Cyclone Frame Prediction by Gaussian Mixture Modeling of the Three Penultimate Time-Lapse Frames

A fast cyclone frame prediction is proposed in this paper that fits a Gaussian Mixture model on the spatio-temporal data extracted from the three penultimate time-lapse frames, prior to fuzzy regression. Unlike the previous work in Verma and Pal (In: Applied Imagery Pattern Recognition Workshop (AIPR), pp. 1–8, 2010) that models the entire history on a per pixel basis, a single Gaussian mixture is used for fitting the spatio-temporal data within the time-span of the last three frames, making the process faster and more accurate. The increase in accuracy is attributed to the fact that cyclones evolve over time and thus the recent frames give a more meaningful insight into the predictions for the next frame. The number of components in the Gaussian mixture is determined from the occurrence of equally likely modes that correspond to high entropy peaks. Our results on satellite videos of recent cyclones that hit the Indian seas show a high accuracy of frame prediction.     

Mineral dissolution in the Cape Cod aquifer, Massachusetts, USA: I . Reaction stoichiometry and impact of accessory feldspar and glauconite on strontium isotopes, solute concentrations, and REY distribution

To compare relative reaction rates of mineral dissolution in a mineralogically simple groundwater aquifer, we studied the controls on solute concentrations, Sr isotopes, and rare earth element and yttrium (REY) systematics in the Cape Cod aquifer. This aquifer comprises mostly carbonate-free Pleistocene sediments that are about 90% quartz with minor K-feldspar, plagioclase, glauconite, and Fe-oxides. Silica concentrations and pH in the groundwater increase systematically with increasing depth, while Sr isotopic ratios decrease. No clear relationship between ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and Sr concentration is observed. At all depths, the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio of the groundwater is considerably lower than the Sr isotopic ratio of the bulk sediment or its K-feldspar component, but similar to that of a plagioclase-rich accessory separate obtained from the sediment. The Si-⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr-depth relationships are consistent with dissolution of accessory plagioclase. In addition, solutes such as Sr, Ca, and particularly K show concentration spikes superimposed on their respective general trends. The K-Sr-⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr systematics suggests that accessory glauconite is another major solute source to Cape Cod groundwater. Although the authigenic glauconite in the Cape Cod sediment is rich in Rb, it is low in in-grown radiogenic ⁸⁷Sr because of its young Pleistocene age. The low ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios are consistent with equilibration of glauconite with seawater. The impact of glauconite is inferred to vary due to its variable abundance in the sediments. In the Cape Cod groundwater, the variation of REY concentrations with sampling depth resembles that of K and Rb, but differs from that of Ca and Sr. Shale-normalized REY patterns are light REY depleted, show negative Ce anomalies and super-chondritic Y/Ho ratios, but no Eu anomalies. REY input from feldspar, therefore, is insignificant compared to input from a K-Rb-bearing phase, inferred to be glauconite. These results emphasize that interpretation of groundwater chemistry, even in relatively simple aquifers, may be complicated by solute contributions from “exotic” accessory minerals such as glauconite. To detect such peculiarities, groundwater studies should combine the study of elemental concentration and isotopic composition of several solutes that show different geochemical behavior.     

Simulating flash heating in a muffle tube furnace

Abstract— Very rapid heating is an important chondrule-formation process, and it has not been clear whether conventional equipment, such as a muffle tube furnace, is adequate for the simulation of heating on a timescale of seconds. We present a method for measuring the internal temperature reached by a charge during rapid heating when the thermocouple response lags. We have constrained charge temperatures by monitoring the time required to melt metal wires of various compositions and melting points placed inside charges with furnace temperature at 1400, 1500, and 1600 °C. The times required for melting of the metal wires define the temperature paths inside the charges. At 1400 °C, a charge takes 31 s to reach 1399 °C; at 1500 °C, a charge takes 10 s to reach 1495 °C; and at 1600 °C, a charge takes 6 s to reach 1538 °C. Heating rates in vertical muffle tube furnaces are adequate for studying flash melting processes (i.e., of «1 min duration) invoked, for example, in the formation of chondrules.     

Storm rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows from recently burned areas in southwestern Colorado and southern California

