The use of in-situ cosmogenic <Superscript>21</Superscript>Ne in studies on long-term landscape development

Cosmogenic Ne isotopes are stable and are routinely used for constraining the timing of events and the rate of surface change beyond the limit that can be studied with radionuclides ¹⁰Be, ²⁶Al, and ³⁶Cl. Cosmogenic Ne analysis can be used in quartz and in a range of other minerals. Analysis typically requires significantly less material than do cosmogenic ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al, opening up the technique for small samples—individual pebbles in river sediments, for example. Analysis is easier and faster than for radionuclides, not least because Ne measurements do not require significant chemical procedures. However, the presence of other sources of Ne in minerals tends to restrict the use of cosmogenic ²¹Ne to old landscapes and long exposure durations. In this review we briefly outline the background of cosmogenic Ne production in rocks and minerals at the Earth’s surface, then document the key uses of the technique by highlighting some earlier studies, and finish with a short perspective on the future of the technique.     

Porosity preservation due to grain coating illite/smectite: Evidence from Buchan Formation (Upper Devonian) of the Ardmore Field,UK North Sea

The Buchan Formation sandstone reservoirs from the Ardmore Field in the UK Central North Sea are fluvial-aeolian deposits and provide examples of porosity preservation in deeply-buried reservoirs (2.7–3.2?km) caused by grain-coating illite/smectite (I/S). Here, high reservoir quality commonly correlates with the occurrence of grain-coating I/S and consequent inhibition of quartz cementation in the aeolian dune and interdune sandstones. Porosity is lower in fluvial sandstones lacking grain coating I/S but with intense quartz overgrowths. We propose that the presence of I/S reflects concentration of the smectitic-rich clay bearing water which would have been the deposits of the interdune and/or distal sector of fluvial distributary system, and were introduced into aeolian deposits by mechanical infiltration. Petrographic relationships indicate that these coatings grew mainly before the mechanical compaction as the clays occur at grain contacts. The use of empirical model suggested that about 6–7% porosity have been preserved. The burial-thermal history of the Ardmore area contributed to the high quality reservoir because throughout much of the time since deposition, the Devonian sandstones have been little buried. Only from the Palaeogene the reservoir temperatures exceeded about 70?°C and rapidly buried to today’s maximum depth, which have minimized the negative effect generally ascribed to smectitic clays on reservoir quality. The circumstances of porosity preservation shown in this study may be unusual, but nonetheless have profound consequences for exploration. It is possible to identify new Buchan Formation prospects in areas hitherto dismissed because they were generally assumed to be poor reservoir.     

When citizens choose not to participate in volunteering geographic information to e-governance: a case study from Mexico

Citizen participation is a crucial democratic practice in many western societies. In contemporary societies, different social agents utilise information and communication technology using Internet-based systems, to establish two-way communication in order to promote citizen participation. One such approach is volunteered geographical information (VGI). It is considered that VGI provides a new space for citizen engagement, as well as an arena for political contestation, however little attention has been paid to the reasons, drivers and limitations for voluntary citizen participation. Although there is an extensive literature on both VGI and citizen participation, this rarely considers how much citizen participation is necessary to run a VGI platform, what are the drivers for non-participation, and what happens within a democratic political space when citizens are apparently not interested to participate with a VGI deployment These topics are explored in this paper, through the lens of a particular case study of a University deployment for VGI developed in Mexico and a wider analysis of other VGI deployments taken from the literature. By critically assessing the extent to which the VGI deployments have enabled citizen participation, and the degree and quality of this participation, we draw conclusions as to how far and under what circumstances VGI can support government agencies to engage citizens in a meaningful dialogue as part of democratic governance initiatives. This leads us to identify key areas for further research by geographers and related social scientists exploring these socio-technical systems and their effects on democratic societies.     

美国内布拉斯加州林肯市犯罪行为的聚类及热点分布分析

抢劫和入室盗窃犯罪行为是日常生活中最长见的违法行为,而这两种违法行为的发生有一定的规律可循。例如抢劫行为主要发生在市中心、CBD和商业中心的人群、商铺密集区域,而入室盗窃则多发生于生活社区及其周边地带。然而,想要防范这两种犯罪行为需要根据实际情况进行分析和比对,结合分析结果提出准确合理的警力部署。美国内布拉斯加州林肯市警察局针对该市抢劫和入室盗窃犯罪行为高发的情况,需要针对具体分析结果对于警力进行部署,主要针对徒步巡逻和是否需要对住户进行入户警示进行分析,根据分析结果进行具体部署。本文中使用的分析方法为紧邻层空间聚类分析(NNH)和针对犯罪的空间和时间分析法(SPAC),分别对林肯市入室行窃和抢劫的数据进行分析并尝试将两种方法进行对比以便给出更加科学的分析报告。     

Scientists' warning on extreme wildfire risks to water supply

2020 is the year of wildfire records. California experienced its three largest fires early in its fire season. The Pantanal, the largest wetland on the planet, burned over 20% of its surface. More than 18 million hectares of forest and bushland burned during the 2019–2020 fire season in Australia, killing 33 people, destroying nearly 2500 homes, and endangering many endemic species. The direct cost of damages is being counted in dozens of billion dollars, but the indirect costs on water-related ecosystem services and benefits could be equally expensive, with impacts lasting for decades. In Australia, the extreme precipitation (“200 mm day −1 in several location”) that interrupted the catastrophic wildfire season triggered a series of watershed effects from headwaters to areas downstream. The increased runoff and erosion from burned areas disrupted water supplies in several locations. These post-fire watershed hazards via source water contamination, flash floods, and mudslides can represent substantial, systemic long-term risks to drinking water production, aquatic life, and socio-economic activity. Scenarios similar to the recent event in Australia are now predicted to unfold in the Western USA. This is a new reality that societies will have to live with as uncharted fire activity, water crises, and widespread human footprint collide all-around of the world. Therefore, we advocate for a more proactive approach to wildfire-watershed risk governance in an effort to advance and protect water security. We also argue that there is no easy solution to reducing this risk and that investments in both green (i.e., natural) and grey (i.e., built) infrastructure will be necessary. Further, we propose strategies to combine modern data analytics with existing tools for use by water and land managers worldwide to leverage several decades worth of data and knowledge on post-fire hydrology.     

