Modelling the compliance of crustal rock—II. Response to temporal changes before earthquakes

There have been several claims that seismic shear waves respond to changes in stress before earthquakes. The companion paper develops a stress-sensitive model (APE) for the behaviour of low-porosity low-permeability crystalline rocks containing pervasive distributions of fluid-filled intergranular microcracks, and this paper uses APE to model the behaviour before earthquakes. Modelling with APE shows that the microgeometry and statistics of distributions of such fluid-filled microcracks respond almost immediately to changes in stress, and that the behaviour can be monitored by analysing seismic shear-wave splitting. The physical reasons for the coupling between shear-wave splitting and differential stress are discussed.
In this paper, we extend the model by using percolation theory to show that large crack densities are limited at the grain-scale level by the percolation threshold at which interacting crack clusters lead to pronounced increases in rock-matrix permeability. In the simplest formulation, the modelling is dimensionless and almost entirely constrained without free parameters. Nevertheless, APE modelling of the evolution of fluid-saturated rocks under stress reproduces the observed fracture criticality and the narrow range of shear-wave azimuthal anisotropy in crustal rocks. It also reproduces the behaviour of temporal variations in shear-wave splitting observed before and after the 1986, M = 6, North Palm Springs earthquake, Southern California, and several other smaller earthquakes.
The agreement of APE modelling with a wide range of observations confirms that fluid-saturated crystalline rocks are stress-sensitive and respond to changes in stress by critical fluid-rock interactions at the microscale level. This means that the effects of changes in stress and other parameters can be numerically modelled and monitored by appropriate observations of seismic shear waves.     

Shear-wave anisotropy: spatial and temporal variations in time delays at Parkfield, Central California

Shear-wave splitting is analysed on data recorded by the High Resolution Seismic Network (HRSN) at Parkfield on the San Andreas fault, Central California, during the three-year period 1988-1990. Shear-wave polarizations either side of the fault are generally aligned in directions consistent with the regional horizontal maximum compressive stress, at some 70° to the fault strike, whereas at station MM in the immediate fault zone, shear-wave polarizations are aligned approximately parallel to the fault. Normalized time delays at this station are found to be about twice as large as those in the rock mass either side. This suggests that fluid-filled cracks and fractures within the fault zone are elastically or seismically different from those in the surrounding rocks, and that the alignment of fault-parallel shear-wave polarizations are associated with some fault-specific phenomenon.
Temporal variations in time delays between the two split shear-waves before and after a M_L = 4 earthquake can be identified at two stations with sufficient data: MM within the fault zone and VC outside the immediate fault zone. Time delays between faster and slower split shear waves increase before the M_L = 4 earthquake and decrease near the time of the event. The temporal variations are statistically significant at 68 per cent confidence levels. Earthquake doublets and multiplets also show similar temporal variations, consistent with those predicted by anisotropic poroelasticity theory for stress modifications to the microcrack geometry pervading the rock mass. This study is broadly consistent with the behaviour observed before three other earthquakes, suggesting that the build-up of stress before earthquakes may be monitored and interpreted by the analysis of shear-wave splitting.     

Methods for the visualization of digital elevation models for landform mapping

Digital elevation models (DEMs) are increasingly used for landform mapping, particularly with the growing availability of national and global datasets. In this paper we describe a variety of techniques that can visualize a DEM. We then compare five techniques to ascertain which performs the most complete and unbiased visualization. We assess the visualization techniques by comparing landforms mapped from them against a detailed morphological map (derived from mapping of multi‐azimuth relief‐shaded DEMs cross‐checked with stereo aerial photographs). Results show that no single visualization method provides complete and unbiased mapping. The relief‐shaded visualizations are particularly prone to azimuth biasing, although they can highlight subtle landforms. We recommend curvature visualization for initial mapping as this provides a non‐illuminated (and therefore unbiased) image. Initial mapping can then be supplemented with data from relief‐shaded visualizations. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A three-dimensional approach to fault seal analysis: fault-block juxtaposition & argillaceous smear modelling

Three‐dimensional (3D) numerical modelling of fault displacement enables the building of geological models to represent the complex 3D geometry and geological properties of faulted sedimentary basins. Using these models, cross‐fault juxtaposition relationships are predicted in 3D space and through time, based on the geometries of strata that are cut by faults. Forward modelling of fault development allows a 3D prediction of fault‐zone argillaceous smear using a 3D application of the Shale Gouge Ratio. Numerical models of the Artemis Field, Southern North Sea, UK and the Moab Fault, Utah, USA are used to demonstrate the developed techniques and compare them to traditional one‐ and two‐dimensional solutions. These examples demonstrate that a 3D analysis leads to significant improvements in the prediction of fault seal, the analysis of the interaction of the sealing properties of multiple faults, and the interpretation of fault seal within the context of sedimentary basin geometry.     

