Modeling of marine litter drift and beaching in the Japan Sea

Characteristics of drift and beaching of floating marine litter in the Japan Sea are examined numerically using the reanalysis data of the Japan Sea Forecasting System of Kyushu University. The residence time of model marine litter deployed uniformly over the surface of the Japan Sea strongly depends on the buoyancy ratio. However, almost all litter beaches or flows out through straits within 3 years. Experiments with inputs of litter imposed at large cities and the Tsushima Straits as well as river basins of the Japan Sea exhibit a good agreement with beach surveys with regard to country ratios of beached litter along the Japanese coast in cases of lighters. In a case of lighter, almost all lighters originating from Japan beach along the Japanese coast, while almost all lighters originating from a country surrounding the Japan Sea except Japan beach along the coast of that country and the Japanese coast.     

Practically Applicable Central Limit Theorem for Spatial Statistics

Let {Z(s):s∈D⊆ℝ ^d } be a zero mean stationary random field observed at a finite number of locations. Lahiri (Sankhya Ser. A 65:356–388, 2003) proved spatial central limit theorems (CLT) for ∑ _i=1 ⁿ Z(s _i ) assuming a ‘nearly infill domain sampling’. Applications of his results depended on the underlying spatial sampling region and the design in a complicated fashion. The main objective of this paper is to provide CLTs that could be applied easily in practice. We present two main results assuming a ‘nearly infill domain sampling’ defined mainly in terms of dependence. Theorem 1 establishes a CLT for ∑ _i=1 ⁿ Z(s _i ) and Theorem 2 is obtained mainly for applications to density estimates. We report on a simulation study for illustrating a way of applying our results in practice.     

Structure of Eigenvalues in the Advection-Diffusion Equation by the Spectral Element Method on a Cubed-Sphere Grid

To fundamentally understand discretized equations and differential operators, this study investigates the eigenvalues of the spherical gradient matrix and spherical Laplacian matrix discretized by the spectral element method (SEM) on the cubed-sphere grid (CS) for solid-body rotation. The gradient matrix with prescribed wind for the solid-body rotation has small positive real numbers in the eigenvalues, which implies that the solutions of the advection equation for solid-body rotation can be unstable and distorted. However, the unstable model can be effectively controlled by the Laplacian matrix, and all eigenvalues of the Laplacian matrix are aligned along the negative part of the real axis. The maximum eigenvalues of the gradient matrix and Laplacian matrix exhibit the characteristic of a linear function of the resolution, which is important to determine the upper limit of the time-step size for stable time integration. This study suggests suitable e-folding time scale of the diffusion using the 6th order for applications of the advection-diffusion equation. Regarding the characteristics of the eigenvalues, the setting of the stable time step is discussed. A method to implement the diffusion operators in the third-order Runge-Kutta time integration scheme in the advection-diffusion model is also discussed.     

On Climate Variations and Changes Observed in South Korea

This study describes observations on possible climate changes occurring on the Korean Peninsula. We found that in large urban and industrial areas in Korea, there has been a significant increase in the annual mean temperatures according to data of the past 29 years. The increase in January temperatures was in the order of 0.8 ～ 2.4 ° C. However, in rural and marine stations, the increase in annual mean temperature was 0.6 ° C; the level of the global average. There was also an increase in precipitation: 259 mm over the recent 97 years. Observation has revealed that a month-long steady rainfall in late June and July with a quasi-stationary polar front has not occurred in recent years and has been replaced with scattered convective heavy-showers on a local scale in July and August. It is observed that the behaviour of this rainy front, `the Changma front' has brought changes to rainfall characteristics. Our results highlight the importance of the shortened rainy season. However, the amount of rainfall and the number of heavy rainfall days have increased.     

A regional climate change simulation over East Asia

In this study, regional climate changes for seventy years (1980–2049) over East Asia and the Korean Peninsula are investigated using the Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES) B1 scenario via a high-resolution regional climate model, and the impact of global warming on extreme climate events over the study area is investigated. According to future climate predictions for East Asia, the annual mean surface air temperature increases by 1.8°C and precipitation decreases by 0.2 mm day^?1 (2030–2049). The maximum wind intensity of tropical cyclones increases in the high wind categories, and the intra-seasonal variation of tropical cyclone occurrence changes in the western North Pacific. The predicted increase in surface air temperature results from increased longwave radiations at the surface. The predicted decrease in precipitation is caused primarily by northward shift of the monsoon rain-band due to the intensified subtropical high. In the nested higher-resolution (20 km) simulation over the Korean Peninsula, annual mean surface air temperature increases by 1.5°C and annual mean precipitation decreases by 0.2 mm day^?1. Future surface air temperature over the Korean Peninsula increases in all seasons due to surface temperature warming, which leads to changes in the length of the four seasons. Future total precipitation over the Korean Peninsula is decreased, but the intensity and occurrence of heavy precipitation events increases. The regional climate changes information from this study can be used as a fruitful reference in climate change studies over East Asia and the Korean peninsula.     