Daily accumulation rates of marine debris on sub-Antarctic island beaches

The worlds’ oceans contain a large but unknown amount of plastic debris. We made daily collections of marine debris stranded at two sub-Antarctic islands to establish (a) physical causes of strandings, and (b) a sampling protocol to better estimate the oceans’ plastic loading. Accumulation rates at some beaches were dependent on tide and onshore winds. Most of the 6389 items collected were plastic (Macquarie 95%, Heard 94%) and discarded or lost fishing gear comprised 22% of those plastic items. Stalked barnacles (Lepas spp.) were a regular attachment on Macquarie debris but not at Heard Island. The daily accumulation rate of plastic debris on Macquarie Island was an order of magnitude higher than that estimated from monthly surveys during the same 4 months in the previous 5 years. This finding suggests that estimates of the oceans’ plastic loading are an order of magnitude too low.     

21st century climate change: where has all the geomorphology gone?

This Commentary draws together recently published work relating to the relationship between climate change and geomorphology to address the surprising observation that geomorphic work seems to have had little impact upon the work of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. However, recent papers show that methodological innovation has allowed geomorphological reconstruction over timescales highly relevant to late 20th century and 21st century climate change. In turn, these and other developments are allowing links to be made between climatic variability and geomorphology, to begin to predict ‘geomorphic futures’ and also to appreciate the role that geomorphic processes play in the flux of carbon and the carbon cycle. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tsunami inundation in Napier, New Zealand, due to local earthquake sources

Deterministic analysis of local tsunami generated by subduction zone earthquakes demonstrates the potential for extensive inundation and building damage in Napier, New Zealand. We present the first high-resolution assessments of tsunami inundation in Napier based on full simulation from tsunami generation to inundation and demonstrate the potential variability of onshore impacts due to local earthquakes. In the most extreme scenario, rupture of the whole Hikurangi subduction margin, maximum onshore flow depth exceeds 8.0 m within 200 m of the shore and exceeds 5.0 m in the city centre, with high potential for major damage to buildings. Inundation due to single-segment or splay fault rupture is relatively limited despite the magnitudes of M_W 7.8 and greater. There is approximately 30 min available for evacuation of the inundation zone following a local rupture, and inundation could reach a maximum extent of 4 km. The central city is inundated by up to three waves, and Napier Port could be inundated repeatedly for 12 h. These new data on potential flow depth, arrival time and flow kinematics provide valuable information for tsunami education, exposure analysis and evacuation planning.     

Evaluation of Gaussian approximations for data assimilation in reservoir models

The Bayesian framework is the standard approach for data assimilation in reservoir modeling. This framework involves characterizing the posterior distribution of geological parameters in terms of a given prior distribution and data from the reservoir dynamics, together with a forward model connecting the space of geological parameters to the data space. Since the posterior distribution quantifies the uncertainty in the geologic parameters of the reservoir, the characterization of the posterior is fundamental for the optimal management of reservoirs. Unfortunately, due to the large-scale highly nonlinear properties of standard reservoir models, characterizing the posterior is computationally prohibitive. Instead, more affordable ad hoc techniques, based on Gaussian approximations, are often used for characterizing the posterior distribution. Evaluating the performance of those Gaussian approximations is typically conducted by assessing their ability at reproducing the truth within the confidence interval provided by the ad hoc technique under consideration. This has the disadvantage of mixing up the approximation properties of the history matching algorithm employed with the information content of the particular observations used, making it hard to evaluate the effect of the ad hoc approximations alone. In this paper, we avoid this disadvantage by comparing the ad hoc techniques with a fully resolved state-of-the-art probing of the Bayesian posterior distribution. The ad hoc techniques whose performance we assess are based on (1) linearization around the maximum a posteriori estimate, (2) randomized maximum likelihood, and (3) ensemble Kalman filter-type methods. In order to fully resolve the posterior distribution, we implement a state-of-the art Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that scales well with respect to the dimension of the parameter space, enabling us to study realistic forward models, in two space dimensions, at a high level of grid refinement. Our implementation of the MCMC method provides the gold standard against which the aforementioned Gaussian approximations are assessed. We present numerical synthetic experiments where we quantify the capability of each of the ad hoc Gaussian approximation in reproducing the mean and the variance of the posterior distribution (characterized via MCMC) associated to a data assimilation problem. Both single-phase and two-phase (oil–water) reservoir models are considered so that fundamental differences in the resulting forward operators are highlighted. The main objective of our controlled experiments was to exhibit the substantial discrepancies of the approximation properties of standard ad hoc Gaussian approximations. Numerical investigations of the type we present here will lead to the greater understanding of the cost-efficient, but ad hoc, Bayesian techniques used for data assimilation in petroleum reservoirs and hence ultimately to improved techniques with more accurate uncertainty quantification.