Elevation Dependence of Winter Wheat Production in Eastern Washington State with Climate Change: A Methodological Study

Crop growth models, used in climate change impact assessments to project production on a local scale, can obtain the daily weather information to drive them from models of the Earth's climate. General Circulation Models (GCMs), often used for this purpose, provide weather information for the entire globe but often cannot depict details of regional climates especially where complex topography plays an important role in weather patterns. The U.S. Pacific Northwest is an important wheat growing region where climate patterns are difficult to resolve with a coarse scale GCM. Here, we use the PNNL Regional Climate Model (RCM) which uses a sub-grid parameterization to resolve the complex topography and simulate meteorology to drive the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) crop model. The climate scenarios were extracted from the PNNL-RCM baseline and 2 × CO₂ simulationsfor each of sixteen 90 km² grid cells of the RCM, with differentiation byelevation and without correction for climate biases. The dominant agricultural soil type and farm management practices were established for each grid cell. Using these climate and management data in EPIC, we simulated winter wheat production in eastern Washington for current climate conditions (baseline) and a 2 × CO₂ `greenhouse' scenario of climate change.Dryland wheat yields for the baseline climate averaged 4.52 Mg ha^–1 across the study region. Yields were zero at high elevations where temperatures were too low to allow the crops to mature. The highest yields (7.32 Mgha^–1) occurred at intermediate elevations with sufficientprecipitation and mild temperatures. Mean yield of dryland winter wheat increased to 5.45 Mg ha^–1 for the 2 × CO₂ climate, which wasmarkedly warmer and wetter. Simulated yields of irrigated wheat were generally higher than dryland yields and followed the same pattern but were, of course, less sensitive to increases in precipitation. Increases in dryland and irrigated wheat yields were due, principally, to decreases in the frequency of temperature and water stress. This study shows that the elevation of a farm is a more important determinant of yield than farm location in eastern Washington and that climate changes would affect wheat yields at all farms in the study.     

The skill of atmospheric linear inverse models in hindcasting the Madden–Julian Oscillation

A suite of statistical atmosphere-only linear inverse models of varying complexity are used to hindcast recent MJO events from the Year of Tropical Convection and the Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on Intraseasonal Variability/Dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation mission periods, as well as over the 2000–2009 time period. Skill exists for over two weeks, competitive with the skill of some numerical models in both bivariate correlation and root-mean-squared-error scores during both observational mission periods. Skill is higher during mature Madden–Julian Oscillation conditions, as opposed to during growth phases, suggesting that growth dynamics may be more complex or non-linear since they are not as well captured by a linear model. There is little prediction skill gained by including non-leading modes of variability.     

A Review of Thunderstorm Trends across Southern Ontario,Canada

Despite their potential impact, trends in thunderstorm occurrence in Canada have not received scientific scrutiny, one of the reasons for this likely being lack of data availability. A previous study showed thunderstorm observations at eight staffed weather stations in southern Ontario, Canada, to be accurate for distances within 10?km. We used hourly thunderstorm data from these stations and one additional station to determine whether a trend exists in the thunderstorm record in this region. A Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen approach determined that although some stations do have trends in number of thunderstorm hours per year over this time, a consistent increase in the number of thunderstorms that might be expected in a warming climate is not seen. Daily precipitation totals and maximum wind gust speeds were also used as proxies for thunderstorm intensity, neither of which confirmed an increase in the intensity of thunderstorms at these sites over the time period.     

Intercomparison of Sensible Heat Flux from Large Aperture Scintillometer and Eddy Covariance Methods: Field Experiment over a Homogeneous Semi-arid Region

Scintillometers are becoming increasingly popular for the validation of satellite remote sensing sensible heat-flux estimates due to the comparable spatial resolutions. However, it is important to gain confidence in the accuracy of the sensible heat-flux measurements obtained by the scintillometer. Large aperture scintillometer (LAS) and eddy-covariance (EC) measurements were collected over a homogeneous, dry and semi-arid region near Las Cruces, New Mexico, USA, where the homogeneity allowed direct comparison of the two instruments despite their differences in footprint sizes. The differences between the sensible heat-flux measured by both LAS and EC systems fall within the differences between two EC systems. We conclude that the large aperture scintillometer is a reliable system for measuring sensible heat flux in a dry semiarid region.     

On the generation of climate model ensembles

Climate model ensembles are used to estimate uncertainty in future projections, typically by interpreting the ensemble distribution for a particular variable probabilistically. There are, however, different ways to produce climate model ensembles that yield different results, and therefore different probabilities for a future change in a variable. Perhaps equally importantly, there are different approaches to interpreting the ensemble distribution that lead to different conclusions. Here we use a reduced-resolution climate system model to compare three common ways to generate ensembles: initial conditions perturbation, physical parameter perturbation, and structural changes. Despite these three approaches conceptually representing very different categories of uncertainty within a modelling system, when comparing simulations to observations of surface air temperature they can be very difficult to separate. Using the twentieth century CMIP5 ensemble for comparison, we show that initial conditions ensembles, in theory representing internal variability, significantly underestimate observed variance. Structural ensembles, perhaps less surprisingly, exhibit over-dispersion in simulated variance. We argue that future climate model ensembles may need to include parameter or structural perturbation members in addition to perturbed initial conditions members to ensure that they sample uncertainty due to internal variability more completely. We note that where ensembles are over- or under-dispersive, such as for the CMIP5 ensemble, estimates of uncertainty need to be treated with care.     

