first part of the Lateglacial Interstadial, whereas evidence for wolf scavenging large ungulates increases later in the Interstadial, after about 11 800 ¹⁴C yr BP, perhaps reflecting changes in the productivity of the Lateglacial ecosystem, and in human subsistence patterns. The assemblage from Sewell's Cave is wolf den debris from the very end of the Lateglacial Interstadial around 10 800 ¹⁴C yr BP, whilst that from Kinsey Cave is dominated by large‐bodied carnivores, and is argued to have a quite different taphonomic history. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An enlarged and updated internally consistent thermodynamic dataset with uncertainties and correlations: the system K2O–Na2O–CaO–MgO–MnO–FeO–Fe2O3–Al2O3–TiO2–SiO2–C–H2–O2

We present, as a progress report, a revised and much enlarged version of the thermodynamic dataset given earlier (Holland & Powell, 1985). This new set includes data for 123 mineral and fluid end-members made consistent with over 200 P–T–X_CO2–f_O2 phase equilibrium experiments. Several improvements and advances have been made, in addition to the increased coverage of mineral phases: the data are now presented in three groups ranked according to reliability; a large number of iron-bearing phases has been included through experimental and, in some cases, natural Fe:Mg partitioning data; H₂O and CO₂ contents of cordierites are accounted for with the solution model of Kurepin (1985); simple Landau theory is used to model lambda anomalies in heat capacity and the Al/Si order–disorder behaviour in some silicates, and Tschermak-substituted end-members have been derived for iron and magnesium end-members of chlorite, talc, muscovite, biotite, pyroxene and amphibole. For the subset of data which overlap those of Berman (1988), it is encouraging to find both (1) very substantial agreement between the two sets of thermodynamic data and (2) that the two sets reproduce the phase equilibrium experimental brackets to a very similar degree of accuracy. The main differences in the two datasets involve size (123 as compared to 67 end-members), the methods used in data reduction (least squares as compared to linear programming), and the provision for estimation of uncertainties with this dataset. For calculations on mineral assemblages in rocks, we aim to maximize the information available from the dataset, by combining the equilibria from all the reactions which can be written between the end-members in the minerals. For phase diagram calculations, we calculate the compositions of complex solid solutions (together with P and T) involved in invariant, univariant and divariant assemblages. Moreover we strongly believe in attempting to assess the probable uncertainties in calculated equilibria and hence provide a framework for performing simple error propagation in all calculations in thermocalc, the computer program we offer for an effective use of the dataset and the calculation methods we advocate.     

Heavy metal release by peat erosion in the Peak District,southern Pennines,UK

Upper North Grain (UNG) is a heavily eroding blanket peat catchment in the Peak District, southern Pennines, UK. Concentrations of lead in the near‐surface peat layer at UNG are in excess of 1000 mg kg⁻¹. For peatland environments, these lead concentrations are some of the highest globally. High concentrations of industrially derived, atmospherically transported magnetic spherules are also stored in the near‐surface peat layer. Samples of suspended sediment taken during a storm event that occurred on 1 November 2002 at UNG, and of the potential catchment sources for suspended sediments, were analysed for lead content and the environmental magnetic properties of anhysteretic remanent magnetization (ARM) and saturation isothermal remanent magnetization (SIRM). At the beginning of the storm event, there is a peak in both suspended sediment and associated lead concentration. SIRM/ARM values for suspended sediment samples throughout the storm reveal that the initial ‘lead flush’ is associated with a specific sediment source, namely that of organic sediment eroded from the upper peat layer. Using the magnetic ‘fingerprinting’ approach to discrimination of sediment sources, this study reveals that erosion of the upper peat layer at UNG is releasing high concentrations of industrially derived lead (and, by inference, other toxic heavy metals associated with industrial particulates) into the fluvial systems of the southern Pennines. Climate‐change scenarios for the UK, involving higher summer temperatures and stormier winters, may result in an increased flux both of sediment‐associated and dissolved heavy metals from eroding peatland catchments in the southern Pennines, adversely affecting the quality of sediment and water entering reservoirs of the region. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.