On the mechanism of formation of the tyrrhenian sea

We investigated some of the existing hypotheses on the formation of the Tyrrhenian Sea basin, and we found that none of them appears satisfactory. By quantitative considerations we show that proposed mechanisms, such as those based on oceanization or back-arc spreading, cannot explain the origin of this basin. We suggest an alternative mechanism, consisting on the gabbro-eclogite transition, which occurs in the basaltic layer of the continental crust when anomalous mantle contacts the crustal basement. This leads to the formation of eclogite, which tears off the crust, sinks into the astenosphere, and accumulates at its base. As a consequence of the destruction of the basaltic layer the crust is strongly reduced and a deep basin is formed. We also suggest that the processes of crustal thinning and subsidence developed as proposed here at different times in different regions.     

Regional ash fall hazard I: a probabilistic assessment methodology

Volcanic ash is one of the farthest-reaching volcanic hazards and ash produced by large magnitude explosive eruptions has the potential to affect communities over thousands of kilometres. Quantifying the hazard from ash fall is problematic, in part because of data limitations that make eruption characteristics uncertain but also because, given an eruption, the distribution of ash is then controlled by time and altitude-varying wind conditions. Any one location may potentially be affected by ash falls from one, or a number of, volcanoes so that volcano-specific studies may not fully capture the ash fall hazard for communities in volcanically active areas. In an attempt to deal with these uncertainties, this paper outlines a probabilistic framework for assessing ash fall hazard on a regional scale. The methodology employs stochastic simulation techniques and is based upon generic principles that could be applied to any area, but is here applied to the Asia-Pacific region. Average recurrence intervals for eruptions greater than or equal to Volcanic Explosivity Index 4 were established for 190 volcanoes in the region, based upon the eruption history of each volcano and, where data were lacking, the averaged eruptive behaviour of global analogous volcanoes. Eruption histories are drawn from the Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program catalogue of Holocene events and unpublished data, with global analogues taken from volcanoes of the same type category: Caldera, Large Cone, Shield, Lava dome or Small Cone. Simulated are 190,000 plausible eruption scenarios, with ash dispersal for each determined using an advection–diffusion model and local wind conditions. Key uncertainties are described by probability distributions. Modelled results include the annual probability of exceeding given ash thicknesses, summed over all eruption scenarios and volcanoes. A companion paper describes the results obtained for the Asia-Pacific region     

Multi-stage volcanic events: A statistical investigation

Volcanic events comprising multiple eruptive stages are common in the historical and geological record and display activity of variable intensity ranging, in some cases, through to several centuries. To better understand the characteristics of such events globally, this study explores a database of historical events having Volcanic Explosivity Indices 4 or greater. The database was compiled for the most part from published and unpublished material provided by the Smithsonian Institution. The database was examined to find common statistical relationships, within and between the variables characterising multi-stage explosive events.     

Geochemical pattern classification of recent volcanic products from Mt. Etna, Italy, based on Kohonen maps and fuzzy clustering

We present the application of a classification method based on Kohonen maps and fuzzy clustering to geochemical analyses of volcanic products erupted on Mt. Etna from 1995 to 2005. Based on 13 major and trace elements, the classification allows a new way to visualize distinct compositional features of magma both considering long period as well as single eruptive events, such as in 2001 and 2002–03 flank eruptions. Products of the various vents do not necessarily form homogeneous groups, but show clear trends of chemical evolution with time. Using a convenient color code, the graphical visualization of the results in just a single picture allows the rapid identification of the compositional features of each sample and their comparison with all the products analyzed in the 10-year-long time span. This single picture accounts for the mutual interactions of the 13 components avoiding shortcomings of classical low-dimensional plots where components relevant for the discrimination have to be found in a priori study of many diagrams. On the basis of the synoptic information provided by pattern classification, we identify links between the products of different eruptive vents which deliver a reliable picture of a multifaceted plumbing system, in agreement with geochemical and geophysical evidence reported in literature. The analysis of the 13-dimensional data set using the Kohonen maps and fuzzy clustering simultaneously turned out to be straightforward and easy. Accordingly, the results of this application will be useful also as a contextual data set for new data in future ongoing eruptive episodes.     

Evaluation of forecast strategies for seasonal and decadal forecasts in presence of systematic model errors

This study discusses and compares three different strategies used to deal with model error in seasonal and decadal forecasts. The strategies discussed are the so-called full initialisation, anomaly initialisation and flux correction. In the full initialisation the coupled model is initialised to a state close to the real-world attractor and after initialisation the model drifts towards its own attractor, giving rise to model bias. The anomaly initialisation aims to initialise the model close to its own attractor, by initialising only the anomalies. The flux correction strategy aims to keep the model trajectory close to the real-world attractor by adding empirical corrections. These three strategies have been implemented in the ECMWF coupled model, and are evaluated at seasonal and decadal time-scales. The practical implications of the different strategies are also discussed. Results show that full initialisation results in a clear model drift towards a colder climate. The anomaly initialisation is able to reduce the drift, by initialising around the model mean state. However, the erroneous model mean state results in degraded seasonal forecast skill. The best results on the seasonal time-scale are obtained using momentum-flux correction, mainly because it avoids the positive feedback responsible for a strong cold bias in the tropical Pacific. It is likely that these results are model dependent: the coupled model used here shows a strong cold bias in the Central Pacific, resulting from a positive coupled feedback between winds and SST. At decadal time-scales it is difficult to determine whether any of the strategies is superior to the others.