Debris flows generated during rain storms on recently burned areas have destroyed lives and property throughout the Western U.S. Field evidence indicate that unlike landslide-triggered debris flows, these events have no identifiable initiation source and can occur with little or no antecedent moisture. Using rain gage and response data from five fires in Colorado and southern California, we document the rainfall conditions that have triggered post-fire debris flows and develop empirical rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for the occurrence of debris flows and floods following wildfires in these settings. This information can provide guidance for warning systems and planning for emergency response in similar settings.Debris flows were produced from 25 recently burned basins in Colorado in response to 13 short-duration, high-intensity convective storms. Debris flows were triggered after as little as six to 10 min of storm rainfall. About 80% of the storms that generated debris flows lasted less than 3 h, with most of the rain falling in less than 1 h. The storms triggering debris flows ranged in average intensity between 1.0 and 32.0 mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows sufficiently large to pose threats to life and property from recently burned areas in south-central, and southwestern, Colorado are defined by: I = 6.5D^− 0.7 and I = 9.5D^− 0.7, respectively, where I = rainfall intensity (in mm/h) and D = duration (in hours).Debris flows were generated from 68 recently burned areas in southern California in response to long-duration frontal storms. The flows occurred after as little as two hours, and up to 16 h, of low-intensity (2–10 mm/h) rainfall. The storms lasted between 5.5 and 33 h, with average intensities between 1.3 and 20.4 mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for life- and property-threatening floods and debris flows during the first winter season following fires in Ventura County, and in the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of southern California are defined by I = 12.5D^−0.4, and I = 7.2D^−0.4, respectively. A threshold defined for flood and debris-flow conditions following a year of vegetative recovery and sediment removal for the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of I = 14.0D^−0.5 is approximately 25 mm/h higher than that developed for the first year following fires.The thresholds defined here are significantly lower than most identified for unburned settings, perhaps because of the difference between extremely rapid, runoff-dominated processes acting in burned areas and longer-term, infiltration-dominated processes on unburned hillslopes.     

SPATIAL PATTERNS OF SUPPORT FOR A NUCLEAR WEAPONS FREEZE*

Support for a Freeze on nuclear weapons is greatest in the East with pockets of support in the Middle West and Pacific Coast States. Factors influencing the spatial pattern are Walker's innovativeness rankings, the number of peace/Freeze activist groups and the pattern of defense employment.     

Recent advances in offshore geotechnics for deep water oil and gas developments

The paper presents an overview of recent developments in geotechnical analysis and design associated with oil and gas developments in deep water. Typically the seabed in deep water comprises soft, lightly overconsolidated, fine grained sediments, which must support a variety of infrastructure placed on the seabed or anchored to it. A particular challenge is often the mobility of the infrastructure either during installation or during operation, and the consequent disturbance and healing of the seabed soil, leading to changes in seabed topography and strength. Novel aspects of geotechnical engineering for offshore facilities in these conditions are reviewed, including: new equipment and techniques to characterise the seabed; yield function approaches to evaluate the capacity of shallow skirted foundations; novel anchoring systems for moored floating facilities; pipeline and steel catenary riser interaction with the seabed; and submarine slides and their impact on infrastructure. Example results from sophisticated physical and numerical modelling are presented.     

High-resolution seafloor mapping using the DSL-120 sonar system: Quantitative assessment of sidescan and phase-bathymetry data from the Lucky Strike segment of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge

High-resolution, side-looking sonar data collected near the seafloor (100 m altitude) provide important structural and topographic information for defining the geological history and current tectonic framework of seafloor terrains. DSL-120 kHz sonar data collected in the rift valley of the Lucky Strike segment of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge near 37° N provide the ability to quantitatively assess the effective resolution limits of both the sidescan imagery and the computed phase-bathymetry of this sonar system. While the theoretical, vertical and horizontal pixel resolutions of the DSL-120 system are <1 m, statistical analysis of DSL-120 sonar data collected from the Lucky Strike segment indicates that the effective spatial resolution of features is 1–2 m for sidescan imagery and 4 m for phase-bathymetry in the seafloor terrain of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge rift valley. Comparison of multibeam bathymetry data collected at the sea-surface with deep-tow DSL-120 bathymetry indicates that depth differences are on the order of the resolution of the multibeam system (10–30 m). Much of this residual can be accounted for by navigational mismatches and the higher resolving ability of the DSL-120 data, which has a bathymetric footprint on the seafloor that is 20 times smaller than that of hull-mounted multibeam at these seafloor depths (2000 m). Comparison of DSL-120 bathymetry with itself on crossing lines indicates that residual depth values are ±20 m, with much of that variation being accounted for by navigational errors. A DSL-120 survey conducted in 1998 on the Juan de Fuca Ridge with better navigation and less complex seafloor terrain had residual depth values half those of the Lucky Strike survey. The quality of the bathymetry data varies as a function of position within the swath, with poorer data directly beneath the tow vehicle and also towards the swath edges.Variations in sidescan amplitude observed across the rift valley and on Lucky Strike Seamount correlate well with changes in seafloor roughness caused by transitions from sedimented seafloor to bare rock outcrops. Distinct changes in sonar backscatter amplitude were also observed between areas covered with hydrothermal pavement that grade into lava flows and the collapsed surface of the lava lake in the summit depression of Lucky Strike Seamount. Small features on the seafloor, including volcanic constructional features (e.g., small cones, haystacks, fissures and collapse features) and hydrothermal vent chimneys or mounds taller than 2 m and greater than 9 m² in surface area, can easily be resolved and mapped using this system. These features at Lucky Strike have been confirmed visually using the submersible Alvin, the remotely operated vehicle Jason, and the towed optical/acoustic mapping system Argo II.