Benchmarking sustainability in cities: The role of indicators and future scenarios

Scenarios are a useful tool to help think about and visualise the future and, as such, are utilised by many policymakers and practitioners. Future scenarios have not been used to explore the urban context in much depth, yet have the potential to provide valuable insights into the robustness of decisions being made today in the name of sustainability. As part of a major research project entitled Urban Futures, a toolkit has been developed in the UK to facilitate the use of scenarios in any urban context and at any scale relevant to that context. The toolkit comprises two key components, namely, (i) a series of indicators comprising both generic and topic area-specific indicators (e.g., air quality, biodiversity, density, water) that measure sustainability performance and (ii) a list of characteristics (i.e., 1–2-sentence statements about a feature, issue or small set of issues) that describe four future scenarios. In combination, these two components enable us to measure the performance of any given sustainability indicator, and establish the relative sensitivity or vulnerability of that indicator to the different future scenarios. An important aspect of the methodology underpinning the toolkit is that it is flexible enough to incorporate new scenarios, characteristics and indicators, thereby allowing the long-term performance of our urban environments to be considered in the broadest possible sense.     

Acidification recovery in a changing climate: Observations from thirty-five years of stream chemistry monitoring in forested headwater catchments at the Turkey Lakes watershed,Ontario

Long-term ecosystem studies are valuable for understanding integrated ecosystem response to global changes in atmospheric deposition and climate. We examined trends for a 35-year period (1982/83–2017/18) in concentrations of a range of solutes in precipitation and stream water from nine headwater catchments spanning elevation and surficial geology gradients at the Turkey Lakes watershed (TLW) in northeastern Ontario, Canada. Average annual water year (WY, October to September) concentrations in precipitation significantly declined over the period for sulphate (SO₄²⁻), nitrate (NO₃⁻) and chloride (Cl⁻), while calcium (Ca²⁺) and potassium (K⁺) concentrations increased, resulting in a significant pH increase from 4.2 to 5.7. Trends in stream chemistry through time are generally consistent with expectations associated with acidification recovery. Concentration of many stream water solutes (SO₄²⁻, Cl⁻, calcium [Ca²⁺], magnesium [Mg²⁺] and NH₄⁺ generally decreased, while others (silica [SiO₂] and dissolved organic carbon [DOC]) generally increased. Increases were also observed for alkalinity (six of nine catchments), acid neutralizing capacity ([ANC]; six of nine catchments) and pH (eight of nine catchments), while conductivity declined (six of nine catchments). Variability in trends among catchments are associated with differences in surficial geology and wetland cover. While absolute solute concentrations were generally lower at bedrock dominated high-elevation catchments compared to till dominated lower elevation catchments, the rate of change of concentration was often greater for high elevation catchments. This study confirms continued, but non-linear stream chemistry recovery from acidification, particularly at the less buffered high and moderate elevation sites. The heterogeneity of responses among catchments highlights our incomplete understanding of the relative importance of different mechanisms influencing stream chemistry and the consequences for downstream ecosystems.     

Plant Seeds as Model Vectors for the Transfer of Life Through Space

We consider plant seeds as terrestrial models for a vectored life form that could protect biological information in space. Seeds consist of maternal tissue surrounding and protecting an embryo. Some seeds resist deleterious conditions found in space: ultra low vacuum, extreme temperatures and radiation, including intense UV light. In a receptive environment, seeds could liberate a viable embryo, viable higher cells or a viable free-living organism (an endosymbiont or endophyte). Even if viability is lost, seeds still contain functional macro and small molecules (DNA, RNA, proteins, amino acids, lipids, etc.) that could provide the chemical basis for starting or modifying life. The possible release of endophytes or endosymbionts from a seed-like space traveler suggests that multiple domains of life, defined in DNA sequence phylogenies, could be disseminated simultaneously from Earth. We consider the possibility of exospermia, the outward transfer of life, as well as introspermia, the inward transfer of life–both as a contemporary and ancient events.     

Near‐infrared spectroscopy of a hydroecological indicator: new tool for determining sustainable yield for Floridan aquifer system

Pond‐cypress (Taxodium ascendens Brong.) is a dominant canopy species in depressional wetlands of the south‐eastern Coastal Plain. Unsustainable withdrawals from the karst Floridan aquifer system have caused premature decline and death of pond‐cypress trees, presumably owing to altered hydroperiods (which alter the flow of water and nutrients in trees). There has been no scientifically based means to determine sustainable yield from this regional aquifer system or to detect early stages of physical/ecological damage associated with groundwater mining and aquifer storage and recovery (ASR, which also can alter natural hydroperiods). In this study, the relationship between visual symptoms (indicators) of stress or premature decline, and spectral reflectance was evaluated using dried, milled branch tips collected from natural stands of mature pond‐cypress. Depressional systems evaluated represented four of the six aquifer system subregions where subsurface perturbations from groundwater mining: (i) were presumed not to be occurring (reference wetlands); (ii) may be occurring but are not documented; and (iii) have been confirmed. Sampled trees were assigned to one of three stress classes (1, no/minimal; 2, moderate; 3, severe) based on the visual indicators. Partial least squares–linear discriminant analysis of second derivative spectral transformations in the visible/shortwave near‐infrared (NIR) region (400–1100 nm) and the NIR region (1100–2500 nm) was used to evaluate the samples in assigned classes. Class 1 samples were discriminated from combined class 2 and 3 samples in the NIR region with 100% and 97% accuracy for consecutive winter sample periods (before bud‐break). The percentage of correctly classified samples in this spectral region was lower (85%) for summer samples (full leaf‐out). Second‐derivative models for the NIR region developed from the winter data sets predicted assigned classes for alternate winter's samples with an accuracy of 97% and 100%. High correlation between spectral reflectance of dried, milled branch tips collected from mature pond‐cypress in winter and visual indicators of premature decline suggests in situ pond‐cypress are hydroecological indicators of anthropogenic subsurface hydroperiod perturbations. This approach provides objective means for early detection of unsustainable aquifer yield and adverse impacts from ASR activities in the south‐eastern Coastal Plain. Used in conjunction with hydrological monitoring and modelling, the hydroecological indicators should provide the means with which sustainable yield in the south‐eastern Coastal Plain can be achieved and maintained. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Maximum likelihood algorithm for parametric component separation in cosmic microwave background experiments

We discuss an approach to the component separation of microwave, multifrequency sky maps as those typically produced from cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy data sets. The algorithm is based on the two-step, parametric, likelihood-based technique recently elaborated on by Eriksen et al., where the foreground spectral parameters are estimated prior to the actual separation of the components. In contrast with the previous approaches, we accomplish the former task with help of an analytically derived likelihood function for the spectral parameters, which, we show, yields estimates equal to the maximum likelihood values of the full multidimensional data problem. We then use these estimates to perform the second step via the standard, generalized-least-squares-like procedure. We demonstrate that the proposed approach is equivalent to a direct maximization of the full data likelihood, which is recast in a computationally tractable form. We use the corresponding curvature matrices to characterize statistical properties of the recovered parameters. We incorporate in the formalism some of the essential features of the CMB data sets, such as inhomogeneous pixel domain noise, unknown map offsets as well as calibration errors and study their consequences for the separation. We find that the calibration is likely to have a dominant effect on the precision of the spectral parameter determination for a realistic CMB experiment. We apply the algorithm to simulated data and discuss the results. Our focus is on partial sky, total intensity and polarization, CMB experiments such as planned balloon-borne and ground-based efforts, however, the techniques presented here should be also applicable to the full-sky data as for instance, those produced by the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe ( WMAP ) satellite and anticipated from the Planck mission.