Discrete-element modelling of detachment folding

A two‐dimensional, discrete‐element modelling technique is used to investigate the initiation and growth of detachment folds in sedimentary rocks above a weak décollement level. The model depicts the sedimentary rocks as an assemblage of spheres that obey Newton's equations of motion and that interact with elastic forces under the influence of gravity. Faulting or fracturing between neighbouring elements is represented by a transition from repulsive–attractive forces to solely repulsive forces. The sedimentary sequence is mechanically heterogeneous, consisting of intercalated layers of markedly different strengths and thicknesses. The interlayering of weak and strong layers within the sedimentary rocks promotes the localization of flexural flow deformation within the weak layers. Even with simple displacement boundary conditions, and straightforward interlayering of weak and strong layers, the structural geometries that develop are complex, with a combination of box, lift‐off and disharmonic detachment fold styles forming above the décollement. In detail, it is found that the modelled folds grow by both limb rotation and limb lengthening. The combination of these two mechanisms results in uplift patterns above the folds that are difficult, or misleading, to interpret in terms of simple kinematic models. Comparison of modelling results with natural examples and with kinematic models highlights the complexities of structural interpretation in such settings.     

Multi‐year water balance assessment of a newly constructed wetland,Fort McMurray,Alberta

Oil sands mining in Alberta transforms the boreal landscape of forests and wetlands into open pits, tailings ponds and overburden piles. Whereas reclamation efforts have primarily focused on upland forests, rebuilding wetland systems has recently become a motivation for research. Wetland creation and sustainability in this region is complicated by the sub‐humid climate and salinity of underlying mining material. In 2012, Syncrude Canada Ltd. completed the construction of the Sandhill Fen Watershed (SFW), a 52‐ha upland‐wetland system to evaluate wetland reclamation strategies on soft tailings. SFW includes an active pumping system, upland hummocks, a fen wetland and underdrains. To evaluate the influence of management practices on the hydrology of the system, this study reports the water balance from January 2013 to December 2014, the first 2 years after commissioning. A semi‐distributed approach was taken to examine the fluxes and stores of water in uplands and lowlands. Natural and artificial inputs and outputs were measured using a series of precipitation gauges and pumps, and evapotranspiration was quantified using three eddy covariance towers. A series of near surface wells recorded water table position. Both 2013 and 2014 were normal rainfall years, with 2013 having more and 2014 less snow than normal. In 2013, inflow/outflow from pumping was the predominant hydrological fluxes, resulting in considerable variability in water table position and storage changes throughout the summer. In 2014, the artificial addition of water was negligible, yet the water table remained near the surface in lowland locations, suggesting that wetland conditions could be maintained under current conditions. Evapotranspiration rates between uplands and lowlands were similar between years and sites, ranging from 2.2 ± 1.8 to 2.5 ± 1.2 mm/day and were largely controlled by climate. These rates were less than nearby older upland systems, suggesting that water balance partitioning will change as vegetation develops. Comparison between years and with natural systems provides insight on how management practices influence hydrologic dynamics and the overall water balance of the SFW. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Experimental determination of REE partition coefficients between zircon,garnet and melt: a key to understanding high‐T crustal processes

The partitioning of rare earth elements (REE) between zircon, garnet and silicate melt was determined using synthetic compositions designed to represent partial melts formed in the lower crust during anatexis. The experiments, performed using internally heated gas pressure vessels at 7 kbar and 900–1000 °C, represent equilibrium partitioning of the middle to heavy REE between zircon and garnet during high‐grade metamorphism in the mid to lower crust. The D_REE (zircon/garnet) values show a clear partitioning signature close to unity from Gd to Lu. Because the light REE have low concentrations in both minerals, values are calculated from strain modelling of the middle to heavy REE experimental data; these results show that zircon is favoured over garnet by up to two orders of magnitude. The resulting general concave‐up shape to the partitioning pattern across the REE reflects the preferential incorporation of middle REE into garnet, with D_Gd (zircon/garnet) ranging from 0.7 to 1.1, D_Ho (zircon/garnet) from 0.4 to 0.7 and D_Lu (zircon/garnet) from 0.6 to 1.3. There is no significant temperature dependence in the zircon–garnet REE partitioning at 7 kbar and 900–1000 °C, suggesting that these values can be applied to the interpretation of zircon–garnet equilibrium and timing relationships in the ultrahigh‐T metamorphism of low‐Ca pelitic and aluminous granulites.     

Diagnosing snow accumulation errors in a rain‐snow transitional environment with snow board observations

Diagnosing the source of errors in snow models requires intensive observations, a flexible model framework to test competing hypotheses, and a methodology to systematically test the dominant snow processes. We present a novel process‐based approach to diagnose model errors through an example that focuses on snow accumulation processes (precipitation partitioning, new snow density, and snow compaction). Twelve years of meteorological and snow board measurements were used to identify the main source of model error on each snow accumulation day. Results show that modeled values of new snow density were outside observational uncertainties in 52% of days available for evaluation, while precipitation partitioning and compaction were in error 45% and 16% of the time, respectively. Precipitation partitioning errors mattered more for total winter accumulation during the anomalously warm winter of 2014–2015, when a higher fraction of precipitation fell within the temperature range where partition methods had the largest error. These results demonstrate how isolating individual model processes can identify the primary source(s) of model error, which helps prioritize future research.