Patterns of Seagrass and Sediment Nutrient Distribution Suggest Anthropogenic Enrichment in Laamu Atoll, Republic of Maldives

Sampling of seagrass cover and sediment nutrients was undertaken in lagoonal habitats of Laamu Atoll (Republic of Maldives) adjacent to three traditional fishing villages (fishing the predominant economic activity for more than 30 yr), three other villages (not traditional landing sites), and four uninhabited islands to determine if chronic input of organic fishing waste from the traditional fishing villages could explain spatial distribution of seagrass cover. Results indicated significantly greater cover of seagrass at the traditional fishing village sites than the other two site groups. Analysis of dried sediments showed sediments at traditional fishing village sites were significantly enriched with phosphorus, though no significant difference in nitrogen was found between groups of sites. These results, together with studies showing that sediment nutrient pools can limit seagrass bed development, suggest that anthropogenic enrichment of lagoonal sediments by fishing waste over generational time scales may have caused substantial proliferation of seagrass beds.     

Cosmological evolution and hierarchical galaxy formation

We calculate the rate at which dark matter haloes merge to form higher mass systems. Two complementary derivations using Press–Schechter theory are given, both of which result in the same equation for the formation rate. First, a derivation using the properties of the Brownian random walks within the framework of Press–Schechter theory is presented. We then use Bayes' theorem to obtain the same result from the standard Press–Schechter mass function. The rate obtained is shown to be in good agreement with results from Monte Carlo and N -body simulations. We illustrate the usefulness of this formula by calculating the expected cosmological evolution in the rate of star formation that is due to short-lived, merger-induced starbursts. The calculated evolution is well-matched to the observed evolution in ultraviolet luminosity density, in contrast to the lower rates of evolution that are derived from semi-analytic models that do not include a dominant contribution from starbursts. Hence we suggest that the bulk of the observed ultraviolet starlight at z >1 arises from merger-induced starbursts. Finally, we show that a simple merging-halo model can also account for the bulk of the observed evolution in the comoving quasar space density.     

Bayesian geological and geophysical data fusion for the construction and uncertainty quantification of 3D geological models

Traditional approaches to develop 3D geological models employ a mix of quantitative and qualitative scientific techniques,which do not fully provide quantification of uncertainty in the constructed models and fail to optimally weight geological field observations against constraints from geophysical data.Here,using the Bayesian Obsidian software package,we develop a methodology to fuse lithostratigraphic field observations with aeromagnetic and gravity data to build a 3D model in a small(13.5 km×13.5 km)region of the Gascoyne Province,Western Australia.Our approach is validated by comparing 3D model results to independently-constrained geological maps and cross-sections produced by the Geological Survey of Western Australia.By fusing geological field data with aeromagnetic and gravity surveys,we show that 89%of the modelled region has>95%certainty for a particular geological unit for the given model and data.The boundaries between geological units are characterized by narrow regions with<95%certainty,which are typically 400-1000 m wide at the Earth's surface and 500-2000 m wide at depth.Beyond~4 km depth,the model requires geophysical survey data with longer wavelengths(e.g.,active seismic)to constrain the deeper subsurface.Although Obsidian was originally built for sedimentary basin problems,there is reasonable applicability to deformed terranes such as the Gascoyne Province.Ultimately,modification of the Bayesian engine to incorporate structural data will aid in developing more robust 3D models.Nevertheless,our results show that surface geological observations fused with geophysical survey data can yield reasonable 3D geological models with narrow uncertainty regions at the surface and shallow subsurface,which will be especially valuable for mineral exploration and the development of 3D geological models under cover.     

Elevation Dependence of Winter Wheat Production in Eastern Washington State with Climate Change: A Methodological Study

