Helium isotopes in early Iceland plume picrites: Constraints on the composition of high 3He/4He mantle

A detailed study of the geochemistry of a new suite of early Iceland plume picrites shows that extremely high ³He/⁴He ratios (up to 50 R_a) are found in picrites from Baffin Island and West Greenland. High ³He/⁴He picrites display a wide range in ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (0.70288–0.70403), ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd (0.51288–0.51308) and incompatible trace element ratios (e.g. La/Sm_n = 0.5–1.6). These overlap the complete range of compositions of mid-ocean ridge basalts and most northern hemisphere ocean island basalts, including Iceland. Crustal contamination modelling in which high-grade Proterozoic crustal basement rocks for the region are mixed with a depleted parent cannot account for the trend displayed by the Baffin Island and West Greenland picrites. This rules out the possibility that the incompatible trace element, Sr and Nd isotope range of the high ³He/⁴He picrites is due to crustal contamination. The compositional range at high ³He/⁴He is also inconsistent with derivation from a primordial-He-rich reservoir that is a residue of ancient mantle depletion. This implies that the composition of the high ³He/⁴He mantle cannot be determined simply by extrapolating ocean island basalt He–Sr–Nd–Pb–Os isotope data.The apparent decoupling of He from trace element and lithophile radiogenic isotope tracers is difficult to attain by simple mixing of a high-[He], high ³He/⁴He reservoir with various depleted and enriched He-poor mantle reservoirs. The possibility that primordial He has diffused into a reservoir with a composition typical of convecting upper mantle cannot be ruled out. If so, the process must have occurred after the development of existing mantle heterogeneity, and requires the existence of a deep, primordial He-rich reservoir.     

Assessment of rainfall‐runoff models based upon wavelet analysis

A basic hypothesis is proposed: given that wavelet‐based analysis has been used to interpret runoff time‐series, it may be extended to evaluation of rainfall‐runoff model results. Conventional objective functions make certain assumptions about the data series to which they are applied (e.g. uncorrelated error, homoscedasticity). The difficulty that objective functions have in distinguishing between different realizations of the same model, or different models of the same system, is that they may have contributed in part to the occurrence of model equifinality. Of particular concern is the fact that the error present in a rainfall‐runoff model may be time dependent, requiring some form of time localization in both identification of error and derivation of global objective functions. We explore the use of a complex Gaussian (order 2) wavelet to describe: (1) a measured hydrograph; (2) the same hydrograph with different simulated errors introduced; and (3) model predictions of the same hydrograph based upon a modified form of TOPMODEL. The analysis of results was based upon: (a) differences in wavelet power (the wavelet power error) between the measured hydrograph and both the simulated error and modelled hydrographs; and (b) the wavelet phase. Power difference and wavelet phase were used to develop two objective functions, RMSE(power) and RMS(phase), which were shown to distinguish between simulated errors and model predictions with similar values of the commonly adopted Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency index. These objective functions suffer because they do not retain time, frequency or time‐frequency localization. Consideration of wavelet power spectra and time‐ and frequency‐integrated power spectra shows that the impacts of different types of simulated error can be seen through retention of some localization, especially in relation to when and the scale over which error was manifest. Theoretical objections to the use of wavelet analysis for this type of application are noted, especially in relation to the dependence of findings upon the wavelet chosen. However, it is argued that the benefits of localization and the qualitatively low sensitivity of wavelet power and phase to wavelet choice are sufficient to warrant further exploration of wavelet‐based approaches to rainfall‐runoff model evaluation. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probable effects of heat advection on the adjacent environment during oil production at Prudhoe Bay, Alaska

The latest available data for mean annual air temperature at sites away from the Arctic coast in both Alaska and the Yukon Territory show no significant warming in the last 30~50 years. However, around the Arctic coast of northwest North America centered on Prudhoe Bay, the weather stations show significant warming of both the air and the ocean water, resulting in substantial losses in sea ice west of Prudhoe Bay. These changes appeared shortly after the commencement of shipment of oil through the Trans-Alaska Pipeline in 1977, but have now reached a quasi-stable thermal state. Since more than 17 trillion barrels of oil have passed through the pipeline after being cooled by the adjacent air, which in turn, can then result in the melting of the adjacent sea ice, there appears to be a very strong relationship between these events, and a marked lack of correlation with the changes of the content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This contrasts with the IPCC interpretation of the available climatic data, which assumes that the maximum climatic warming at Prudhoe Bay is typical of the entire region and is the result of increasing greenhouse gases. Engineers need to consider heat advection by oil or gas from underground when designing pipeline facilities, and to take account of the potential environmental consequences that they may cause.     

Shear-wave polarizations near the North Anatolian Fault – I. Evidence for anisotropy-induced shear-wave splitting

Summary. The Turkish Dilatancy Projects (TDP1 in 1979 and TDP2 in 1980) recorded small earthquakes near the North Anatolian Fault with closely-spaced networks of three-component seismometers in order to investigate the possibility of diagnosing dilatancy from its effects of shear-wave propagation. This paper examines the polarizations of shear wavetrains recorded in the shear-wave window immediately above the earthquake foci. Abrupt changes in the orientation and/or ellipticity of the shear-wave polarizations are almost always observed during the first few cycles following the initial shear-wave arrival on each seismogram. The horizontal projections of the polarizations of the first shear-wave arrivals at any given station show nearly parallel alignments with approximately the same orientations at each of the recording sites (with one exception). It is difficult to explain this uniform alignment over a wide area in terms of scattering at the irregular surface topography or by earthquake focal mechanisms. We demonstrate that the shear-wave splitting is likely to be the result of anisotropy in the region above the earthquake foci, which could produce polarizations displaying the observed alignments. The temporal change of the azimuth of alignment, observed at one locality between 1979 and 1980, may be due to the release of a local stress anomaly by a very near earthquake.     

Microearthquakes in the TDP swarm, Turkey: clustering in space and time

Summary. The third occupation (experiment TDP3) of recording sites above a persistent swarm of microearthquakes near the North Anatolian Fault, with a larger seismic network and over a longer period of time, confirms and refines previous observations with greater resolution. The greater resolution in earthquake locations has revealed marked clustering in time and space. Many, perhaps most, of the earthquakes belong to clusters, where successive earthquakes originate in a very small volume and have similar fault mechanisms. Such studies allow the progression of seismic activity of small earthquakes to be followed in some detail, and may reveal features which are hidden in larger and more complex earthquake sequences.