A global non-hydrostatic dynamical core using the spectral element method on a cubed-sphere grid

A new global model with a non-hydrostatic (NH) dynamical core is developed. It employs the spectral element method (SEM) in the horizontal discretization and the finite difference method (FDM) in the vertical discretization. The solver includes a time-split third-order Runge-Kutta (RK3) time-integration technique. Pursuing the quasi-uniform and pole singularity-free spherical geometry, a cubed-sphere grid is employed. To assess the performance of the developed dynamical solver, the results from a number of idealized benchmark tests for hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic flows are presented and compared. The results indicate that the non-hydrostatic dynamical solver is able to produce solutions with good accuracy and consistency comparable to reference solutions. Further evaluation of the model with a full-physics package demonstrates its capability in reproducing heavy rainfall over the Korean Peninsula, which confirms that coupling of the dynamical solver and full-physics package is robust.     

Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from atmospheric global circulation models

Understanding the historical and future response of the global climate system to anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active atmospheric constituents has become a timely and compelling concern. At present, however, there are uncertainties in: the total radiative forcing associated with changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere; the effective forcing applied to the climate system resulting from a (temporary) reduction via ocean-heat uptake; and the strength of the climate feedbacks that subsequently modify this forcing. Here a set of analyses derived from atmospheric general circulation model simulations are used to estimate the effective and total radiative forcing of the observed climate system due to anthropogenic emissions over the last 50 years of the twentieth century. They are also used to estimate the sensitivity of the observed climate system to these emissions, as well as the expected change in global surface temperatures once the climate system returns to radiative equilibrium. Results indicate that estimates of the effective radiative forcing and total radiative forcing associated with historical anthropogenic emissions differ across models. In addition estimates of the historical sensitivity of the climate to these emissions differ across models. However, results suggest that the variations in climate sensitivity and total climate forcing are not independent, and that the two vary inversely with respect to one another. As such, expected equilibrium temperature changes, which are given by the product of the total radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, are relatively constant between models, particularly in comparison to results in which the total radiative forcing is assumed constant. Implications of these results for projected future climate forcings and subsequent responses are also discussed.     

A numerical study of the effect of frozen soil on dust emission during an East Asian dust event in December 2009

There are few dust simulation studies for East Asian dust events that took place in the wintertime, when the surface conditions of the dust source region differ from those of the springtime. The soil water turns into ice when the temperature falls below freezing, and the ice might prohibit wind erosion by increasing the binding strength between soil particles. However, the contribution of frozen soil to reducing dust outbreaks remains unclear. This study investigates the effect of frozen soil on dust emission through a case study of a severe wintertime East Asian dust event that originated on 23 and 24 December 2009 in Southern Mongolia and Inner Mongolia and reached Korea on 25 and 26 December 2009 using WRF/Chem with a new dust emission scheme. Model simulations with and without the effect of frozen soil were conducted. A temperature below 0°C and relative soil saturation exceeding 40% were used for frozen soil criteria, and the frozen soil was prohibited from emitting dust. The dust concentrations derived from the simulation without the effect of frozen soil were about three times higher than the observed PM₁₀ concentrations, while the results from the simulation with the frozen-soil effect were quite similar to those of the observation data. The simulation of the wintertime East Asian dust event with the frozen-soil effect improved the model representation. The sensitivity tests for frozen soil indicate that the criteria of frozen soil used in this study are appropriate for this case study.     

Effects of surface forces and film elasticity on foam stability

The thin film pressure balance (TFPB) technique was used to determine the surface forces in foam films stabilized with flotation frothers such as n-pentanol, n-octanol, methyl isobutyl carbinol (MIBC), and polypropylene glycol (PPG). The results were compared with the foam stabilities measured experimentally and the film elasticities calculated using a model developed by Wang and Yoon [Wang, L., Yoon, R.-H., 2006a. Role of hydrophobic force in the thinning of foam films containing a nonionic surfactant. Colloids Surfaces A: Physicochem. Eng. Aspects, 282–283, 84–91.]. It was found that foam stabilities are controlled by both film elasticity and disjoining pressure, the relative contributions from each changing with frother type and concentration. At relatively low concentrations, frother dampens the hydrophobic force, an attractive component of the disjoining pressure, that destabilizes foams. At higher concentrations, elasticity plays a more important role in stabilizing foams.