Crop growth models, used in climate change impact assessments to project production on a local scale, can obtain the daily weather information to drive them from models of the Earth's climate. General Circulation Models (GCMs), often used for this purpose, provide weather information for the entire globe but often cannot depict details of regional climates especially where complex topography plays an important role in weather patterns. The U.S. Pacific Northwest is an important wheat growing region where climate patterns are difficult to resolve with a coarse scale GCM. Here, we use the PNNL Regional Climate Model (RCM) which uses a sub-grid parameterization to resolve the complex topography and simulate meteorology to drive the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) crop model. The climate scenarios were extracted from the PNNL-RCM baseline and 2 × CO₂ simulationsfor each of sixteen 90 km² grid cells of the RCM, with differentiation byelevation and without correction for climate biases. The dominant agricultural soil type and farm management practices were established for each grid cell. Using these climate and management data in EPIC, we simulated winter wheat production in eastern Washington for current climate conditions (baseline) and a 2 × CO₂ `greenhouse' scenario of climate change.Dryland wheat yields for the baseline climate averaged 4.52 Mg ha^–1 across the study region. Yields were zero at high elevations where temperatures were too low to allow the crops to mature. The highest yields (7.32 Mgha^–1) occurred at intermediate elevations with sufficientprecipitation and mild temperatures. Mean yield of dryland winter wheat increased to 5.45 Mg ha^–1 for the 2 × CO₂ climate, which wasmarkedly warmer and wetter. Simulated yields of irrigated wheat were generally higher than dryland yields and followed the same pattern but were, of course, less sensitive to increases in precipitation. Increases in dryland and irrigated wheat yields were due, principally, to decreases in the frequency of temperature and water stress. This study shows that the elevation of a farm is a more important determinant of yield than farm location in eastern Washington and that climate changes would affect wheat yields at all farms in the study.     

The Energy Balance Experiment EBEX-2000. Part I: overview and energy balance

An overview of the Energy Balance Experiment (EBEX-2000) is given. This experiment studied the ability of state-of-the-art measurements to close the surface energy balance over a surface (a vegetative canopy with large evapotranspiration) where closure has been difficult to obtain. A flood-irrigated cotton field over uniform terrain was used, though aerial imagery and direct flux measurements showed that the surface still was inhomogeneous. All major terms of the surface energy balance were measured at nine sites to characterize the spatial variability across the field. Included in these observations was an estimate of heat storage in the plant canopy. The resultant imbalance still was 10%, which exceeds the estimated measurement error. We speculate that horizontal advection in the layer between the canopy top and our flux measurement height may cause this imbalance, though our estimates of this term using our measurements resulted in values less than what would be required to balance the budget. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is supported by the National Science Foundation     

Convection and cloud formation over snow-covered surface

This paper discusses the vapor-driven convection over snow and its limitations. It is shown on the basis of the moist convective plume model that vapor flux from the evaporating snow surface can drive convection, and maintain a super-cooled water cloud layer, without the assistance of heat flux from the surface, or entrainment or radiative cooling, at cloud top.Since the saturation vapor pressure over water is higher than that over ice, the base of the super-cooled water cloud has a lower limiting height. When the cloud base is lowered to this height, the air at the bottom of the convective layer is just saturated with respect to ice and the evaporation of snow stops, as does the vapor-driven convection. This limiting cloud base height varies with snow-surface temperature. The lower the snow temperature, the higher the cloud base height limit for continued convective transfer from the surface.     

The skill of atmospheric linear inverse models in hindcasting the Madden–Julian Oscillation

A suite of statistical atmosphere-only linear inverse models of varying complexity are used to hindcast recent MJO events from the Year of Tropical Convection and the Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on Intraseasonal Variability/Dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation mission periods, as well as over the 2000–2009 time period. Skill exists for over two weeks, competitive with the skill of some numerical models in both bivariate correlation and root-mean-squared-error scores during both observational mission periods. Skill is higher during mature Madden–Julian Oscillation conditions, as opposed to during growth phases, suggesting that growth dynamics may be more complex or non-linear since they are not as well captured by a linear model. There is little prediction skill gained by including non-leading modes of variability.     

A Review of Thunderstorm Trends across Southern Ontario,Canada

Despite their potential impact, trends in thunderstorm occurrence in Canada have not received scientific scrutiny, one of the reasons for this likely being lack of data availability. A previous study showed thunderstorm observations at eight staffed weather stations in southern Ontario, Canada, to be accurate for distances within 10?km. We used hourly thunderstorm data from these stations and one additional station to determine whether a trend exists in the thunderstorm record in this region. A Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen approach determined that although some stations do have trends in number of thunderstorm hours per year over this time, a consistent increase in the number of thunderstorms that might be expected in a warming climate is not seen. Daily precipitation totals and maximum wind gust speeds were also used as proxies for thunderstorm intensity, neither of which confirmed an increase in the intensity of thunderstorms at these sites over the time period.