The representative concentration pathways: an overview

This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m². The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and emission inventory experts. The resulting product forms a comprehensive data set with high spatial and sectoral resolutions for the period extending to 2100. Land use and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are reported mostly at a 0.5?×?0.5 degree spatial resolution, with air pollutants also provided per sector (for well-mixed gases, a coarser resolution is used). The underlying integrated assessment model outputs for land use, atmospheric emissions and concentration data were harmonized across models and scenarios to ensure consistency with historical observations while preserving individual scenario trends. For most variables, the RCPs cover a wide range of the existing literature. The RCPs are supplemented with extensions (Extended Concentration Pathways, ECPs), which allow climate modeling experiments through the year 2300. The RCPs are an important development in climate research and provide a potential foundation for further research and assessment, including emissions mitigation and impact analysis.     

The Energy Balance Experiment EBEX-2000. Part I: overview and energy balance

An overview of the Energy Balance Experiment (EBEX-2000) is given. This experiment studied the ability of state-of-the-art measurements to close the surface energy balance over a surface (a vegetative canopy with large evapotranspiration) where closure has been difficult to obtain. A flood-irrigated cotton field over uniform terrain was used, though aerial imagery and direct flux measurements showed that the surface still was inhomogeneous. All major terms of the surface energy balance were measured at nine sites to characterize the spatial variability across the field. Included in these observations was an estimate of heat storage in the plant canopy. The resultant imbalance still was 10%, which exceeds the estimated measurement error. We speculate that horizontal advection in the layer between the canopy top and our flux measurement height may cause this imbalance, though our estimates of this term using our measurements resulted in values less than what would be required to balance the budget. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is supported by the National Science Foundation     

Convection and cloud formation over snow-covered surface

This paper discusses the vapor-driven convection over snow and its limitations. It is shown on the basis of the moist convective plume model that vapor flux from the evaporating snow surface can drive convection, and maintain a super-cooled water cloud layer, without the assistance of heat flux from the surface, or entrainment or radiative cooling, at cloud top.Since the saturation vapor pressure over water is higher than that over ice, the base of the super-cooled water cloud has a lower limiting height. When the cloud base is lowered to this height, the air at the bottom of the convective layer is just saturated with respect to ice and the evaporation of snow stops, as does the vapor-driven convection. This limiting cloud base height varies with snow-surface temperature. The lower the snow temperature, the higher the cloud base height limit for continued convective transfer from the surface.     

Diamondiferous peridotitic microxenoliths from the Diavik Diamond Mine, NT

Twenty-five diamonds recovered from 21 diamondiferous peridotitic micro-xenoliths from the A154 South and North kimberlite pipes at Diavik (Slave Craton) match the general peridotitic diamond production at this mine with respect to colour, carbon isotopic composition, and nitrogen concentrations and aggregation states. Based on garnet compositions, the majority of the diamondiferous microxenoliths is lherzolitic (G9) in paragenesis, in stark contrast to a predominantly harzburgitic (G10) inclusion paragenesis for the general diamond production. For garnet inclusions in diamonds from A154 South, the lherzolitic paragenesis, compared to the harzburgitic paragenesis, is distinctly lower in Cr content. For microxenolith garnets, however, Cr contents for garnets of both the parageneses are similar and match those of the harzburgitic inclusion garnets. Assuming that the microxenolith diamonds reflect a sample of the general diamond population, the abundant Cr-rich lherzolitic garnets formed via metasomatic overprinting of original harzburgitic diamond sources subsequent to diamond formation, conversion of original harzburgitic diamond sources occurred in the course of metasomatic overprint re-fertilization. Metasomatic overprinting after diamond formation is supported by the finding of a highly magnesian olivine inclusion (Fo₉₅) in a microxenolith diamond that clearly formed in a much more depleted environment than indicated by the composition of its microxenolith host. Chondrite normalized REE patterns of microxenolith garnets are predominantly sinusoidal, similar to observations for inclusion garnets. Sinusoidal REE_N patterns are interpreted to indicate a relatively mild metasomatic overprint through a highly fractionated (very high LREE/HREE) fluid. The predominance of such patterns may explain why the proposed metasomatic conversion of harzburgite to lherzolite appears to have had no destructive effect on diamond content. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Oxidation state of the lithospheric mantle beneath Diavik diamond mine, central Slave craton, NWT, Canada

Oxygen fugacity (fO₂) conditions were determined for 29 peridotite xenoliths from the A154-North and A154-South kimberlites of the Diavik diamond mine using the newly developed flank method modified specifically for measuring Fe³⁺ in mantle-derived pyropic garnets. The results indicate that the garnet-bearing lithospheric mantle beneath the central Slave craton is vertically layered with respect to oxidation state. The shallow (<140 km), “ultra-depleted” layer is the most oxidized section of garnet-bearing subcratonic mantle thus far measured, up to one log unit more oxidizing relative to the FMQ buffer [Δlog fO₂ (FMQ) + 1]. The lower, more fertile layer has fO₂ conditions that extend down to Δlog fO₂ (FMQ) − 3.8, consistent with xenolith suites from other localities worldwide. Based on trace element concentrations in garnets, two distinct metasomatic events affected the mantle lithosphere at Diavik. An oxidized fluid imparted sinusoidal chondrite-normalized REE patterns on garnets throughout the entire depth range sampled. In contrast, a reducing melt metasomatic event affected only the lower portion of the lithospheric mantle. The fO₂ state of the Diavik mantle sample suggests that diamond formation occurred by reduction of carbonate by fluids arising from beneath the lithosphere.